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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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If the GFS had been showing something consistently and it was different than the Euro then I could understand some saying it may cave to it but the GFS hasn't had the same thing in back to back runs this entire time.  Hard for Euro to cave to the GFS when the GFS doesn't even know what it will show in 6 hours.  IMO

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Will the Euro blink? place your bets

Ok, I'll be positive... The euro will hold.

No wammies, no wammies!

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Still a chance that day 4 overrunning precip does produce snow somewhere in the SE, the day 5/6 event is hanging on by a Euro thread.

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This hobby is so disappointing sometimes. You get geared up for a good model run, because it's fun to see it come in together. And then you get the garbage like the GFS today. It takes all the fun out of it. Hopefully, the Euro will hold serve.

HM mentioned that big PV dropping down in central Canada that would have a negative impact on the ability of confluence to remain in place in the NE. He said if that feature remains/presses south, it would support HP moving out more quickly than the models had been indicating. He said that the other day, and I think I'm interpreting it correctly.

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This hobby is so disappointing sometimes. You get geared up for a good model run, because it's fun to see it come in together. And then you get the garbage like the GFS today. It takes all the fun out of it. Hopefully, the Euro will hold serve.

HM mentioned that big PV dropping down in central Canada that would have a negative impact on the ability of confluence to remain in place in the NE. He said if that feature remains/presses south, it would support HP moving out more quickly than the models had been indicating. He said that the other day, and I think I'm interpreting it correctly.

You are correct about HM.  Here's what he said just now:

 

 

We'll see how ensemble mean trends look with this pv that gets displaced from actual north pole. Today, GFS says it drops into Hudson Bay! Ugh...it ruins the hybrid west NAO. So, huge changes...

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Hey James, do you have the EURO ensemble information from last night for our area?  Also, Robert posted a video on youtube for anyone who's interested:

 

The EPS mean is 6.5" or so.  All  51 members show snow and it looks like all but 7 show >2" of snow.  The 10:1 mean actually ticked down a little from 12z yesterday, but last night's run likely included more IP/ZR that wasn't actually snow while the 00z Euro was undoubtedly cooler and probably an all-snow event.  It was a better run.  All-in-all, it's an impressive signal for day 5.

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This hobby is so disappointing sometimes. You get geared up for a good model run, because it's fun to see it come in together. And then you get the garbage like the GFS today. It takes all the fun out of it. Hopefully, the Euro will hold serve.

HM mentioned that big PV dropping down in central Canada that would have a negative impact on the ability of confluence to remain in place in the NE. He said if that feature remains/presses south, it would support HP moving out more quickly than the models had been indicating. He said that the other day, and I think I'm interpreting it correctly.

I'm hoping this storm works out but I've had my guard up with this so if it doesn't work out I won't be disappointed. To be honest I'm about ready for some sunny, warm days.

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The EPS mean is 6.5" or so.  All  51 member show snow and it looks like all but 7 show >2" of snow.  The 10:1 mean actually ticked down a little from 12z yesterday, but last night's run likely included more IP/ZR that wasn't actually snow while the 00z Euro was undoubtedly cooler and probably an all-snow event.  It was a better run.  All-in-all, it's an impressive signal for day 5.

 

Thanks James.  Let's see if we can get it to hold for 4-5 more days!  There is no way that all of these models are going to hold the same scenario.  Alan said that the southern energy won't be sampled until Sunday.  I'm trying not to go all in and be reasonable until about 60-72 hours before gametime.  I hope it doesn't get too ugly with either the cliff divers or an icestorm!  :yikes:

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so, let me get this right. I should be panicking...because of the gfs?

Well, let me see here..... Yep, that's about right. :)

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so, let me get this right. I should be panicking...because of the gfs?

No way....but throw in the Ukie, the Canadian, and in about 1.25 hours, the Euro, you might want to grab the towel. :(

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No way....but throw in the Ukie, the Canadian, and in about 1.25 hours, the Euro, you might want to grab the towel. :(

Did the Canadian show the same?

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so, let me get this right. I should be panicking...because of the gfs?

I am going to go with the best model we have in its best range until I have a reason not to.

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"But this is the Euro's time frame - this is where it shines."

 

"GFS always loses the storm only to come back to the Euro 2 days out."

 

So someone school me here. Level the playing field and erase your biases for a few moments. Don't throw your stats and charts and pies at me. Leave out the links to "model verification" scores. Just think back and tell me two things:

 

(1) List some genuine examples of this happening in the last three years (i.e. Sandy)? Good, solid examples in which the GFS clearly came back on board and joined the Euro on a solution that was modeled 5-10 days out. I know there are some, so let's make it black and white.

 

(2) For as many as can be remembered, what was the flow like for the above examples (personally, I am curious to know how many occurred during a split flow)?

 

Take the "fanboy" element out of the equation for a minute. I'm legitimately asking these questions to learn a thing or two, and I will gladly accept the results, however they may fall.

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Did the Canadian show the same?

 

It's definitely not the same as the GFS.  I'm not sure if the trend is good on it, though.  Still looks like a good hit for us (Mid-Atlantic folks won't like it, though), though I'll have to wait for better maps.

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The GGEM looks good to me.  Perfect Miller A track.  The HP slides out some and it's likely warmer than 00z, but I still think it's good for the western half of NC/NW SC.  We'll see.

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Thanks for the updates on the Canadian. I'll be out of this meeting soon and can take a look at my maps.

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"But this is the Euro's time frame - this is where it shines."

"GFS always loses the storm only to come back to the Euro 2 days out."

So someone school me here. Level the playing field and erase your biases for a few moments. Don't throw your stats and charts and pies at me. Leave out the links to "model verification" scores. Just think back and tell me two things:

(1) List some genuine examples of this happening in the last three years (i.e. Sandy)? Good, solid examples in which the GFS clearly came back on board and joined the Euro on a solution that was modeled 5-10 days out. I know there are some, so let's make it black and white.

(2) For as many as can be remembered, what was the flow like for the above examples (personally, I am curious to know how many occurred during a split flow)?

Take the "fanboy" element out of the equation for a minute. I'm legitimately asking these questions to learn a thing or two, and I will gladly accept the results, however they may fall.

Lol! Agreed!

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Per a met in the MA forum:

Yeah, I was just going off of the quote you posted. #BB Looking at the model output now, it doesn't look too bad, actually.

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Thanks for the updates on the Canadian. I'll be out of this meeting soon and can take a look at my maps.

 

I will say the trend on it might be a bit concerning.  The HP definitely does slide out faster.  The low tracks from south of New Orleans to Jacksonville to off of Cape Hatteras and deepens to a 1006 mb LP at hr 144 as it moves away from us.  I'd have to think it's a good hit, verbatim, though (especially the further north and west you are).

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I will say the trend on it might be a bit concerning. The HP definitely does slide out faster. The low tracks from south of New Orleans to Jacksonville to off of Cape Hatteras and deepens to a 1006 mb LP at hr 144 as it moves away from us. I'd have to think it's a good hit, verbatim, though (especially the further north and west you are).

Thanks James!

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I will say the trend on it might be a bit concerning.  The HP definitely does slide out faster.  The low tracks from south of New Orleans to Jacksonville to off of Cape Hatteras and deepens to a 1006 mb LP at hr 144 as it moves away from us.  I'd have to think it's a good hit, verbatim, though (especially the further north and west you are).

 

If we can't get snow out of that perfect track, we stink!

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"But this is the Euro's time frame - this is where it shines."

"GFS always loses the storm only to come back to the Euro 2 days out."

So someone school me here. Level the playing field and erase your biases for a few moments. Don't throw your stats and charts and pies at me. Leave out the links to "model verification" scores. Just think back and tell me two things:

(1) List some genuine examples of this happening in the last three years (i.e. Sandy)? Good, solid examples in which the GFS clearly came back on board and joined the Euro on a solution that was modeled 5-10 days out. I know there are some, so let's make it black and white.

(2) For as many as can be remembered, what was the flow like for the above examples (personally, I am curious to know how many occurred during a split flow)?

Take the "fanboy" element out of the equation for a minute. I'm legitimately asking these questions to learn a thing or two, and I will gladly accept the results, however they may fall.

Bevo, I *believe* the event we had a week and a half ago where eastern NC got some snow, the Euro was pretty decent on moisture for the most part. The GFS was way suppressed initially, which was what I really liked. It eventually came onboard. However, the Euro had a big honking snowstorm for a couple of runs and then it fell in line with the "no moisture" solution. I *believe* it was the first to come back with something. It was a +PNA pattern with a SW diving pretty far south and west before moving east.

This is just going from memory, so I could be off on some of the details. This was the only real decent winter storm this winter, so in my mind, at least this year, the sample size is small.

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