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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,


weathafella

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Synoptically, the Euro and GFS are worlds apart.

 

The Euro solution essentially puts the shortwave through a meat grinder based on how the PV over Labrador/Hudson Bay orients itself. The result is you get a mid level low that makes it to Pittsburgh and essentially falls apart. You're left with a fairly strong mid level front that stretches from the PA Turnpike to south of SNE with a thump of QPF along and north of it. The solution is not as "juicy" but definitely colder as the shortwave responsible for all this damps out.

 

The GFS, on the otherhand, has your typical SWFE with the s/w remaining relatively in tact and the 850mb low ramming northeast toward CYUL. 

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It will for you if the euro/Canadian/ukmet are right lol.

I tend to be in your party saying this may still have time to come back north. Such small little waffles in track could easily misguide some people in the South into thinking they will get more snow. If that secondary tracks like it has @ 12z I'll be pushing powder rather than slop. I'll take either. Dying for something that drops at least 6". I think you sit in one of the more tricky spots out of everyone. Tough forecast for you there.

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I tend to be in your party saying this may still have time to come back north. Such small little waffles in track could easily misguide some people in the South into thinking they will get more snow. If that secondary tracks like it has @ 12z I'll be pushing powder rather than slop. I'll take either. Dying for something that drops at least 6". I think you sit in one of the more tricky spots out of everyone. Tough forecast for you there.

The only tricky thing is the track. I'll do whatever Logan will do. It probably will tick north a bit. However if the confluence remains there...then it may change that.

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Well, Mike I intimated that something must be up with that analog....I certainly don't expect over 1', anywhere.

VD 2000 makes much more sense.

 

I know--I was just joshin' with you.

 

Euro is near the BM.

 

Congrats--give me inside.

 

MPM will get to put away his shawl.

 

Never.

 

Toasty out there today.

 

37.2/23

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I can't believe how much snow is OTG down in the south shore. It's just patches at home and a solid 3-4" down there. My area is a snowpack pit because of that dam hill and exposure.

I assume your in Weymouth rather than S Weymouth. I imagine snowfall totals are actually marginally higher near the air station versus 3a. Maybe actually more than marginal.

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I assume your in Weymouth rather than S Weymouth. I imagine snowfall totals are actually marginally higher near the air station versus 3a. Maybe actually more than marginal.

S Weymouth is Weymouth....only the southern part of it. It has more to do with them getting about 7" more snow down here combined last week and the week before. That will make a difference. Also wooded areas hold it better.

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I remember that the NAM kept really underdoing the LLJ in those swfe of '08 and '09.....it kept pulling the football from the nyc crowd, and they bought it every time :lol:

The climo for storms like these is worlds better for you guys than it is for us. The further NE you can get, the better. It'll probably end up that way again with this one. I guess our hope is that the progressive pattern keeps it from amplifying that much and the CAD causes the low to transfer quicker than the GFS has. The GFS is just brutal down here-an hour of snow maybe, then ice inland and a soaking near the shore.

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