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We are really close to something great. Pineapple express looking to go full throttle with ample cold air to our north. If the models are overdoing the SE ridge at all, it is game on.

 

todays 12z euro hits KY and north of 40 pretty good on day 5, and then destroys the Ozarks day 7-8

 

I don't have pay maps, but it looks like another system setting up well for the tn valley on day 9-10

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John, glad you started this thread.  Forgot to mention your name earlier...but I certainly know you are here and greatly appreciate your input.  The 12z Euro looked pretty good between six and ten days.  W/ cold HP pressure pressing south and the SE ridge pushing north, Ohio to TN will have to keep an eye open!  On with February....

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I'm hoping the major snow pack up north can aid in the colder air not moderating quite as much and it allows any battleground area to set up just over the Apps and a bit south of the Southern Valley areas.

 

I do think the more West you are in the TV region, the better you're looking right now. I've been seeing Mets talking about Apps to Rockies cold air. That usually puts the Western half of Tennessee in a favorable position.

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The frozen precip line wavers between the Ohio river and the Tennessee river once again through the long range. Maybe we'll be able to cash in on something frozen during the span.

With this split slow we need something to phase,over all it wasn't a bad run i feel though

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The  Euro at 192 is just perfect in it's placement of the H in the midwest and the L in the GOM. I'm sure that's why things look so great on the precip front. 850s would be good for all except the Southern parts of the TV region. 

 

Hopefully it keeps the storm, and starts bringing it closer and doesn't keep it in the 192-240 range.

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Well, I guess the 850s and 2m temps are both more supportive further south at 180. It's blowing up over the TN Valley by that point. By 192 the L is in the northern GOM and the 850 has moved slightly north. This may be the weenie run of the year for the Euro for us.

 

eurobo10.jpg

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Cold in eastern Canada is interacting with the SE ridge. Might be one of the few model runs, 0z Euro, where the cold to our north wins. I was thinking that set-up looks icy or very rainy. Normally, a strong SE ridge will win every time. Still, the pattern eventually might yield to that type of set-up at some point. Looks like an overrunning scenario for the Ohio Valley or upper South. Cosgrove has been saying Feb 3 time frame looks like thunderstorms and flooding for the valley. Time will tell.

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On that run a 1037mb high comes down from the midwest and shoves the SE Ridge out into the Atlantic. It's as perfect a run as I've saw for here. A bit of a ridging off the West Coast, SE Ridge beaten down, Southern Stream energy heading into the GOM and an Arctic high in the proper position to funnel cold air down to us. I just hope something in that neighborhood actually happens.

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Bastardi tweeted this...with a meteogram for Atlanta that appeared to go into March. My biggest question...Brazil has a model?

 

 

 

Watch out south.... the warmup coming is false spring. Brazilian meteogram says more snow on the way. ex: Atl

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Well, I guess the 850s and 2m temps are both more supportive further south at 180. It's blowing up over the TN Valley by that point. By 192 the L is in the northern GOM and the 850 has moved slightly north. This may be the weenie run of the year for the Euro for us.

 

 

 

John - I'm pretty confident there's some sleet on the southern flank there. Pretty much anything south of TN.

 

Surface temps are well below freezing down to the southern periphery of that accum map though. If this is correct - major all modes winter storm for the mid south. Well - really beyond major. It would be historic.

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The 0z Euro ensembles are a thing of beauty.  The op certainly has the support of it's members.

 

Nashville for example, out of 51 members:

 

- All but 2 have measurable snow

- 31 have greater than 2 inches

- 12 have greater than 9 inches

- Several are off the charts

- Mean 5 inches

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The 0z Euro ensembles are a thing of beauty.  The op certainly has the support of it's members.

 

Nashville for example, out of 51 members:

 

- All but 2 have measurable snow

- 31 have greater than 2 inches

- 12 have greater than 9 inches

- Several are off the charts

- Mean 5 inches

Ok, now you are just teasing, what about the same stats for TYS and TRI, heck even Chattanooga?

You have free time this morning to do all this, right?  haha

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I noticed that on previous runs of the GFS our energy has been trending southeastward. It did have it cutting through the Plains and now it cuts through the Southeast. Very important for us if we want snow or a sleet/zr storm. Can't wait for 12z GFS, Euro, and O Canada!

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Ok, now you are just teasing, what about the same stats for TYS and TRI, heck even Chattanooga?

You have free time this morning to do all this, right?  haha

 

Bristol:

- All have measurable snow

- 23 greater than 2

- 10 greater than 9

- Mean 4

 

Chattanooga:

- All but 14 have measurable snow

- 13 greater than 2

- 6 greater than 9

- Mean 2

 

Knoxville:

- All have measurable snow

- 20 greater than 2

- 10 greater than 9

- Mean just under 4

 

Memphis:

- All but 6 have measurable snow

- 31 greater than 2

- 14 greater than 9

- Mean almost 5

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It will be interesting to see the trends in the models over the coming days.  IIRC the best model in a split flow is the Euro, so I hope it's onto something........... and not just ON something.. 

 

If you simply go look at the 0z Euro 500 charts for hour 120, you can see a beautiful system rolling into southern California, just as the northern jet is just beginning to supply a fresh feed of cold air to North America.  By 168, the map is a thing of beauty and would certainly be on the way to setting up a BIG snowfall somewhere within 100-200 miles of what was depicted on the 0z Euro. 

 

My guess is the Euro OP from 0z is about as far south and east as we will see with snowfall, and the probable trend with snowfall would be back further north and west.  I hope I am wrong, but if you look at the 500mb map off the 0z Euro for hour 192, the southern wave goes negative well before the Mississippi river, and then dampens out as it heads basically ENE through western TN/KY (there is a lot of confluence in the east so that's good).  That's usually not a snowfall track for much of east TN.  

 

I guess what I am saying is watch the trends in the coming days.  The OP was beautiful and I hope it's close to right, but it is the long range Euro, and most other modeling is much warmer with the influence of the SE ridge, so let's just sit back and see what happens.

By the way, there is another strong shortwave on its heels coming into southern California (actually the baha it's so far south), so I am just guessing we are not done with chances at winter weather over the coming weeks.  Time will tell, so sit back and enjoy the ride.  I don't think it will be long before we have another "specific threat" thread with something to lose more sleep over.

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My guess is the Euro OP from 0z is about as far south and east as we will see with snowfall, and the probable trend with snowfall would be back further north and west.  I hope I am wrong, but if you look at the 500mb map off the 0z Euro for hour 192, the southern wave goes negative well before the Mississippi river, and then dampens out as it heads basically ENE through western TN/KY (there is a lot of confluence in the east so that's good).  That's usually not a snowfall track for much of east TN.  

 

 

 

That's my fear as well.  It seems a couple of systems this winter have trended south, then nudged back north as we get closer to the event.   I'm confident our region will be close to the battleground over the next couple of weeks.  I just don't know if we'll be the on the losing end or the winning end (finally)!

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The 12z GFS still looks like a new threat will be on the "radar" soon.  It's warm with the first storm (further north than 0z), but an active southern jet and cold pressing in from the north will probably provide opportunity at some point between Feb 5th and 15th.

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The 12z Euro still has "potential".  Just looking at hour 144 at a quick glance, but this one will probably be a warmer version..... a bit further north and west of 0z.  Let's see where it goes

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Yep, at 168 we have a surface low in northwestern AL, looks similar to the GFS.  May turn out well on the clown maps for areas of west TN, but that's just a guess.  Nice negative tilt in central Arkansas.

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Yep, at 168 we have a surface low in northwestern AL, looks similar to the GFS.  May turn out well on the clown maps for areas of west TN, but that's just a guess.  Nice negative tilt in central Arkansas.

Any idea why the Euro does this? Yesterday it did the same thing the 28 midnight run was south of TN then the noon run was North of TN; if I had to guess, I would say the overnight run tonight will be south of TN again

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Any idea why the Euro does this? Yesterday it did the same thing the 28 midnight run was south of TN then the noon run was North of TN; if I had to guess, I would say the overnight run tonight will be south of TN again

No clue, but the one behind this one looks like it could be the real deal.  At 192 (sigh)

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