Zeus Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am rooting for Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does anyone think we can get 6" from Harwich to CHH to ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just 15:1 ratios with .50" of QPF over ACK would yield 7.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP wants to get Cape Cod, MA into the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does anyone think we can get 6" from Harwich to CHH to ACK? I think you can do anything you put your mind to. Except influence the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 would not take a wholesale shift to bring warning snows to the cape Advisories up to the reservation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think you can do anything you put your mind to. Except influence the weather. I never said I could influence the weather, but I think its possible with the 15:1 or 20:1 ratios in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Advisories up to the reservation? They already have them out..up since early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does anyone think we can get 6" from Harwich to CHH to ACK? NWS Taunton does: MAZ024-282330- /O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.140129T0000Z-140129T1800Z/ NANTUCKET MA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NANTUCKET 1030 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...NANTUCKET. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COVER ROADS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NWS Taunton does: MAZ024-282330- /O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.140129T0000Z-140129T1800Z/ NANTUCKET MA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NANTUCKET 1030 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...NANTUCKET. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COVER ROADS It's all ratio dependent imo. 0.25" @ 15-20:1 gets you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not too often I say I will head south to sled..but looks like I will..lol. Have the little one tomorrow and my folks look to get maybe 1-2 on top of the 3-5 already OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's all ratio dependent imo. 0.25" @ 15-20:1 gets you there. This will be a nowcast. I see that all the models this am drop about .25" on me...but I believe it's going to be either a cirrus smoking Ray 40/70 special here, or it'll roll the other way and we get into good banding and get a nice event. I am not sure I can buy the more widespread gradual nature of the snow the models have again in this bitter dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This won't have the nrly drain blowing snow from N-S, Jay. Winds are light through 850 and then SW-WSW at 700mb. There seems to be good 600-500mb VVs. Not exactly where you want it, but perhaps sufficient enough. RAP is interesting, but tends to be a little aggressive beyond 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 This won't have the nrly drain blowing snow from N-S, Jay. Winds are light through 850 and then SW-WSW at 700mb. There seems to be good 600-500mb VVs. Not exactly where you want it, but perhaps sufficient enough. RAP is interesting, but tends to be a little aggressive beyond 12 hrs. Was looking just now at the 15z...IMO it's just the same theme as all other models now aside of the Euro. Wants to keep the best confined to SE Cape Cod/ACK. Seems fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This won't have the nrly drain blowing snow from N-S, Jay. Winds are light through 850 and then SW-WSW at 700mb. There seems to be good 600-500mb VVs. Not exactly where you want it, but perhaps sufficient enough. RAP is interesting, but tends to be a little aggressive beyond 12 hrs. How saturated are the soundings over the area just N of the Canal? Say PYM over to EWB, UUU. That's the fringe area as Scott and I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lot of dry air to overcome...good luck to those in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How saturated are the soundings over the area just N of the Canal? Say PYM over to EWB, UUU. That's the fringe area as Scott and I see it. There is some low level dry air, but pretty saturated from 850 on up at KPYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This won't have the nrly drain blowing snow from N-S, Jay. Winds are light through 850 and then SW-WSW at 700mb. There seems to be good 600-500mb VVs. Not exactly where you want it, but perhaps sufficient enough. RAP is interesting, but tends to be a little aggressive beyond 12 hrs. Got ya. That'll certainly benefit our SE friends then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lot of dry air to overcome...good luck to those in that area There is some low level dry air, but pretty saturated from 850 on up at KPYM. Shows what I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This will be quite interesting watching unfold on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mirror all other guidance and came back NW. Verbatim a coating to an inch or two from Boston/providence down to the canal, 1-3" around the canal and points east building to 4-6" around ACK. Well handled by NWS so far. Euro was very dry last night which is a red flag but it's having a bad hair year with these scrapers (although normally it's best with these dry jobs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 FWIW, Jeremy on WHDH has the canal to about Hyannis in a coating to 1", the outer cape and ack in 1-2"....way lower than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like this southern system is going to deliver the goods to the same strip that has received snow all winter. Advisories going up along coastal NJ (the snow capital of the entire coastal plain this year) for 2-5 inches of snow. It's amazing how patterns seem to repeat as you could literally overlay the maps from the snowfalls since December 20th and the axis of heaviest snow would almost directly overlaps. Delmarva - CNJ - LI - SE MA & Cape. If this thing comes another 20 miles NW then it's on for 6+ for those areas....again. Any chance this thing has oone more surprise up it's sleeve and ticks a bit more NW? Everyone seemed to write off the possibility of even flurries for anywhere but the cape and islands but not expecting minor accumulation to the bos-prov corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I was hoping for a slightly sharper 5h trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mirror all other guidance and came back NW. Verbatim a coating to an inch or two from Boston/providence down to the canal, 1-3" around the canal and points east building to 4-6" around ACK. Well handled by NWS so far. Euro was very dry last night which is a red flag but it's having a bad hair year with these scrapers (although normally it's best with these dry jobs) GGEM is a hair wetter than the RGEM. Maybe 5-10mi further NW with each gradation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nw tickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nw tickle Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.05" creeps up to HFD-PVD-GHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.05" creeps up to HFD-PVD-GHG I cant look but how is it down this way? Can't look because i'm on the wrong machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.05" creeps up to HFD-PVD-GHG W-E gradient ? Is that from ull sliding east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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