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1/29/14 Cape Cod and SE Areas Tuesday Night/Wed AM


Clinch Leatherwood

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I would be interested if I were Scott and points east. Doubtful anything here.

 

It's worthy of a thread with .1 to .45 or so forecast in the S&E 1/4 of the area.  But it's the NAM, and I just don't trust it.

 

Would really want to see the GFS and RGEM both come in back to the NW again this run and of course the King in Exile.

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It's worthy of a thread with .1 to .45 or so forecast in the S&E 1/4 of the area.  But it's the NAM, and I just don't trust it.

 

Would really want to see the GFS and RGEM both come in back to the NW again this run and of course the King in Exile.

Frontogenesis fields are close by.  I could see Phil getting a couple and maybe some for you in my preliminary thinking. I just hate being on the very NW fringe becomes 10-15 mile shift east and it's curtains.

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Frontogenesis fields are close by.  I could see Phil getting a couple and maybe some for you in my preliminary thinking. I just hate being on the very NW fringe becomes 10-15 mile shift east and it's curtains.

 

I hate being anywhere the NAM features snow.  Interesting but will wait for the rest of the suite.  At least if the GFS/RGEM come in again fairly robust.....they can adjust at 11. 

 

NWS was on this like stink on a monkey....

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Could it be a similar situation to the last storm? The difference would be the outer cape gets croaked and people up in Bristol and Plymouth counties see little to nothing?

Doubt it is similiar? I mean that lift was very strong last storm and there was dry air north of system and confluence to nw of that band.

Perhaps Nantucket gets hit hard

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Congrats CC and Messenger on the GFS, Maybe I can get a coating. Came further west than I thought earlier.

 

I'd like to look but I'm paying the premium for this sites models and due to the storm hitting down the coast it's about as reliable as the pony express. :(

 

The 700mb looked very impressive through 33 before it crapped out.  There's still more room here Scott for westward expansion.

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I'd like to look but I'm paying the premium for this sites models and due to the storm hitting down the coast it's about as reliable as the pony express. :(

 

The 700mb looked very impressive through 33 before it crapped out.  There's still more room here Scott for westward expansion.

 

I did like how that s/w was sharper and had more of a curl to it over the Plains. We'll see. 36 hrs or so from the event...I can't see too much more west, but maybe a tad more is possible. 

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I did like how that s/w was sharper and had more of a curl to it over the Plains. We'll see. 36 hrs or so from the event...I can't see too much more west, but maybe a tad more is possible. 

 

It's got some room to wrap up a little more.  Interesting that the w/v and RAP would seem to support a slightly faster pace to the eastward movement than even modeled this evening which would serve to slow things down and improve the timing to the north...allowing for more bend back.  JMHO.

 

BTW, classic euro bias yesterday hanging back the Baja ULL. It always does this...something to keep in mind going forward.

 

Yeah but it got all the models this time.

 

 

This is a significant shift NW in the 0z vs the 18z.  Models are going to play catchup right to the end.

 

 

check 700mb on the 30 hr 0z GFS vs 36 18z....just for a sample of the degree of change and the effect of more interaction with the north.  I like the trend here.

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BTW, classic euro bias yesterday hanging back the Baja ULL. It always does this...something to keep in mind going forward.

I think many were counting on that bias

The euro was the last system i thought that would catch on to this thing.

Did the front hang up further n off the east coast then earlier progs had it (i wonder) . Last weeks system had a arctic front that was moving slower than models had it up until day before system.

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I think many were counting on that bias

The euro was the last system i thought that would catch on to this thing.

Did the front hang up further n off the east coast then earlier progs had it (i wonder) . Last weeks system had a arctic front that was moving slower than models had it up until day before system.

 

UK not biting at all...but I rarely ever look at it.

 

Let's see how it all plays out.  Kevin L on Fox had a forecast of C-2" in SE MA and 2-4" over the Cape.

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NCEP for the win this time. All of the foreign models were holding that back.

Yep to be fair they all showed it. I guess what madero question it, was becauae the EC ensembles had a lot of spread there while the GEFS had very little. That was a red flag to me.

Not that it matters much for MBY, but just something to remember going forward.

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Seems reasonable to me. Net gain

 

I'd like to see the GEFS a tick left of the op again.  And of course the Euro hold or move west.

 

Harv has 0-2" in boston and all of RI, SE CT by Ginxy, 2-4 on the Cape and 3-6 SE Cape

Pete flurries Boston, 1-2" from Marshfield through southern RI and extreme SE CT, 3-4 on the Cape Sandwich east

channel 4  Flurries Boston, C-1" for me al the way back to SE CT and up to Scott, 1-3" on the Cape, 3-4" on ACK

 

 

By far Harv was most aggressive, Pete 2nd, Eric least aggressive.

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I'd like to see the GEFS a tick left of the op again. And of course the Euro hold or move west.

Harv has 0-2" in boston and all of RI, SE CT by Ginxy, 2-4 on the Cape and 3-6 SE Cape

Pete flurries Boston, 1-2" from Marshfield through southern RI and extreme SE CT, 3-4 on the Cape Sandwich east

channel 4 Flurries Boston, C-1" for me al the way back to SE CT and up to Scott, 1-3" on the Cape, 3-4" on ACK

By far Harv was most aggressive, Pete 2nd, Eric least aggressive.

All those options are on the table still it seems, however trends are in your favor still. As long as that continues, there is still a little time to improve some more. I could see this becoming a little low end moderate event for the cape.

Not much hope for more than c-1 an inch up here though I don't think, I'd be mildly excited downin your area though

Could be a nice little event

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All those options are on the table still it seems, however trends are in your favor still. As long as that continues, there is still a little time to improve some more. I could see this becoming a little low end moderate event for the cape.

Not much hope for more than c-1 an inch up here though I don't think, I'd be mildly excited downin your area though

Could be a nice little event

 

one big caution flag though.  Although the RGEM trended NW it's not to the extent of NCEP stuff.  I can see the caution but just got the sense that Harv has seen this enough times to know the drill.  Hope he's right.

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Heavy heavy cirrus for BOS?

Probably or just light snow....but i would take another look 10-1030 on Tuesday just to be sure. It does have enough room IMO to bend back to boston but trying to figure out how hrs s/ws are evolving is akin to herding cats.

I would want to see the euro come west or stay on the 12z to buy the wetter models. Ncep stuff is very prone to 1 or 2 of these runs with these offshore events.

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