Mitchel Volk Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For a week now some of the models and some of the ensembles are suggesting the possibility of a storm coming up the coast. I am still very undecided on this one, but if the winds at 500 back just a little more we would get a storm. So at this time it needs to be watch. Tomorrow runs should start to show it like the last storm, it was pronged to Far East at first. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Trend continues SREFs much more NW (still out of its good range though) - City is .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Trend continues SREFs much more NW (still out of its good range though) - City is .10+ Nj too? Can you post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nj too? Can you post a map? Nice Bump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nj too? Can you post a map? KBLM. .21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21z serfs get light snow back to scranton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Big shift NW on the 21z SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol at the srefs....and the spread is to the west....If we get anything out of this....I'll be jumping on the epic winter train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SREFS may be out of range but wow what a shift. You can almost bet the Nam to shift further NW based on the SREFS. Are there two waves? There's precipitation breaking out over the Carolinas in a couple days and then a much more significant breakout which gets all the way up here by 72-84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I didn't see them but apparently the 18z GEFS individual members were big hits per NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I didn't see them but apparently the 18z GEFS individual members were big hits per NE forum. about 7 were big hits and a few more trending that way - what is encouraging is the models are all trending at the same time - like mitchel said won't take much to get a storm if the 500 winds change in the right direction a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SREFS may be out of range but wow what a shift. You can almost bet the Nam to shift further NW based on the SREFS. Are there two waves? There's precipitation breaking out over the Carolinas in a couple days and then a much more significant breakout which gets all the way up here by 72-84 hrs. It's probably seeing the trough tilt more negative and develop a consolidated coastal low that brushes us, after the initial shot of overrunning precip over the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Very interesting developments going on, will have to see what the other models say and especially the 0z runs. I think the SREFS picked up the previous snow event if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's last Tuesday all over again, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Very interesting developments going on, will have to see what the other models say and especially the 0z runs. I think the SREFS picked up the previous snow event if I'm not mistaken. They were generally more amped than the operational runs. This is getting my attention again, let's see what the 0z models show. If they all show a NW bump, there could be a trend-if they don't really move, I don't see much reason for excitement north of Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0.10" plus contour to about KMMU on the SREF's. Prior run that was SE of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't be too excited about being on the NW fringe on the srefs..ask orange county folks how they did with last weeks storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is premature, but what do you guys think of this scenario? Heavy snow in the south and possibly clipping the New England coastal areas....Dec 2010-ish?Boxing Day? Really? No comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh boy im going on a limb but 0z may just crash the server temporarily again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't be too excited about being on the NW fringe on the srefs..ask orange county folks how they did with last weeks stormYes- please don't. I almost got as much this weekend than I did from last weeks storm- about 3 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't be too excited about being on the NW fringe on the srefs..ask orange county folks how they did with last weeks storm Srefs were printing out 12+ for us with that event. Most finished with 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't be too excited about being on the NW fringe on the srefs..ask orange county folks how they did with last weeks storm Yeah but they are likely still shifting. Just look at the changes from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Boxing Day? Really? No comparison. You're right...I've been looking for storms that dropped a lot of snow in the south but also tracked up the coast...short of 93' I can't find anything realistic other than Dec 10' . There is Feb 1958 and 1969 which do something similar to this storm but they are probably 200-300 miles west of where this storm is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't be too excited about being on the NW fringe on the srefs..ask orange county folks how they did with last weeks storm All storms have sharp cutoffs? Of course not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You're right...I've been looking for storms that dropped a lot of snow in the south but also tracked up the coast...short of 93' I can't find anything realistic other than Dec 10' . There is Feb 1958 and 1969 which do something similar to this storm but they are probably 200-300 miles west of where this storm is now.No worries, typically those storms which produce big for the Deep South stay suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You're right...I've been looking for storms that dropped a lot of snow in the south but also tracked up the coast...short of 93' I can't find anything realistic other than Dec 10' . There is Feb 1958 and 1969 which do something similar to this storm but they are probably 200-300 miles west of where this storm is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z NAM continues to eject southern stream SW east which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Snow breaking out in Louisiana hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh boy im going on a limb but 0z may just crash the server temporarily again I'm already having trouble and getting error messages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm already having trouble and getting error messages Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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