LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Removed Image 03z RAP at Hour 18 (4:00 p.m. tomorrow) looks very good for western NC. Many areas are under a nice band of snow, if the RAP is correct. The trends are once again in our favor for locations north and west of I-85. Someone will be surprised tomorrow with more snow than is forecasted. I wonder if this is the frontogenetic banding that SnowGoose69 hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know this probably will not happen... but I wish it would. Geeze...That is gorgeous. Highly unlikely as stated before but what a mess that would cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ Look at the low placement then to what the RAP shows for tomorrow http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/sfc.20030123.06z.jpg Different setup sure... but low placement saids bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That looks like a bomb waiting to explode, wasn't there a similar scenario in 03 (Jan. 22/23) that bombed out over the NC/SC Piedmont Sure was, I actually remember that storm. 1-3 inches was the forecast, and we actually received 10 inches at my house. The set-up was a little different, but it just goes to show that some interesting things can happen east of the mountains. If the RAP is onto something, some areas may receive more than anyone is forecasting at the moment. I knew this was a possibility and stated it; however, I am still not totally sure it will happen. We will know so much more tomorrow. There are just so many little pieces to this system that will make the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll say! Man, that run REALLY ramped up the QPF and filled it in back over Gulf Coast and then inched west in the Carolinas. Very nice run. CMC looks good...More precip north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sure was, I actually remember that storm. 1-3 inches was the forecast, and we actually received 10 inches at my house. The set-up was a little different, but it just goes to show that some interesting things can happen east of the mountains. If the RAP is onto something, some areas may receive more than anyone is forecasting at the moment. I knew this was a possibility and stated it; however, I am still not totally sure it will happen. We will know so much more tomorrow. There are just so many little pieces to this system that will make the difference. Yes I'm reading the case study and the setup is different, but that Low placement is very similar to 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 CMC looks good...More precip north and west. Yep, looks like 0.5" almost to Chapel Thrill and 0.6" to RDU with 0.7" very close to RDU. 0.25" to CLT and GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 03Z SREF for RDU now has a mean of 6.72 1 member at 0 and 3 at 12+ the 21Z had 3 at 0 one right 10 and 1 over 10 with a mean of 5.27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, looks like 0.5" almost to Chapel Thrill and 0.6" to RDU with 0.7" very close to RDU. 0.25" to CLT and GSO. keeps inching.....models have really been holding to the west trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 keeps inching.....models have really been holding to the west trend... Tug that precip back west and have a Low pressure bomb and we're all in the game. Even if it doesn't bomb out (my favorite term tonight), it should tug that precip every so slightly back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If this first low really does come in closer to the coast vs. the forecast. I wonder what that would mean for the 2nd Gulf wave. Would it also come in closer? Right now it is progged to give Jacksonville wintry precip. on Wed. night. (ZR/IP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the RAP a good model/ tool to use? Alot of people say it's junk and can't be believed. A few day it's a good short term tool to see how precip sets up. Can you totally discount it or use it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 04Z RAP is sticking with a nice band moving through north Georgia. Even moving a bit farther north with precip in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can someone speak to the possible of GC storms or off the coast of GA storms robbing moisture flow? I know that's been a problem in the past. Parallel to the front and not running ahead of it, however, this is a totally different setup. GC convection comes into play when we have a deep shortwave exhibiting neutral to neg tilt tendencies, this is a pos tilt axis throghout. I am concerned about Gulf Stream convection off the Carolina's disrupting moisture transport back into the coastal plain, but was is new. More concerned with plinkers, going to be ticked if I end up with an inch or two of IP and 6" of SN. Highest totals are likely going to be the areas that stay all snow 10-20 miles west of the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the RAP a good model/ tool to use? Alot of people say it's junk and can't be believed. A few day it's a good short term tool to see how precip sets up. Can you totally discount it or use it? I prefer the HRRR, the RAP tends to have a west/north bias as you get closer to 18 hours alot of the time its been noticeably better thel ast year or two, I used to more or less ignore it completely I found it so bad in its RUC days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the RAP a good model/ tool to use? Alot of people say it's junk and can't be believed. A few day it's a good short term tool to see how precip sets up. Can you totally discount it or use it? In the past few winters I've used it, it seems to get the location of banding nearly correct, but the DBZ and expansiveness of the bands never seem to actually verify. I also think the banding shown at the moment on the RAP has a NW bias. I think it'll set up SE of what it's showing at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I prefer the HRRR, the RAP tends to have a west/north bias as you get closer to 18 hours alot of the time its been noticeably better thel ast year or two, I used to more or less ignore it completely I found it so bad in its RUC days. How about how it places surface features like the surface low off of the SE coast? Any bias regarding that? It appears to have it closer (further NW) than other models. If realistic, that would seem to lessen the odds of a severe icestorm in parts of the SAV-CHS corridor somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 In the past few winters I've used it, it seems to get the location of banding nearly correct, but the DBZ and expansiveness of the bands never seem to actually verify. I also think the banding shown at the moment on the RAP has a NW bias. I think it'll set up SE of what it's showing at the moment. I agree, but even with its usual NW bias that band is probably going to end up hitting someone not expected to see a whole lot of snow if it does form...that would likely mean FFC and many of the ATL southern suburbs would get hard, I'd guess somewhere between the airport and MCN is where it would setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I agree, but even with its usual NW bias that band is probably going to end up hitting someone not expected to see a whole lot of snow if it does form...that would likely mean FFC and many of the ATL southern suburbs would get hard, I'd guess somewhere between the airport and MCN is where it would setup. The thought of a heavy band setting up camp right on top of me gives me Jan 2011 flashbacks. Could easily add 4-6 inches to someone's total especially if the band is moving in a position that maximizes their time under it(SW to NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think FFC will add a few more counties to the winter weather advisory overnight. Probably will keep the actual Winter Storm Warning the same. Interesting to see the RAP be pretty consistent with that band! Gives me faint hope for a surprise, but you guys are bringing me back to earth with the talk of a NW bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billypg Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The rap & Hi res Nam hit the banding that got Eastern GVL through Spartanburg, Gaffney, and through Cleveland County, Gaston on through Charlotte. Last year on Feb 16 with the strong snow showers that put down a general 3 inches in that area last year ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the ULL has phased or transferred the convection northward!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the ULL has phased or transferred the convection northward!! Im seeing things; or what is that off the Pacific ocean crashing into the trough on here?: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwertyu Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the ULL has phased or transferred the convection northward!! I don't hardly post, I just read, but i had to chime in here! That is a cool pic.! I've never seen a satellite image from an angle like that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Im seeing things; or what is that off the Pacific ocean crashing into the trough on here?: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html I was thinking the same thing you can really see it here. Where it says "no enhancement" change it to vapor 1. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Im seeing things; or what is that off the Pacific ocean crashing into the trough on here?: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html Have no idea. But it's making me excited! Looks like phasing is occurring! Someone feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Since the HRRR website is down ill post the HRRR in comparison to the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP gives the Western Piedmont and foothills 1"+ of snow by tomorrow afternoon from the initial band. Interesting... It's probably not right, but interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm guessing we are just wanting to see something not there. I suppose if that WV loop deal was real; we'd have an explosion of responses by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 0Z GFS, taken literally would give SAV hardly any ZR! It would be mostly a cold rain with a little IP/S toward the end. The only problem is that it had CHS getting down to 32 15 hours earlier and it at 4-5 degrees colder for much of the storm. Based on old wx maps, that is too much of a differential to persist for many hourswhen there's a setup like this. History tells me that once the Arctic air settles all the way to Savannah and things stabilize with a NNE to N flow bringing the CHS cold air all of the way down to SAV with no real ocean related modification, it almost never has remained 4-5 degrees warmer than CHS for hours on end. It is usually more like 1-2 degrees once things stabilize. So, I am educatedly guessing that they either have CHS too cold by ~2-4 degrees or SAV too warm by 2-4 degrees. I'm thinking the first is most likely but we'll see. SF, your thoughts about all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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