HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have to say, you guys may call me crazy, but i think we could see even more improvement in the models, especially further inland. However, this is only if the stj phases in completely. if this is a trend through the night/tomorrow, this will be a fun ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bufkit gives KSGP around 3"+ of snow during a 19 hour period starting at HR 57. Highest ratio at 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have to say, you guys may call me crazy. But i think we could see even more improvement in the models, especially further inland. However, this is only if the stj phases in completely. if this is a trend through the night/tomorrow, this will be a fun ride. If p003 is onto something, oh yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z gfs gives cae .26 zr, 1.24 ip and 8.3" of snow according to bufkit That might seal the portals shut. Hope it bombs on you, my dear. Especially the sleet. Get you a sled, the streets will be great with what you are describing, especially when the good cold comes in to freeze it solid. Don't know what I'm looking at, but figuring 1/2 the 18z would be more realistic, unless I really am going to get to make an igloo after all these years of dreaming, lol. That would beat your last big snow, right? T Edit: ok, about 7 inches of snow...no sleet. Now that would be disappointing. I need some sleet to ice the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That Bufkit shows 2" of ZR for CHS. That would be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Probably worst weather disaster since Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That Bufkit shows 2" of ZR for CHS. That would be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Probably worst weather disaster since Hugo. I'm hoping this doesn't happen.. That would be catastrophic for this area. Earlier I had heard possible 1" of ZR and that was bad enough but 2"...we'd be without power for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All of the ENC local tv stations paint a decent snow event from Carteret County back to New Bern in Craven County. There is a sharp cutoff with little to nothing from Greenville-west. This blows my mind when you read the forums and see the potential amounts that are being discussed here. I guess the tv mets are always going to be very cautious. Not to be mean... But can you blame us? If I put out a map that showed Columbus, GA getting 8" of snow and we only got 1" then I'd have to hire protection. LOL! You've seen the ebb & flow of emotions from model run to model run on here. It's not good during bad model runs & ecstatic during great runs. We have to temper that emotion and relay a realistic forecast to the public. Besides, wouldn't you rather see your local TV met INCREASE snow totals closer to an event as opposed to DECREASING them? I know I would... PS: I still have a tough time believing a full phase of the two pieces of energy like the 18Z GFS is showing. Can it happen? Sure, but I'm waiting until other models show that possibility. I mean, that run was damn near perfect.. That and it would cause a messy ice/sleet storm to deal with at first for me. haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That Bufkit shows 2" of ZR for CHS. That would be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Probably worst weather disaster since Hugo. good lord. That'd take down 50% of the trees in the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS Bufkit Snowfall Figures (Maximum Temperature in Profile Algorithm + Compaction): Atlanta: 6.4" Charlotte: 7.8" Columbia: 8.5" New Orleans: 3.1" Raleigh: 10.7" Freezing rain falls in such cities as Charleston, Savannah, and Tallahassee. It should be noted that the 18z GFS is the probably the most aggressive solution, so we'll have to see what happens in subsequent runs. Hopefully, a nice snowfall will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What year was the really crippling ice storm in coastal SC. 79-80ish? I remember my dad was in chs for work and trapped there a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That Bufkit shows 2" of ZR for CHS. That would be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Probably worst weather disaster since Hugo. The trees in that area are not equipped to deal with that much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not to be mean... But can you blame us? If I put out a map that showed Columbus, GA getting 8" of snow and we only got 1" then I'd have to hire protection. LOL! You've seen the ebb & flow of emotions from model run to model run on here. It's not good during bad model runs & ecstatic during great runs. We have to temper that emotion and relay a realistic forecast to the public. Besides, wouldn't you rather see your local TV met INCREASE snow totals closer to an event as opposed to DECREASING them? I know I would... PS: I still have a tough time believing a full phase of the two pieces of energy like the 18Z GFS is showing. Can it happen? Sure, but I'm waiting until other models show that possibility. I mean, that run was damn near perfect.. That and it would cause a messy ice/sleet storm to deal with at first for me. haha! I think it best you down play totals for your viewing area, not to alarm people, then up them for me, since I assured you one of these was coming some day...I just didn't figure it to be this year, and you and the sweet spot would phase, not me, lol. Glad you have your job, and not me! Would you half the 18z to be more realistic? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 good lord. That'd take down 50% of the trees in the area... It would be interesting from a met' standpoint, but from any other standpoint it'd be horrible. Anything over .5 of zr starts getting scary. Anything over an inch is crippling. 2 inches is like the great quebec icestorm from the late 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The trees in that area are not equipped to deal with that much ice.Yes , in all seriousness , palm trees are very shallow rooted, and with that much zr, could be like 75% loss of palm trees. They also have alot of long leaf pine trees that would crumble with that accretion of ice. The majestic live oaks should fare a little better , but losing just one of those would be sad because they can be 200+ years old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just checking in for your area for the north to say congrats on this potential historic SE winter storm. For those of you in the cross hairs for heavy ZR, I would prepare for the worst. Ice storms are probably the worst kind of winter event there is. Very pretty, but down right devastating impact wise. Good luck and stay safe. I hope to see some great pictures of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS Bufkit Snowfall Figures (Maximum Temperature in Profile Algorithm + Compaction): Atlanta: 6.4" Charlotte: 7.8" Columbia: 8.5" New Orleans: 3.1" Raleigh: 10.7" Freezing rain falls in such cities as Charleston, Savannah, and Tallahassee. It should be noted that the 18z GFS is the probably the most aggressive solution, so we'll have to see what happens in subsequent runs. Hopefully, a nice snowfall will occur. A eye opener!....Thank you for taking time to stop by & feel free to stay a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS Bufkit Snowfall Figures (Maximum Temperature in Profile Algorithm + Compaction): Atlanta: 6.4" Charlotte: 7.8" Columbia: 8.5" New Orleans: 3.1" Raleigh: 10.7" Freezing rain falls in such cities as Charleston, Savannah, and Tallahassee. It should be noted that the 18z GFS is the probably the most aggressive solution, so we'll have to see what happens in subsequent runs. Hopefully, a nice snowfall will occur. Thanks Don! Drop by and see us again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It would be interesting from a met' standpoint, but from any other standpoint it'd be horrible. Anything over .5 of zr starts getting scary. Anything over an inch is crippling. 2 inches is like the great quebec icestorm from the late 90's. We were over 3 in Atl. I think Canada was over 5 strung out over a number of storms and days, It's the wind that kills you when the totals get up. The weight will just bend and break the limbs straight down, but the wind will do the terror. Pray you don't see much wind when you get those kind of totals Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes , in all seriousness , palm trees are very shallow rooted, and with that much zr, could be like 75% loss of palm trees. They also have alot of long leaf pine trees that would crumble with that accretion of ice. The majestic live oaks should fare a little better , but losing just one of those would be sad because they can be 200+ years old! The moss that hangs off so many trees is gonna be what makes it horrible. It would be like 2002 here only with the tree canopy still out. Just provides more space for ice to accrue instead of it just accruing to a basic bare branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really, if you're in CHS, you would go through almost the same checklist as if it was a cane coming through. Batteries, water if you're on a well, non perishable foods, etc. if you have a lot of meat stockpiled, get a giant cooler and fill it up with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes , in all seriousness , palm trees are very shallow rooted, and with that much zr, could be like 75% loss of palm trees. They also have alot of long leaf pine trees that would crumble with that accretion of ice. The majestic live oaks should fare a little better , but losing just one of those would be sad because they can be 200+ years old! I have a bunch of different palms in front of my house in OKI- 1-1.5" of ZR could really do some damage. The depiction of the 850 vs the 0 C line on the 18z was/is pretty worrisome; this may get somewhat expensive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The moss that hangs off so many trees is gonna be what makes it horrible. It would be like 2002 here only with the tree canopy still out. Just provides more space for ice to accrue instead of it just accruing to a basic bare branch. True! And I think it suppose to be windy!? (20-30)mph! That would be worst case scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A 1/2 inch of ice is the start of major damage so anything over that is critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Greg, I just went from .07 to .67 so something has changed, lol. I'll take half that qpf and back out the door dancing I knew it was coming north, but I won't believe my childhood dreams are finally coming true just yet. I will admit I have the Moles thrumming away in the underground layer, and they are promising me I won't be disappointed!! We'll see what the 0z has to say before I get out the snowflake volleyball, lol. Good times, as long as one remembers nature is mean, and can take it all away, and laugh while tasting your tears T Tony, break that baby out soon! I think you are sitting in a very good spot my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One thing I did notice is the extracted data keeps CHS right around 32. It is hard to keep accretion going efficiently at 32. Ground zero for ZR might be Georgetown or MYR because they stay in the upper 20's for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One thing I did notice is the extracted data keeps CHS right around 32. It is hard to keep accretion going efficiently at 32. Ground zero for ZR might be Georgetown or MYR because they stay in the upper 20's for most of the event. Immediate coastline does look marginal as far as sfc temps go. It's the places just inland 10-20 miles where the temps quickly fall into the 20s where the danger zone lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF out to 42 already looks wetter than the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dare I say it?... but the SREF looks like the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21z SREF is beefing up. Coming in on the model center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like .25 in HKY and .50 - .75 in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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