1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

[crossthread]

Over a foot of snow along the immediate SE North Carolina coastline. A dusting to Raleigh.

We "may" be also dealing with , (Asking a Question here folks---> isentropic; over-running? correct? Meaning Freezing @ the Surface, while upper levels Winds are going West- SW direction, )producing Issues here along the coast also, w/a Warm-nose moving in & out during the event...

ANY MORE NW trends, (say 25-50 miles), We here along the coast get ZR/IP/Cold rain..

[DaculaWeather]

It's been underestimating QPF until about 24-36 hours out and it's been too south and east beyond that period overall

Thank you for visiting our subforum today! I appreciate your insight!

[SnowGoose69]

Big question on the SREF now. Does it stay bullish and lead the way or will fall back?

The SREFs largely sucked in 11-12 and 12-13 after being very good the previous 2 winters, I had more or less assumed the upgrade which I think they had in 2011 killed them but they have made a big comeback this winter leading the way on 2-3 storms, I still prefer them more inside 48 hours though

[Lookout]

The NAM does not do well with overrunning events.  Look at the 700 RH over 90% to get a better idea where precip will be making it to the ground.

if mid level rh is high and you are looking for whether or not it's hitting the ground, It's better to look at 850 to 925mb rh

[RevDodd]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/coldthreats-for-snow-next-week/2430839568001

 

Good video from Bernie Rayno at accu weather, says snow fall maps will come later today.

Matches up nicely with HKY's assessment earlier this morning about the sweet spot. And I do enjoy hearing the word "Fayetteville" used a few times. 

 

I think he's being a bit cautious for accumulations to the south though. I think the cool column will overcome boundary temps at some point.

[Wow]

if mid level rh is high and you are looking for whether or not it's hitting the ground, It's better to look at 850 to 925mb rh

 

Even better, just grab a sounding profile!

 

[JoshM]

9z sref 

 

 

 

 

I hope Dr. No's bias is correct and something like this happens

[Stormsfury]

 

You can see the southerly winds at 850mb here (coastal SC).  Unfortunately, you don't have the closed 850mb low passing to your south like you did with the Feb 2010 storm.

 

 

Well aware of that, any closed contouring is well back into W TX on that 66 hr map.  I think diabatic cooling processes are really going to cool 925-850mb more significantly with the arctic press.

[DopplerWx]

winter storm watch just issued for charleston county.

[bingcrosbyb]

You don't see that every day! 

 

WSW already issued for CHS starting Tuesday afternoon.

[JoshM]

winter storm watch just issued for charleston county.

 

They're excited and they just can't hide it huh

[DaculaWeather]

Here we go!

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
  GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON METRO AREAS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET IN
  EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF
  1/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL
  CREATE DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE
  INCLUDING FIRST RESPONDERS. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES AND
  EVEN STRUCTURES IS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD
  PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE
  ENDING WEDNESDAY.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...10 TO 15 DEGREES.

[WeatherNC]

winter storm watch just issued for charleston county.

 

Indeed, first WFO to pull the trigger.

 

[Snow dog]

9z sref 

 

[mikepie]

Pretty strong wording in that WSW

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL

CREATE DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE

INCLUDING FIRST RESPONDERS. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES AND

EVEN STRUCTURES IS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD

PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS.

[DixieBlizzard]

If you are on the northern fringes of that precip field (south of here), you have to imagine the ratios will certainly be better than 10:1. If virga doesn't kill most of the QPF, there will really be a nice zone of light, fluffy snow that will add up faster.

[rduwx]

I think this may end up a colder version of Dec 2000, I know different setup, but snow probabilities look the same...tough to watch for RDU folks that were here.

 

 

 

That is the exact storm I've been playing in my head also....That was one of the most disappointing storms ever.

[tramadoc]

This is the latest from NWS Morehead City, NC. They have also upped pops for MHX to 60% for Tuesday night.

[JoshM]

Pretty strong wording in that WSW

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL

CREATE DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE

INCLUDING FIRST RESPONDERS. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES AND

EVEN STRUCTURES IS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD

PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS.

 

Pretty much standard wording, I love it, used to scare the heck out of me when I was a kid

[kanc2001]

watching from the west coast (horrible drought out here, we are calling in Juneuary) anyway would be great for back home (MYR) to get something similar to a '89 redux. good luck to all in the coastal carolinas

[Jon]

i have been trying to figure that out as well.  at one point looked like a trough in the area.  it looks odd to have it here and nothing around us.  other thought is maybe a "reveverse upslople" (yeah i made that up lol) where the higher elevation here is able to wring out some moisture.  sometimes a leeside trough develops but i dont think its usually in this set up

On two of the members, the baja speeds up and goes way east, phasing late with the northern stream bringing higher totals inland. It's essentially seeing "best case" and what we want to happen with the southern energy.

 

 

KRDU Total PRECIP in inches:

[JoshM]

Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about (and I usually don't) but doesn't it seem that the cold tends to moderate a tad on the models, for instance yesterday the NAM had KAKH a of 28 yesterday (18z run), now todays run has us in the mid to upper 30s. Wouldn't over estimating the cold be a big factor in the suppression of our precip? And the cold arriving seems to keep slowing down.

[Crimsonstorm]

Of course this is the first year I move from Macon to Atlanta. I hope I don't get burned over here like I used to in Macon, haha. How is the model trending for the Atlanta area?

[bingcrosbyb]

9z SREF >0.25" precip probabilities. Slowly increasing. 

 

[crossthread]

looking at our Local NWS(afd) Forcast, this is what they are looking at, (I'm assuming disco over the overnight Model run(s)..

 

A-LA almost a EXACT 1989 event...

 

Synopsis...
weak high pressure to our south will allow a brief warm up today
and Monday. An Arctic front will arrive late Monday...stalling
offshore Tuesday night. Low pressure may develop along the front
bringing a chance for wintry precipitation...especially at the
coast. Warmer temperatures are expected late next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 930 am Sunday...seasonable and quiet weather anticipated today
as broad ridge of high pressure expands northward from the Gulf
Coast...with the ridge axis becoming aligned just offshore. This
creates increasing SW flow...which combined with subtle flattening
of the upper ridge...will permit temperatures to rise to near seasonable
levels today. Highs will range from around 50 in the far northwest...to the
middle 50s across the Pee Dee region of SC. The only notable weather
today will be increasing high-level cirrus as moisture streams
northward well overhead...but this will have limited impact to
temperatures today.

As high pressure drifts further offshore tonight...pressure gradient
will slowly tighten as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
This will keep SW winds continuing through the night...which
combined with increasing high level cloudiness...will limit overall
cooling...so mins will fall only into the middle 30s to around
40...actually above normal for this time of year.



&&

Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
as of 300 am Saturday...forecast is looking more interesting in
terms of possibility of wintry pcp for Tuesday. Although moisture
seems to be lacking initially...models now supporting a potential
decent winter storm for the southeast through middle week.

A broad middle to upper trough digging down from Canada will push a
cold front through late Monday. A perturbation in the middle to upper
levels will ride around this broad trough through the southeast
ahead of the front. This will produce a good deal of clouds to start
the day on Monday and will help to produce a warm overnight temperature
leading into Monday. The warm start to the day combined with warm
air streaming north ahead of the front will bring temperatures into the 60s
most places across the forecast area Monday afternoon. The cool waters will
keep coastal locales cooler but the strong southwest winds through
the afternoon will keep the cooler temperatures confined very close to the
coast. The low levels will remain fairly dry with decent downslope
component to the flow developing as winds veer around to the west as
front approaches Monday afternoon. Therefore counting on middle to high clouds
but no pcp with frontal passage late Monday.

The Arctic air behind this front will set the stage for what could
turn out to be a winter storm for the southeast. Latest GFS model
has come more in line to support this wintry weather scenario.
Arctic air advecting in behind front will bring 850 temperatures quickly
down from around 7c Monday to 0c by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will fall
rapidly in cold air advection down below freezing on Tuesday and will feel even
cooler in blustery northerly winds. Shallow cold air will settle
over the region as broad middle to upper trough continues to produce
west-SW flow aloft. This SW flow aloft will ride over the cool
northerly flow at the surface to produce decent isentropic lift
through late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Should keep a solid deck of
lower clouds through Tuesday which combined with shallow cold air advection will
keep temperatures from rising much past freezing in a good portion of the
forecast area. A decent shortwave riding around the broad trough
reaching down into Mexico will carry a shortwave northeast from
the Gulf Coast through Georgia/Florida out into the Atlantic Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Associated surface low will track up through the Atlantic
waters in an ideal track for production of wintry weather for the
coastal Carolinas. Looks like decent jet will combine with
dynamics aloft to set the stage for decent winter weather event.

The warmer southwest flow aloft will produce a warm nose evident
in sounding data but temperatures below the warm nose drop below -10c
with plenty of shallow cold air in place. Coastal soundings also
remain saturated from 1700 feet up through a deep layer of the
atmosphere and unlike past systems which produced only a flake or
two...there is plenty of moisture through the -10 to -20c
layer...in the dendritic growth zone for ice to develop. The warm
nose runs about 2c Tuesday morning but drops below 0c through the
column by noon on Tuesday with a saturated column. Latest GFS shows
axis of greatest moisture lined up from SW to NE from Georgia/Florida coast
NE into Atlantic...but pcp water values reach up above .8 inches
Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Warm nose appears on and off
through the event in coastal soundings before trough digs down and
pushes axis of greatest moisture just off shore. BUFKIT and
soundings show potential for sleet to start but then entire
sounding makes it below freezing by noon and could see snow for
several hours. May see warm nose pop up again later in afternoon and
overall expect a sleet/snow event. We could potentially see snow
falling from Tuesday around noon into Wednesday along the coast. Greatest chance
inland will come later on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Will have to fine
tune quantitative precipitation forecast/snow amounts as time draws nearer and need to wait to see
if models continue to latch onto this winter weather scenario.
Overall looks like coastal areas will see sleet mixing with snow and
inland areas should be drier through the column with lesser chance of
pcp but they have greater chance of seeing all snow when it falls. Maximum
temperatures on Tuesday will come early on but as cold air advection gets underway temperatures
will drop below freezing most places through the day and will feel
even colder in brisk northerly winds.

Then Temps *warm* into the 60's by the weekend?

 

MIXED BAG.....???
 

[WeatherNC]

Afternoon disco out of RAH, watches could go up as early as tomorrow morning for a portion of the CWA.

 

 

 

...BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE MIDWEEK WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FROM THE
TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST...

FOR TUE: THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE MORNING... WHILE SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY... STRETCHING FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. NNE WINDS AND
STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC
DOWN BELOW 1260 M... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST WED... SUGGESTIVE
OF FRIGID HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM NE CANADA
DOWN TO TX AND A FAST FLOW FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... THUS
EXPECT PLENTY OF THICK CLOUD COVER WITH THE LACK OF INSOLATION
ELEVATING THE RISK OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS LASTING ALL THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CONTINUED VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THE DAY. HIGHS 27-32.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT: HERE`S WHERE THE FAST SOUTHERN
STREAM REALLY GIVES US HEADACHES IN TERMS OF A WINTRY PRECIP THREAT.
THE BROAD TROUGHING FROM NE CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS RETAINS
AMPLITUDE AT FIRST BUT DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH AS IT HEADS EAST...
EVENTUALLY DAMPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS AS IT BECOMES MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM NRN MEXICO AND
SRN TX TO THE NE. MEANWHILE... A BAGGY SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE
SE/CAROLINA COAST WILL FORM AND RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SITUATED JUST TO OUR SE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING
CLOUD BASES LATE TUE WITH INCREASING DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH`S WEAKENING NATURE WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS OVER NC... HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING
UPPER JET CORE TO OUR NORTH AND NE AND RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ALONG WITH INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE WILL ALLOW A WINTRY
PRECIP SHIELD TO OVERSPREAD SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF NC FROM THE SW.
THIS WOULD LIKELY START VERY LATE AFTERNOON TUE (BASED ON THE LATEST
CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND FACTORING IN A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER-THAN-MODELS ARRIVAL WHICH EXPERIENCE SHOWS TO BE
THE CASE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT)... CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND
MUCH OF WED. THE FOCUS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WOULD BE FROM THE
TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST... FROM TUE EVENING THROUGH WED
MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS... IT`S THAT THERE
IS FAIRLY HIGH CERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE... AS PARTIAL
THICKNESS FORECASTS STRONGLY SUPPORT AN ALL-SNOW PTYPE FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NC... EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD... SHOWING THE BACK EDGE ORIENTED NE-TO-SW ACROSS THE
TRIANGLE... THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
AMOUNTS... AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE SREF PLUMES WHICH SHOW A HUGE
RANGE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AMONG THE MODELS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...
RANGING FROM ALMOST NOTHING TO SEVERAL INCHES OR EVEN MORE DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL. THUS... IT IS UNWISE TO LATCH ONTO ANY ONE MODEL
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OR WEAKER UPPER JET
CORE WILL GREATLY ALTER THE RESULTING AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND
STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE DEGREE OF LIFT... WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED OR
WEAKER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL FOSTER GREATER OR LESS SNOW BANDING.
BUT WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SEVERAL-HOUR
PERIOD OF SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND
EAST... WILL RAISE POPS IN THIS AREA TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY...
BEST CHANCE IN THE FAYETTEVILLE-CLINTON-GOLDSBORO CORRIDOR TO THE
SE. AGAIN... AMOUNTS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS RANGE
GIVEN THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD IN QPF AND THE FACT THAT THE CRUCIAL
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM HASN`T EVEN FORMED YET. BUT ODDS ARE
INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR THE SE HALF OF
NC. WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TOMORROW (MON) MORNING... SO
CHECK THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS OFTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N AND NW BY MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON WED... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRYING ALOFT AS NOTED
BY THE GFS... SO EXPECT A FAIRLY ABRUPT END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF POSSIBLE LATE-DAY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LOWS 12-20 TUE NIGHT... HIGHS 28-33 WED... AND LOWS 11-18
WED NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. -GIH

[cng885]

Think we will see a north trend in the models as we get closer with this event? That has been the theme for most of the mid atlantic and east coast events thus far,

[dsaur]

If you are on the northern fringes of that precip field (south of here), you have to imagine the ratios will certainly be better than 10:1. If virga doesn't kill most of the QPF, there will really be a nice zone of light, fluffy snow that will add up faster.

 Hope so!  MeteoStar is only providing me with .07.  Not much, so it will have to go a long way   These types of storms are just killer.  It is so easy to be watching someone close by get the storm of their lives, while you get nothing.  I stilll suffer all the time over 73, and this just brings it back in my face, lol.  I am trying to rest easy in the idea the weather couldn't ball kick me again...I'm an old man..and I've been good, lol.  I deserve what Macon got, not another slap down!

  I'm putting my eggs in Goofy's basket.  I've watched intently all week, and the gfs has slowly trended in my direction better and better.  I think 0z tonight will tell the tale.  T

[buckeyefan1]

 Hope so!  MeteoStar is only providing me with .07.  Not much, so it will have to go a long way   These types of storms are just killer.  It is so easy to be watching someone close by get the storm of their lives, while you get nothing.  I stilll suffer all the time over 73, and this just brings it back in my face, lol.  I am trying to rest easy in the idea the weather couldn't ball kick me again...I'm an old man..and I've been good, lol.  I deserve what Macon got, not another slap down!

  I'm putting my eggs in Goofy's basket.  I've watched intently all week, and the gfs has slowly trended in my direction better and better.  I think 0z tonight will tell the tale.  T

The 12z gfs gives mby   6.7"  of snow  

[nchighcountrywx]

From Bernie Rano...Accuweather's thoughts.

6 inches from Columbia SC to Fayetteville NC

RDU possible several inches

No mention in the video for any impacts to Charlotte or Greensboro line

Bernie was confident this will be an ENE slider and will not come up the coast to the mid Atlantic. The reason is the 500mb kicker will be moving due east and not digging southward.