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Snow/non-Clipper/High wind/Windex Event Disco Jan. 25th


Damage In Tolland

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Saturday looks to be shaping up into quite an interesting day wx wise. Strong WAA up over the cold arctic dome always leads to some fun.

 

NAM goes nuts with damaging winds out on the Cape.

 

Seems like a 1-3 inch type deal inland..while it may mix with rain along the coast.

 

Then strong fropa and windex parameters off the charts

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Good snow growth but I don't see any instability of note here in CT on either the GFS or NAM. No TT spike.

 

Doesn't look like a WINDEX event either down here thought it could be different elsewhere.

Yeah TTs are in the mid 30s to around 40 out this way from what I see.  Like to get that up to 50+. 

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Good snow growth but I don't see any instability of note here in CT on either the GFS or NAM. No TT spike.

 

Doesn't look like a WINDEX event either down here thought it could be different elsewhere.

 

 

We need some more low level moisture (like 900mb level). If we get that, then we could see instability rise since lapse rates are decent below about 800-850mb (I'd also like to see that level rise a bit too)

 

Seems like this is largely WAA driven. Maybe it will trend better as we get closer. At least the WAA is strong...but the moisture is putrid.

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We need some more low level moisture (like 900mb level). If we get that, then we could see instability rise since lapse rates are decent below about 800-850mb (I'd also like to see that level rise a bit too)

 

Seems like this is largely WAA driven. Maybe it will trend better as we get closer. At least the WAA is strong...but the moisture is putrid.

What would you say it is as of now..1-2 of fluff  for most with maybe a spot 3?

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I think clippers are always very good for us. Hopefully it swings to the south waters and goes boom.

 

Wonder if this is a more NNE deal? 12z GFS ens suggest a track better up there?

This thread is for Saturday...not Monday. Saturday is WAA/instability out ahead of a cold front. This is normally a warm setup, but with such cold air in place we can pull off snow despite low level SW flow.
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Any chance of sw flow OE enhancement on Saturday? I know this is pretty rare, but I'm sure occurrences of this are documented on some dead sea scrolls. Is this setup similar to any past events?

It looks like there could be some stuff moving off in the LLJ coming from the south, but the boundary layer will turn mild with temps in the U30s for you.

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4" is one helluva squall.

1-2 from the WAA for everyone and then whoever gets under a quick hitting squall could get another inch or so

 

FIRST SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE AN INTENSE CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING

THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING TOWARDS THE NE. DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND

GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM W TO E SAT MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FEATURE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO

HEAVY SNOW BANDING WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING

AND EVEN SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD

TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW

SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS IN LATE AFT/EVE AS STRONG

SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ARCTIC FRONT PASS THROUGH.

THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE

GENERALLY LIGHT...COASTING TO 2 INCHES...BUT 445LOCALLY UP TO 2-4

INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING OR SNOW SQUALLS...AND

PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTERIOR 

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