packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The QPF field is skewed IMO with regards to the CMC... How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Correction....0z GEFS mean looks much better, has 0.25-0.5" precip making it west of RDU almost to CLT, 0.10" line back to at least Wilkesboro. Other cities.. 0.25-0.5" to CAE and ATL and points SE 0.5"+ on the coast A lot different than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 A road trip to the eastern Carolina's may be in order next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 interesting tweet from brad p: Brad Panovich @wxbrad3m Last 7 day average model verification scores. CMC: 0.896 ECMWF: 0.902 GFS: 0.877 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 A road trip to the eastern Carolina's may be in order next week. It has the best barbecue that I don't cook you'll ever put in your mouth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Interesting Greg Fishel on the 11 o'clock news just said that the latest American model run the GFS shows no way for snow mid week but he also said on a side note that he trusts the American model about as far as you can throw it lol During the 6 o'clock segment Greg Fishel drew comparisons to the Dec 89 storm that wallopped the coastal plain. Models forecasted the cold being so strong it pushed the moisture straight out into the Atlantic, but the warm Gulf Stream proved the models wrong and spit moisture back inland. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19891223/19891223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Get the feeling a few of us are staying up for the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 interesting tweet from brad p: Brad Panovich @wxbrad3m Last 7 day average model verification scores. CMC: 0.896 ECMWF: 0.902 GFS: 0.877 Wow, I'm shocked at the CMC score. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 How so? I agree with weatherNC after looking at the CMC. The low should be deeper and be more NW than modeled The loop current should deepen the core. The low is in the right entrance region of the jet streak that should deepen the core also. And the low should move more northward along the area of greatest PVA. This storm could well over-preform! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I agree with weatherNC after looking at the CMC. The low should be deeper and be more NW than modeled The loop current should deepen the core. The low is in the right entrance region of the jet streak that should deepen the core also. And the low should move more northward along the area of greatest PVA. This storm could well over-preform! Thanks! I was just catching up reading the exchange between you 2 on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wish I had more experience with ratios since this would be a very cold storm. I'd be happy with 20:1 though. But still. Many of you have seen over a foot of snow before. I never have so It would be a bit disappointing and frustrating seeing a foot and half plus that far south. I mean if the canadian was right, you are talking about the difference between a really good snow and an epic snow that will be remembered a hundred years from now. It would sure beat nothing though that's for sure. All the images tonight are showing an incredible storm for sure. 73 storm was before my time but I remember the 89 storm. I am all for our coastal friends seeing a good snow but I would hate to get skipped as we did in those two. If these maps verify, even closely, I (and many of us inland peeps) am going to have a very difficult time dealing with the reality of it. What appears to be keeping the storm track so suppressed; the cold dome, the jet stream, something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is getting really REALLY close to a possible 73 solution in SC. This looks too good. Wish the GFS would get on board. I know, man, and if it does something like that a lot of hearts will break Macon gets 16 or more, and Atl got partly sunny. One of my most painful weather misses. So much snow, like we'd never seen up here. It was such a narrow swath though. I'd like to see a loop of that event. I remember is was cold like this, and we were still recovering from the ice storm. And like this... something was moving across the gulf most days. We were watching just like this for something to come out, and what a duzy, but such a knife turned in your heart, lol. It was only for the special folks...the worthy, lol. I think Goofy is getting there, from watching intently. I want to see what it does with the first bit it's been playing with Sun/Mon. The small fry interest me about what may be coming as the Gfs sees it. Last night surely out performed what it's runs were showing, but seems to me to be what Goofy does. It's tell. If something is stiring it will push it way down, but bring it up in the end. And give you hints along the way. Like stacking tiny waves, and letting them out slow as slightly bigger unit It's been like a pack rat for days, puffing out bits of under running. These setups kill you because there is the moisture, and finally you've got the cold, but, dang it, they are a state apart T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, I'm shocked at the CMC score. Thanks for posting. Im shocked at the GFS. I would have thought that thing would be 0.300 or something. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, I'm shocked at the CMC score. Thanks for posting. The pattern has definitely switched to one that favors the CMC or Euro vs. the GFS...we did not see an overly cold or suppressed pattern during the wave of storms in December into very early January but we now are seeing that, I still believe the Euro tends to do best when the NAO is strongly negative or we have significant blocking somewhere in the NATL which we do not currently have but no doubt the pattern now would likely lead to it doing better than it did in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 00z Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 00z Canadian... That snow hole over ATL; does anyone know what's causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That snow hole over ATL; does anyone know what's causing that? I was about to say this. WTF is that? Really? Ughhh....that just hurts my heart. Hopefully that's just something trivial...would be terrible if that came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I was about to say this. WTF is that? Really? Ughhh....that just hurts my heart. Hopefully that's just something trivial...would be terrible if that came to fruition. Much to early for dry slot type words etc. It's just quite odd looking. I would guess a model glitch; but these smarter guys here may be able to see something that's causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The pattern has definitely switched to one that favors the CMC or Euro vs. the GFS...we did not see an overly cold or suppressed pattern during the wave of storms in December into very early January but we now are seeing that, I still believe the Euro tends to do best when the NAO is strongly negative or we have significant blocking somewhere in the NATL which we do not currently have but no doubt the pattern now would likely lead to it doing better than it did in December Thanks again for the info SnowGoose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like that energy in the SW could be passed by the Northern stream so far per 00z Euro. EDIT: or it could cut off and just look like the GFS. time will tell here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Euro is looking pretty awful for much snow for anyone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Can the GFS really be right? If so; I'm done speaking badly of it this year. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm already colder tonight that I got last night. Those clouds kept me in the upper teens for a good while, but I made 13.7. This is some serious cold air this year. If we can't make hay with this, it'll hurt, but not like getting just missed by a big one, lol. I got that dry slot in the Xmas storm, and the later storm, both, so I know that hole. I'm glad it's move north..sorry but you had your fun on 2010 while we just ground our teeth away down south of you Looks like the frozen down south never made it to MetalMan, but it was close. Such is this pattern. Folks down south of us really need to make hay with this cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No good...Wide right for everybody. Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Can the GFS really be right? If so; I'm done speaking badly of it this year. Not looking good. Only time will tell. I wouldn't base it off one run of the Euro though; after all, is it really realistic for the model to maintain a significant snowstorm in every single one of its runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You have to be kidding me? The Canadien looks great, the GFS ensembles look great, the past Euro ensembles look great, and now this with the Euro. I don't think anyone knows what will happen. But it figures the one model that looked screwy compared to the rest, the GFS, could end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Only time will tell. I wouldn't base it off one run of the Euro though; after all, is it really realistic for the model to maintain a significant snowstorm in every single one of its runs? It sucked for interior areas since 00z last night imo. The EPS is going to be quite ugly for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like the 00z Euro scrapes Cape Hatteras and perhaps Ocracoke Island with a little snow. Otherwise, 'tis an unmitigated disaster. Why did I have to look at this before bed? On to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Snow maps show a Northern Atlantic fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Oscar in me says wait until the system in the sw is fully sampled on Sunday before throwing in the towel. If the GFS does verify which is plausible, it would be unfortunate with this kind of air in place and a bunch folks in the SE will be sick. I'm pretty sure this is the time period that the Doc lost the Boxing Day storm a bit in 2010 after being modeled so well for days so still think it could go either way. This cold air is the real deal. Enjoy the ups and downs this weekend with hopefully stronger sw energy that ejects and links with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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