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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Middle of Winter


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Warmup next week looking increasingly muted. Gone from flat out blow torch and deluges of rain to what almost looks like intermittently milder weather with some light rain for 3-4 days.  About 1" of snow today and tonight around Syracuse.

 

Seriously the models have been ALL over lately. It went from insane Torch with 3-5 days of temps in the uppers 40s-mid 50s to max temperatures hitting 40-42 for a few days. Most models underestimate the warmth and downsloping flow especially in WNY. I am pretty bullish on a decent event snow wise on Monday-Tuesday timeframe. Most models show a very quick hitting WWA event across most of the sub-forum.

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Warmup next week looking increasingly muted. Gone from flat out blow torch and deluges of rain to what almost looks like intermittently milder weather with some light rain for 3-4 days.  About 1" of snow today and tonight around Syracuse.

Good! I want this winter to last it's been awesome haha! Please don't do too much damage to our snow pack :(.

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Definitely encouraging words from BGM:  LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODEL

TRENDS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN 40S THEN U30S SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR A MIX. FAST FLOW ALOFT SO
ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR ANY STORM WILL HAVE MORE THAN HALF AN INCH
LIQUID WITH IT.

 

I'm confident our snowpack will survive a few days in the 40's especially with no heavy rainers.

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I feel like I'm living inside of a snow globe this morning. Since about 8:30 it's been snowing large flakes with hardly any wind. Probably picked up about two and a half inches of fluff that I could clear with my breath. The lake effect band producing this barely shows up on Montague radar. Doppler 9 shows it better - not impressive but centered right over me.

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I feel like I'm living inside of a snow globe this morning. Since about 8:30 it's been snowing large flakes with hardly any wind. Probably picked up about two and a half inches of fluff that I could clear with my breath. The lake effect band producing this barely shows up on Montague radar. Doppler 9 shows it better - not impressive but centered right over me.

same here over in Clay...probably picked up an inch of fluff. If we could only get this kind of flake size in a "real" storm, we'd have something!

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SREF Plumes at around 5 inches for this next event for KBUF. Hopefully we can get that and go over 100 inches on the year before the torch.

Nice! i haven't checked the models lately so it looks like that warmup might be brief after all, i wouldn't mind for this to continue till April haha!

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SREF Plumes at around 5 inches for this next event for KBUF. Hopefully we can get that and go over 100 inches on the year before the torch.

 

 

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL QUICKLY LIFT FROM THE

CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS

WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE WILL

BE ACCOMPANIED BY BOTH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH THE LATTER

ARISING FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE

NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC

VORTICITY ADVECTION AND CORRESPONDING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND GOOD

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONT FLANK OF THE MID AND UPPER

LEVEL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD

TEMPS...THIS WILL ADD UP TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF A PERIOD OF SNOW

THAT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN MID MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND

THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...THEN

END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY.

A 12Z MODEL QPF/WPC CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A ROUGH TWO TENTHS TO A THIRD

OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE

INTO A ROUGH 2-4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN MOST PLACES...WITH SOME

LOWER-END ADVISORY-TYPE AMOUNTS NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN

THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...

ESPECIALLY IF IT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY

FORECAST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN THE

EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND SOME

LINGERING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGHEST

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE...BUT WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED IF ONE

IS EVENTUALLY NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF OUR

FORECAST AREA.

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Check out the 12Z Euro at 168 hrs...still in sort of dumb-f*cker range but it has a nice slp about over NYC and a solid 700 mb def band over CNY/WNY.   GFS not as far west or developed (no surprise there).  Something to monitor.  

 

Yeah it has been on the Euro for the last few runs. But it's still really far out. Picked up close to 2 inches of Fluff the last couple days. Snow depth is between 8-9 inches.

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well 00Z Euro seems to lose the storm, or shove it way east. CMC has it going west or right over NY State...this is still out at 168 hrs or so. But its the next decent shot at a snowstorm, other than tonight/Tuesday minor system.  snowed all day yday but only about 1.5" to show for it here. Total snow depth still hanging in at 24" or so.  That'll take a hit later this week.

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Anyone remember this gem?

http://blog.syracuse.com/indepth/2007/12/snow010594.pdf

Jan 94 - still to this day probably the most intense snow I've ever been in. I was out cross country skiing for 2 hours and over 9" of snow fell. It was amazing, wish I had taken pics...

I remember that storm well. I was living in the Mohawk Valley which didn't get hit as bad as the Syracuse area. It was a coastal storm that went negative tilt. A band of extremely intense snow propagated to the northwest off the ocean and hit Syracuse around noon. What ensued was similar to what happened in Atlanta this year. Employers let their people go home and schools were dismissed at the height of the storm. A foot of snow fell in 2 hours which made roads impassable and traffic came to a halt on all major roads. The only other event that I witnessed that compared to this storm was a lake effect storm in February 2004 that dropped almost 2 feet in 4 hours.

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