Srain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The overnight Euro and GFS are insistent in developing a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche later this week. Typically the tail end of a frontal boundary in the Southern Gulf in October is a place to monitor for any tropical development. The reliable guidance suggests the monsoonal trough will fester near the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Pressure falls are expected in the .Bay of Campeche and a slow drift of a surface low is possible into next week as the area of disturbed weather become better organized and it is possible.that a tropical storm could form early next week. The various Coastal Texas NWS offices are mentioning increasing Easterly winds and higher tides in response to this potential developing TC. Interests from the NE Gulf Coast and the W Coast of Florida may want to monitor developments this weekend in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The overnight Euro and GFS are insistent in developing a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche later this week. Typically the tail end of a frontal boundary in the Southern Gulf in October is a place to monitor for any tropical development. The reliable guidance suggests the monsoonal trough will fester near the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Pressure falls are expected in the .Bay of Campeche and a slow drift of a surface low is possible into next week as the area of disturbed weather become better organized and it is possible.that a tropical storm could form early next week. The various Coastal Texas NWS offices are mentioning increasing Easterly winds and higher tides in response to this potential developing TC. Interests from the NE Gulf Coast and the W Coast of Florida may want to monitor developments this weekend in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. While model guidance is hinting at possible development down in the Bay of Campeche...upper level winds will be howling from the west across the northern half of the Gulf on the order of 70+ kts. Looks like a trough will dive down the East Coast sending a frontal boundary down into the Gulf, which increases the shear dramatically. If it even tries to head north or east, it'll get torn to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The whole Atlantic basin is very hostile. Shear is running above normal in all zones, except along the East Coast. That will change as soon as troughing returns to the East Coast next week. I don't see much as far as significant development...perhaps we get one more weak system? This forecast worked out well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 This forecast worked out well for you. Hey, even the best are wrong a few times. But in all seriousness, I think Gonzalo threw a lot of forecasts off. He threaded the needle in the Atlantic. Found the one conducive area in an otherwise hostile basin and took advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Almost all models, reliable or not, have cyclogenesis east of Tampico. The steering pattern in the SW GoM pretty much collapses, which adds uncertainty to a forecast past day 5...just as an example, the 06z GFS has the cyclone still meandering in the BoC at hour 384. What happens is that there's a persistent and strong Alaska low forecasted for days to come...that would pump the heights over the central part of the CONUS and central Canada, so at a time that experiences troughs every week or so at this time of the year, like the S and SE, only shortwave energy will go under the ridging, in a split pattern...and it happens that the shortwaves are forecasted to be rather weak, hence bypassing the cyclone near the BoC. Also, this shortwaves preclude the rising of heights as well, so a ridge can't get established to steer the cyclone to the west. Currently I favor cyclogenesis in the SW GoM, as there's overwhelming support from the models, but I'd be wary of any track forecast past day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Almost all models, reliable or not, have cyclogenesis east of Tampico. The steering pattern in the SW GoM pretty much collapses, which adds uncertainty to a forecast past day 5...just as an example, the 06z GFS has the cyclone still meandering in the BoC at hour 384. What happens is that there's a persistent and strong Alaska low forecasted for days to come...that would pump the heights over the central part of the CONUS and central Canada, so at a time that experiences troughs every week or so at this time of the year, like the S and SE, only shortwave energy will go under the ridging, in a split pattern...and it happens that the shortwaves are forecasted to be rather weak, hence bypassing the cyclone near the BoC. Also, this shortwaves preclude the rising of heights as well, so a ridge can't get established to steer the cyclone to the west. Currently I favor cyclogenesis in the SW GoM, as there's overwhelming support from the models, but I'd be wary of any track forecast past day 4. Very complex and overall messy synoptic pattern after about day 7...especially on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro says no to a storm in the Bay of Campeche. All it shows is perhaps a weak swirl down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like CPC/NHC's outlooks have panned out pretty well so far. May: 12, 5, 2 Aug: 10, 5, 1 2014: 8, 6, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The late season increase in instability associated with the SST rise helped boost the ACE out of the basement. It's interesting that it took one of the greatest AMO increases that we have seen from June to September. 2014 -0.041 -0.022 -0.060 -0.073 0.019 0.083 0.242 0.356 0.331 http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Impressive features of the tropical cyclone season: 1) Landfalling tropical cyclone on the Big Island of Hawaii approaching from the east. 2) Two landfalling tropical cyclones within one week on the island of Bermuda. 3) Landfalling major hurricane over Cabo San Lucas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Euro is still liking something subtropical/extratropical in the Gulf next weekend into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Many of the global models are showing development in the GOM or northwestern Caribbean next week. With a ridge driving down into the eastern CONUS, whatever does develop will be a slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Many of the global models are showing development in the GOM or northwestern Caribbean next week. With a ridge driving down into the eastern CONUS, whatever does develop will be a slow mover. now mandarinized by NHC in the 5 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 The 00Z Ensembles are fairly good agreement of developing a sub/extratropical low in the Bay of Campeche the week. The remnants at the mid/upper levels associated with EPAC former TS Trudy as well as an approaching 5H low in Arizona/Northern Mexico should allow for lowering pressures across the BoC and Southern Gulf where a stalled frontal boundary is draped. High wind sheer across the Northern Gulf should keep any real development in check, but provide S Florida and the Keys with some heavy rainfall into next weekend. Bad timing for the beginning of Fantasy Fest in Key West next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Euro is still very aggressive in showing something subtropical. With building heights across the north central U.S. and a trough getting stuck underneath it, it should catch your eye. Moisture will be getting drawn up into the Bay of Campeche area over the next several days and lowering pressures occurring with a trough of low pressure moving into the Western Gulf. The Euro interacts it with a ULL in the Central Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I'm stunned that Gonzalo is still tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 The 00Z Ensembles are fairly good agreement of developing a sub/extratropical low in the Bay of Campeche the week. The remnants at the mid/upper levels associated with EPAC former TS Trudy as well as an approaching 5H low in Arizona/Northern Mexico should allow for lowering pressures across the BoC and Southern Gulf where a stalled frontal boundary is draped. High wind sheer across the Northern Gulf should keep any real development in check, but provide S Florida and the Keys with some heavy rainfall into next weekend. Bad timing for the beginning of Fantasy Fest in Key West next weekend. Was there for it last year - what a great time, and we were fortunate enough to have great weather too. Seems like just as often as not though, some sort of slopgyre or something is brewing in late Oct close enough to the Keys to, at the very least, throw some gusty showers their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 lol 12z GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 lol 12z GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html The 0zEuro showed something similar with an energy split and leaves a piece in the Caribbean and ejects part of it out to sea, one of the more interesting setups in recent years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 All of the 12Z models now ramp up 93L pretty significantly. I believe GFS is alone in showing a split system, but all models have the main energy moving to the Caribbean and then tracking towards FL. This should be an interesting one to watch. Edit: 12Z CMC also shows a second low developing off of the east coast front but preserves 93L as the main feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It also should be noted that the MJO is in a significant amplitude RMM phase 1, which tends to be a favorable phase for Central American gyre (CAG) development. Combine that with antecedent vorticity provided by TC Trudy and a favorable climatological state (CAGs are more favorable in Sep-Nov), and Its not surprising to see the models latch on to a gyre solution. Note that even as the vorticity maxima organizes over the Bay of Campeche, there is plenty of background cyclonic vorticity stretching across Mexico into the EPAC. Extensive anomalous westerly flow in the EPAC is a synoptic characteristic of these CAG events. The big question is whether or not it can become something more. My research focal points looks at these features, and a decent chunk of them go on to become tropical cyclones (~33 percent). However, that percentage goes down quite significantly when an upper tropospheric trough is involved, which ramps up the vertical wind shear over the low-level circulation. If the upper-level trough forecasted to impact the gyre-like circulation can stay poleward, this system probably has a better chance to organize further as a tropical cyclone. Some good examples of CAGs that went on to become significant tropical cyclones during this time of year.... Opal (1995), Roxanne (1995), Michelle (2001), Wilma (2005) just to name a few. It may be a slopgyre for now, but slopgyres can develop into pretty robust TCs if given the right environment and enough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The Atlantic is in a favorable intraseasonal state thanks to a western hemispheric MJO passage. ECMWF ensembles are now highlighting a strong suppressed Kelvin wave passage during the late 7-14 day period. These next two weeks could be the final hoorah of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season in light of another upcoming intraseasonal shift in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 lol 12z GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102012/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html Take it to the bank! lol ...Hey at least its before truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 2p TWO: 50% in 48hrs , 60% in 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Plan of the Day 000NOUS42 KNHC 201411REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1015 AM EDT MON 20 OCTOBER 2014SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2014 TCPOD NUMBER.....14-142I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73 A. 21/1730Z A. 22/1130Z, 1730Z B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE C. 21/1445Z C. 22/0830Z D. 19.7N 94.0W D. 19.9N 92.0W E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2130Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Why has all the satellite imagery stopped updating since 22z today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Why has all the satellite imagery stopped updating since 22z today?Yeah I noticed this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yeah I noticed this also. Still not updating on NOAA and some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Recon has found a broad closed low deep in the BoC with winds near/at TS strength and a minimum central pressure around 1005mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Still not updating on NOAA and some others. http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/text/?t=admin&f=KWNO_20141021133704_ADMNFD.txt 909 NOUS42 KWNO 211337 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1325Z TUE OCT 21 2014 NESDIS IS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH PRODUCTS NOT UPDATING ON THEIR WEBSITES...THEY ARE AWARE OF AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE.. 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME.. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 78866/SXM - 10142 78486/SDQ - PURGED WINDS 213MB AND UP FOR GFS...PORTIONS TOO STRONG CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.