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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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Good profiles from 700 mb to the surface across much of eastern NC. Shows 500-surface temps blow freezing into the SC midlands. Precip looks light, beginning over SC midlands into the Sandhills, along the US 1 corridor, then increasing to the east.

 

As they say, don't pillage the bread and milk aisles, but if things go right, we'd break our snow drought here.

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Rev Dodd, I hope it makes it to reality, I'm tired of the near misses. We could use a nice 1 to 2 inch dusting all over NC. I'll take it where I can get it!!!

It's been frustrating to have the cold, but not the moisture. I don't like having to put faith in a clipper like this, either. But heck, it gives us something to watch. 12Z GFS has the moisture a bit further north through 48 hours, BTW. 

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There have been several NENC and SE VA 4-5 day threats this season. Only for models to fizzle them out day or two before. Not that I'm hugging each run but nam and gfs now have the good stuff develop off shore. Still flurries and snow showers around but not the 1-2" we were seeing

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There have been several NENC and SE VA 4-5 day threats this season. Only for models to fizzle them out day or two before. Not that I'm hugging each run but nam and gfs now have the good stuff develop off shore. Still flurries and snow showers around but not the 1-2" we were seeing

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KORF&model=nam&time=2014011818&field=prec

Looks ok?

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There have been several NENC and SE VA 4-5 day threats this season. Only for models to fizzle them out day or two before. Not that I'm hugging each run but nam and gfs now have the good stuff develop off shore. Still flurries and snow showers around but not the 1-2" we were seeing

 

Partially agree, if anything over the past 10 days, there has been a propensity for the slp to form farther SSW than what guidance has showed in the day 4-5 period.  12z globals & ens are not looking so hot for a 1-2" event, one likes to be splitting tenths at this range rather than hundredths, or zero.   I do like the moisture return sig showing up of the VA Capes, which could implicate SE VA / NE NC, 12z NAM took meaningful amounts into the Coastal Plain.  36-54 hrs till the parcels in question get sampled over CONUS, still enough time for waffling, one way or another.

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To vbsurf: Looks good for Norfolk. My previous comment was more region wide. QPF has come down since last nights runs but still bulls eyes Norfolk, Suffolk, Chesapeake and the beach. 18z clown map shows 1" for them. Last nights 0z gfs run showed a nice 1-2" event for all of SEVA and NENC and the Nam (6z?)showed a nice strip of 1-2" going through Elizabeth city to Hampton roads. Not trying to be negative here. Just looking at the runs. Really hoping for something this time.

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KILM, always conservative...

 

Monday through Tuesday night/...
as of 3 am Sunday...while the short term will be characterized by
continued middle-level troughing across the east...subtle thickness
increase in response to flattening trough will help Monday temperatures
rise to above normal...around 60 most locations. This will be
accompanied by weak ridging from the Gulf Coast...and steady SW
winds as the pressure gradient remains pinched. A strong vorticity
maximum will approach Monday night...with a surface cold front
driven beneath it. This will keep winds elevated Monday night...and
thus mins will remain around climatology Monday night...middle 30s across the
area...but around 40 at the beaches.

 

Aforementioned vorticity serves to reinforce what is becoming an
ever-present 500 mb trough across the east...driving the cold front
through the area with cold air advection beginning late Tuesday. This front will
stall for a bit on Tuesday
...as middle-level flow becomes boundary
parallel...before it is forced southeast by the impulse aloft Tuesday
night. Thus...maximum temperatures Tuesday...while cooler than Monday...will
still rise into the 50s...with some upper 40s likely in the far northwest.

The forecast becomes most interesting Tuesday night as the vorticity
drives some lift into an airmass which is quickly cooling. This
creates possible p-type issues Tuesday night...but once
again...moisture is limited in the profile.
 Forecast soundings are
very marginal with respect to p-type (and quantitative precipitation forecast in general)...as even
the most aggressive NAM soundings show saturation only to about
-14c...or the extreme bottom of the dendritic growth zone. Temperatures at
the time of strongest middle-level saturation are several degrees above
32f...but a dry sub-cloud layer drives surface wet-bulb temperatures into
the 20s.
 As we have seen...a strong vorticity {EDIT: as WE along the Coastal Zone seen from Ga up through Topsail Island Late Friday night into Saturday Morning with potent T-Storms, **Pictured below**} can act to squeeze out any
residual column moisture...even the 0.30 inch precipitable water modeled for
Tuesday night...so precipitation could fall as snow during this time.
   Of
course...cold air chasing the moisture is...never...a promising
setup for snowfall here..
.and analysis of upper dynamics actually
reveals some subsidence beneath the lrq of an upper jet which could
offset some of the lift associated with the shortwave trough.
Top-down methodology produces a small region of r-/S- along I-95 in
North Carolina...and this matches well with 1000-850mb partial
thicknesses approaching critical values for snow. However...am
inclined to leave pure liquid.../r-/...in official forecast as some
very light rain or cold drizzle seems the most likely p-type.. .but
cannot rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain Tuesday
night. Little quantitative precipitation forecast is expected...with no snow accumulation.


Regardless...strong cold air advection behind this boundary will drive mins Tuesday
night to well below freezing...low 20s likely inland...and just
below 30 at the coast.

 

post-2767-0-31188900-1390135767_thumb.gi

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Just playing negative nancy, but tomorrow is going to be in the 60s outside the mtns and our Tuesday high is low 50s, the timing on this is Tuesday night? All that moisture before the cold would just be terrible

 

Its a strange setup and not one that we usually see, it takes this type of setup to get statewide snow in NC, and its only happened a few times before, that everywhere in the state has recorded at least 1". Mar 1980 ( obviously this was a different animal all together than what is modeled) and Jan 2003 ( awesome storm for the coast and mts the folks in the middle got shafted but still had 1"+)  are the only two times off the top of my head that we have seen that....the low here Tues night is suppose to be 21 andthe point and click isn't exactly earth shattering but its liable to change if the models keep up with this low tracking along the NC/SC border....

 

Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 11pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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