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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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Oh no, RAH just updated with this...

 

WRT TOMORROWS FORECAST... THE 00Z HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX... WHICH USUALLY MEANS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL NC THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
SUCH A SYSTEM. HOWEVER... WANT TO SEE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ALONG
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THUS... A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzVDDSfeeA

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WRAL is always right, I would go with that one, I think points NE of us in NC will see 1-3".

They have busted both ways in the past. They have a habit now of being very conservative and then upping the totals as the snow falls so they can say they didn't cry wolf. It has been that way ever since Greg had to sit in the fountain after calling for a big snow that didn't happen.

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The central NC folks should like Brad P's in-house 4K model for snowfall totals.

 

And, here's a link to an animated GIF of the action tomorrow from the same model.

Meanwhile, WRAL's in- house only shows a dusting for Raleigh.

While the model showed a dusting, they however painted Wake in a 1-2" area on the projected map.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Oh no, RAH just updated with this...

 

WRT TOMORROWS FORECAST... THE 00Z HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH

WITH THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX... WHICH USUALLY MEANS A BETTER

CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL NC THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH

SUCH A SYSTEM. HOWEVER... WANT TO SEE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ALONG

WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION ON A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THUS... A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzVDDSfeeA

Sounds like a jinx watch is in effect.
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The energy streaming further south is definitely a good sign for those of us in central NC who want to see some of the white stuff. It'll be interesting to see if the global models agree. 


 


I'd keep an eye on the HRRR forecasts tomorrow as the event gets closer and starts to unfold. It's resolved a number of events in the Mid-Atlantic particularly well this season and could give us an early idea of who the "winners" and "losers" might be.


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The energy streaming further south is definitely a good sign for those of us in central NC who want to see some of the white stuff. It'll be interesting to see if the global models agree. 

 

I'd keep an eye on the HRRR forecasts tomorrow as the event gets closer and starts to unfold. It's resolved a number of events in the Mid-Atlantic particularly well this season and could give us an early idea of who the "winners" and "losers" might be.

The model precip fields have not shown this southerly piece to be favorable for us, but much better for the central and southern coastal plain. What do you make of that?
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Looking at radar returns, with 9-12 hours to go before this batch of precip swings through, things look really slow to me. Nothing showing up outside of western ky and western tn. Radar loop shows little progression eastward or southeastward. So if this slows down further than modeled today we should see increased qpf's just north of the lp track, correct? And what is the best model to show that so close to onset?

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PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
449 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
  CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
  NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...COLD AIR RUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CHANGE RAIN
  TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
  EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS COASTAL
  COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AROUND OR NEAR THE EVENING RUSH
  HOUR THROUG THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING
  TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A FLASH FREEZE OF
  WATER OR BLACK ICE MAY ALSO QUICKLY DEVELOP.

* TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE
  LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
  WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING.

 

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I don't have any science to back me up but i would be really surprised to see 50 tomorrow.

 

Well its 30 out there as I go to work and we are suppose to get to 55 for a high lol and they say we are going to change to snow around 4pm that's quite a range and only 10 hrs to pull it off......

 

A chance of rain after 1pm, mixing with snow after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming west 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...

TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  AREA. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.


NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-212100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.140121T2100Z-140122T0500Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
449 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
  CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
  NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...COLD AIR RUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CHANGE RAIN
  TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
  EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS COASTAL
  COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AROUND OR NEAR THE EVENING RUSH
  HOUR THROUG THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING
  TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A FLASH FREEZE OF
  WATER OR BLACK ICE MAY ALSO QUICKLY DEVELOP.

* TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE
  LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
  WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

PWB/CBL
 

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6z nam has trended wetter from 0z... the snow hole filled in.

6z gfs has trend dryer for southern portions... but relatively unchanged in NE sections.

 

Interestingly enough last couple of runs of Rap is pretty wet shows scattered pockets of .3-.4" qpf mainly central,northern and western  sections. One run even had a pocket of .5". The rest of NC east of RDU has yet to be determined. Simulated radars look good over the next 18 hours or so from the Rap. Appears too keeps the vortmax along the southern sections around the NC/SC line.

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27 @ the house and 33 up here in town this a.m. Actually had frost lon the car and ground. Clouds starting to roll in. Would love to see an inch of snow but not expecting it. Can't wait for late weekend/early next week . I still like the prospects of the 1st true synoptic snow for the SE in a  long time. Good luck to everyone today.

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