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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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We may need an Alaskan chase.

 

Anchorage is the new Seattle.  Fairbanks is the new Reno.

 

Okay, back on topic.........

 

62/21, mostly clear skies.  It was a good day for a bike ride.  RAH mentions that Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for the northern Piedmont and coastal plain eventually, they they are holding off on issuing one for now.

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Ready for spring. Cold without snow is pointless. Bring me back grilling weather like today everyday. This cold and dry sucks.

Dont feel bad guys in NC. KCAE is 70 right now and will end up cold and dry for the next 180 hrs + looking at bufkit.

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I do remember a few years back middle 2000 's we were forecasted to get 6 inches of snow. Van Denton on FOX 8 was showing NAM Model that he said had done well with the western slope snow for our mountains in NC.It showed us with 6in snow. The snow hit south of us in Georgia up to Charlotte got a surprise snow and we got zip nada not even a flake.

Just saying it can happen and at last minute change.

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As an aside, if we do manage to pick up a coating of snowfall on Tuesday (obviously a big if), can we make a run at single digits on Tuesday night?  It looks like mid-teens as it is without snowcover.

I think the lows are going to come by cold air advection. If we can get the snow cover to last through Wednesday than that could be the night we really drop off. But even with temps below freezing all day Wednesday, the sun will probably melt much of what does accumulate.

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I do remember a few years back middle 2000 's we were forecasted to get 6 inches of snow. Van Denton on FOX 8 was showing NAM Model that he said had done well with the western slope snow for our mountains in NC.It showed us with 6in snow. The snow hit south of us in Georgia up to Charlotte got a surprise snow and we got zip nada not even a flake.

Just saying it can happen and at last minute change.

We have a lot better modeling now than we did in 2000. Those surprise snowstorm are less likely now than they were then.

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18z GFS looks a little wetter. Now has a good part of North NC at or greater than .1     

 

gfs_namer_036_precip_p24.gif

okay, I'm confused (becuase I hardly know how to interpret these maps) but why am I seeing green in the FAY region but nothing in the forecast? Is it just going to be rain here? How can you tell? What is preventing this system from giving the Fayetteville region even a dusting?

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I do remember a few years back middle 2000 's we were forecasted to get 6 inches of snow. Van Denton on FOX 8 was showing NAM Model that he said had done well with the western slope snow for our mountains in NC.It showed us with 6in snow. The snow hit south of us in Georgia up to Charlotte got a surprise snow and we got zip nada not even a flake.

Just saying it can happen and at last minute change.

As CAD said modeling is much better now. The only suprise might be that the banding is hard to predict and could over perform

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18z GFS looks a little wetter. Now has a good part of North NC at or greater than .1     

 

okay, I'm confused (becuase I hardly know how to interpret these maps) but why am I seeing green in the FAY region but nothing in the forecast? Is it just going to be rain here? How can you tell? What is preventing this system from giving the Fayetteville region even a dusting?

There's green in the FAY area, but that shade of green corresponds to .01" to .09" of precipitation. FAY is just on the fringe of this area, very close to having no precip at all on this map. One can infer from that that FAY should only get .01" to .03" precipitation, which is barely anything. That small of precip would most likely evaporate before it hits the ground, so that's why forecasters aren't counting on any precip in FAY.

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There's green in the FAY area, but that shade of green corresponds to .01" to .09" of precipitation. FAY is just on the fringe of this area, very close to having no precip at all on this map. One can infer from that that FAY should only get .01" to .03" precipitation, which is barely anything. That small of precip would most likely evaporate before it hits the ground, so that's why forecasters aren't counting on any precip in FAY.

 

I'm pretty sure models take into account evaporation.  Nevertheless, as you said, it's very little precipitation and it might even be of the liquid variety that far south.  At best, it's flurries.

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They just broke that 2 weeks ago, DC got 5". With this storm JI will be above average for seasonal snowfall, if you read there forum you would think it never snows there. This will be JI's 4th 4"+ storm in the past 5 weeks. I am supposed to be in NoVA on Wednesday, if GFS shows this negative tilted I am going up a day earlier. It's never snowing here again, might as well chase to see snow.

No they didn't. They picked up 1.9. Someone said it in that thread. JI doesn't live in DC.
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No they didn't. They picked up 1.9. Someone said it in that thread. JI doesn't live in DC.

 

Most of the district did get >2", but DCA is like a slice of hell with all the warmth around the airport, LMAO.

 

--------------

 

I will worship at the altar of DT if I get 2" as he shows. I think he's just doing his typical deal where he pays no attention to NC and just draws lines, though, LOL.

1604928_635402856506976_2119743903_n.jpg 

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Most of the district did get >2", but DCA is like a slice of hell with all the warmth around the airport, LMAO.

 

--------------

 

I will worship at the altar of DT if I get 2" as he shows. I think he's just doing his typical deal where he pays no attention to NC and just draws lines, though, LOL.

1604928_635402856506976_2119743903_n.jpg 

I really think most of his lines are that way. RAH does support him on the lower end, though, so he's got that going for him.
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Impossible to shift a QPF axis centered in NOVA significantly south enough to matter inside 72 hours this time of year (like we saw was taking shape Sat/Sun), and with the advance in computational power and algorithms models run, trillion dollars to a donut type deal.  Shifting a secondary max 20-30 miles in the Coastal Plain, doable, but that is if the NAM/RGEM/NMM are to be believed.  Like many, I have been suckered into shoving all in on the NAM too many times, not buying it.  The 18z RGEM while more subdued, streak originates on the front end best I can tell, rather than what the NAM cooks up, which is definitely on the back.  18z reflect at 30hrs pulled from the RAH page...

 

conusnest_18z_refd_1000m_f30.gif

 

SN output pulled from the model center

 

post-382-0-36227100-1390262515_thumb.jpg

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That DT map is another Person county special! Roxboro/ Timberlake 2-4"

 

Too low. Extend that 3-6" further south. Same with the  4-8 2-4 and 1-2.

 

Looking at the models over the last 24-36 hr and the recent runs of how the axis of heaviest moisture sets up I could see the totals on the low side on the southern end.

:ph34r:  :P

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Impossible to shift a QPF axis centered in NOVA significantly south enough to matter inside 72 hours this time of year (like we saw was taking shape Sat/Sun), and with the advance in computational power and algorithms models run, trillion dollars to a donut type deal.  Shifting a secondary max 20-30 miles in the Coastal Plain, doable, but that is if the NAM/RGEM/NMM are to be believed.  Like many, I have been suckered into shoving all in on the NAM too many times, not buying it.  The 18z RGEM while more subdued, streak originates on the front end best I can tell, rather than what the NAM cooks up, which is definitely on the back.  18z reflect at 30hrs pulled from the RAH page...

 

conusnest_18z_refd_1000m_f30.gif

 

SN output pulled from the model center

 

attachicon.gif18zhighresnam.JPG

 

A lot of ifs involved with this but then when is it not like this.....the NAM is being the NAM, I assume since you never txt me you didn't pull the trigger on the 45-70 huh.

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