packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the NAM is right NoVA may get a foot of snow. Negative tilt vort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the NAM is right NoVA may get a foot of snow. Negative tilt vort... Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And that's the ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 9z sref plumes are backing down from earlier. Average about an inch for Greensboro. Was over 2 inches earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And that's the ballgame. It still looks like we will get at least an inch or so up our way based on the NAM. I am happy with anything at this point with the way this winter has gone so far. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012012&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Turner Team, on 20 Jan 2014 - 09:17 AM, said:Turner Team, on 20 Jan 2014 - 09:17 AM, said: It still looks like we will get at least an inch or so up our way based on the NAM. I am happy with anything at this point with the way this winter has gone so far. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012012&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=039 I'd almost rather not have an inch at this point. It adds insult to injury while MA is getting 6"+. /weenierant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Allen's map looks good compared to the 12z NAM. Big question is how much of this is rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, an inch does nothing at this point for me. (That's what she said.) I wanted enough to get a day off from work to enjoy it. Wow, what a brutal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Let's root for DC to get snow. They are finally going to break the snow drought of less than 2 inches for an event since January 2011 unless some magic happens. Temps won't mess them up like all the other massive busts over the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A surface low crossing overhead or transferring to the coast or whatever doesn't give me confidence in an all snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Local news mets are now calling for anywhere from dusting to 2" in SeVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Let's root for DC to get snow. They are finally going to break the snow drought of less than 2 inches for an event since January 2011 unless some magic happens. Temps won't mess them up like all the other massive busts over the past 2 years. They just broke that 2 weeks ago, DC got 5". With this storm JI will be above average for seasonal snowfall, if you read there forum you would think it never snows there. This will be JI's 4th 4"+ storm in the past 5 weeks. I am supposed to be in NoVA on Wednesday, if GFS shows this negative tilted I am going up a day earlier. It's never snowing here again, might as well chase to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Allen's map looks good compared to the 12z NAM. Big question is how much of this is rain or snow. That should all be wraparound snow in NC, don't buy that much wraparound precip, but verbatim that should all be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Boston get's another 10"+ snowstorm, going back to last February, they are probably 200%+ of seasonal snowfall, just crazy the run they are on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 DT has me in 2-4 and Alan has me in 0.5-1and NWS up to 1 inch ? I say there's a chance I may see an inch out of this? Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h My first forecast map for Jan 21-22nd event. Will update later today if data warrants changes. #snow pic.twitter.com/4J4oJeNupJ 4:47 AM - 20 Jan 2014 · Details Flag mediaFlagged (learn more) Expand Collapse Frosty, completely ignore DT's map. Completely ignore it. Allan's guess, while still maybe a bit high, is much better. If the NAM is right NoVA may get a foot of snow. Negative tilt vort... Both are good Mets. Not sure if they possibly took this into account too. But today is going to be in the 60s and 50s further north. Tomorrow the snow is going to be moving in at the wrong part of the day. Noon and after. That means solar radiation coming through the clouds. Unless it snows extremely hard. NC/VA liable to see 0 accumlation out of this. I have a feeling this is going to be another infamous NC snow where it snows for hours and nothing to show for it. By the time the sun goes down the storm is pulling out. If anything this looks good for SNE--- DE,NJ points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Impressive for a pure northern stream piece of energy…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Let's root for DC to get snow. They are finally going to break the snow drought of less than 2 inches for an event since January 2011 unless some magic happens. Temps won't mess them up like all the other massive busts over the past 2 years. It's not like they had a historic winter in 2010 and immediately started whining the next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Both are good Mets. Not sure if they possibly took this into account too. But today is going to be in the 60s and 50s further north. Tomorrow the snow is going to be moving in at the wrong part of the day. Noon and after. That means solar radiation coming through the clouds. Unless it snows extremely hard. NC/VA liable to see 0 accumlation out of this. I have a feeling this is going to be another infamous NC snow where it snows for hours and nothing to show for it. By the time the sun goes down the storm is pulling out. If anything this looks good for SNE--- DE,NJ points NE. For NoVA it's in the low 20's when it starts snowing and drops into the low teens during the peak, 850's are -10 to -18, this will be amazingly high ratio snow, really windy/blowing/drifting, we have never seen a snowstorm with this type of cold. Richmond is in the mid 30's when it starts but drops fast to mid-20's and finishes in high teens, this will be a very big impact storm for Richmond and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Anybody got snow totals from 0z euro? A surface low crossing overhead or transferring to the coast or whatever doesn't give me confidence in an all snow profile. I guess we better be rooting for the Euro. From what I see on Ewall looks further south with the vortmax- northern SC. Appears N va would get snow. But judging by this deepest moisture is further south-- SVA and NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 DT has me in 2-4 and Alan has me in 0.5-1and NWS up to 1 inch ? I say there's a chance I may see an inch out of this? Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h My first forecast map for Jan 21-22nd event. Will update later today if data warrants changes. #snow pic.twitter.com/4J4oJeNupJ 4:47 AM - 20 Jan 2014 · Details Flag mediaFlagged (learn more) Expand Collapse is this map for Jan 21-22 or the 25? at the top it says 21 and the bottom 25th. i'll take 1-2 inches and run, we're going to run out of time if something doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 I agree that DT's map is overdone for much of NC, but I still think the northern counties (i.e. north of I40/HWY 64) have a good opportunity to pickup the first accumulating snow of the season (.5-1"), and that's a win for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 is this map for Jan 21-22 or the 25? at the top it says 21 and the bottom 25th. i'll take 1-2 inches and run, we're going to run out of time if something doesn't happen. It's for tomorrow. Not sure why he had the date wrong....and for last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like nothing to see here. Euro is still probably lagging. The 06z GFS moved further north. I'm sure the 12z Euro will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 After this sun and temp across the triad today, and with the timing of the event tomorrow pm, this is a non-sticker. Just not enough precip rate to overcome ground conditions except maybe grassy surfaces. If we could slow this thing down a hair then central nc might have a better chance. This system is gone in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like nothing to see here. Euro is still probably lagging. The 06z GFS moved further north. I'm sure the 12z Euro will follow suit. Some of us will probably see a light, spotty flurry/sprinkle mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think its about time to close this thread down...the models are getting drier and drier....I believe temps will be a bust the last event I was suppose to get to 33 that night the lowest I made it was 43 seems like the same story again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think its about time to close this thread down...We have one member under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We have one member under a winter storm watch. Who, Disc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Who, Disc?met85, snowjoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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