Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'll never forget that storm. That was really the first time that you had such a major bust in the modern internet era. A lot of the more bullish forecasters changed their forecasting style after that. I remember watching the weather channel as with each consecutive update Paul Kocin pushed the 12"+ contour further and further north. My school was closed for two consecutive days and we barely see advisory criteria totals. I'm still amazed that the models did such a bad job with that one. Obviously it was a unique setup but to be off by that many miles is crazy. The storm still happened and many areas did get 2 to 3 feet but a couple hundred miles north of where it was supposed to happen. And everyone busted on that one. It wasn't like some forecasters went low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Have Erie and Ontario frozen over yet? Is this cold coming in with wind? Hmmmm, might be pretty good ski conditions in the favored areas. Road trip? Lake Erie still has some open water but it will likely freeze during this next cold period. Lake Ontario is too deep to freeze outside of the shallower areas near the shoreline. Here is a cool link that illustrates this point, the image is from last week and if you click "download large image" you will see all of the Great Lakes. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82836 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Lake Erie still has some open water but it will likely freeze during this next cold period. Lake Ontario is too deep to freeze outside of the shallower areas near the shoreline. Lake Ontario froze over back in February 1934, I believe, but we are obviously not going to be getting as cold as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 here's the all time coldest weeks for NYC...Also the longest streak of max days 32 or lower... ave temp...month/day/year... 02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918 08.8......2/8-14/1899 10.9......2/3-9/1895 12.2......1/6-12/1968 12.3......1/11-17/1893 12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881 12.7......2/12-18/1979 13.5......2/4-10/1934 13.5......1/22-28/1888 13.6......1/9-15/1886 13.6......1/10-16/1912 13.9......1/15-21/1994 14.1......2/1-7/1886 14.6......1/15-21/1935 14.6......1/23-29/1936 ...................... longest streak of below freezing max days since 1930...1917-18 added... 16 in 1960-61... 13 in 2000-01... 12 in 2002-03... 12 in 1977-78... 12 in 1957-58... 12 in 1935-36... 11 in 1980-81... 11 in 1978-79... 10 in 1958-59... 10 in 1947-48... 10 in 1917-18 ..9 in 2006-07 ..9 in 2004-05... ..9 in 2003-04... ..9 in 1995-96... ..9 in 1989-90... ..9 in 1976-77... ..9 in 1967-68... ..9 in 1933-34... ..8 in 1983-84... ..7 in 1999-00... ..7 in 1987-88... ..7 in 1963-64... ..7 in 1962-63... Thanks for adding those stats, Uncle. The models are continuing to indicate that we wont have the big warm up this time between the cold so under 20 degrees for the best 7 day looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 A rough guess from looking at the forecast for the next seven days has NYC at around a -16 degree departure which would put the weekly temperature right around 16 degrees. It will be interesting to see the exact number once we get into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 96 was incredible. Back in the Shenandoah Valley, we got 3-4 feet of snow.Yeah, that March 4-6, 2001, "Greatest SnowStorm that Never Happened" was covered by 1010 WINS as a live event days before its supposed beginning. 30" in 60hrs.!!! was AccuWeather's mantra. The tombstone reads [5.5" and still waiting]. Oh wow march 2001....what a bust. I remember the weather channel's forecast calling for 2 feet with more very much possible here. We got a few inches of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 NYC at 9 degrees making this the 5th day of the month with a reading in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 5 degrees here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Something wrong with the obs at KNYC. It's currently 5 or 6 in the park not 9. Something screwy like this happened the other night after the artic front passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's 9 in Soho so why can't it be 9 in the park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 NYC at 9 degrees making this the 5th day of the month with a reading in the single digits. When was the last time we had this many? 2009? 2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 With low temps overperforming this morning I wonder if tonight's lows will be even colder than forecast. Made it down to 3 last night and 3 is the forecast again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RRW14 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Something wrong with the obs at KNYC. It's currently 5 or 6 in the park not 9. Something screwy like this happened the other night after the artic front passed Down to 7 at 7:51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 When was the last time we had this many? 2009? 2004? 8 days in January 2005 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-D11472F1-F3FE-461F-9C7A-EF2376601809.pdf 7 days in January 2004 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-69949DBE-67C6-42DC-B855-F47AF5DAAC3C.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 3 degrees this morning. beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 8 days in January 2005 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-D11472F1-F3FE-461F-9C7A-EF2376601809.pdf 7 days in January 2004 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-69949DBE-67C6-42DC-B855-F47AF5DAAC3C.pdf We'll be up to 7 after Friday with probably more before the month is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 7* in 11219 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 We'll be up to 7 after Friday with probably more before the month is out. Yeah, a looked up a several more high single digit months at NYC. 8 in January 1994 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-49990F83-98EE-4A8D-AAAE-98D73F6E217F.pdf 8 in February 1979 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-AA58138E-83E1-43BE-B7A6-25115494779C.pdf 6 in january 1977 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-D4099DFE-8554-45DB-845A-1A31776F9836.pdf 7 January 1982 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-C9108FE6-FD46-4213-B23B-0333FD7A55F7.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah, a looked up a several more high single digit months at NYC. 8 in January 1994 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-49990F83-98EE-4A8D-AAAE-98D73F6E217F.pdf 8 in February 1979 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-AA58138E-83E1-43BE-B7A6-25115494779C.pdf 6 in january 1977 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-D4099DFE-8554-45DB-845A-1A31776F9836.pdf 7 January 1982 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-C9108FE6-FD46-4213-B23B-0333FD7A55F7.pdf Pretty crazy that we can top some of the all time great Januarys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Pretty crazy that we can top some of the all time great Januarys. The odd thing about this month is the number of mild days between the outbreaks which those months didn't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Something wrong with the obs at KNYC. It's currently 5 or 6 in the park not 9. Something screwy like this happened the other night after the artic front passed It dropped the 7 for two obs, but the 6 hr min/max aren't showing up. The entire station is screwed up right now, and it's been that way for well over a week. Somebody needs to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Currently 4F and windy, ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It will be great to see if we can replenish the probably 3-5" that will compact and melt with another 4-8" in the next week and add on to our snowpack. That is what I loved about the winter a few years ago. Huge storm followed by huge storm followed by another 10" or so with no time to fully melt ! Must have been a 2-3 foot solid snowpack here almost. During that time I went to high point state park, and I'm telling you....they literally had a 4 foot SOLID snowpack. Was just incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 because it torched for a week this January the average since Dec. 31st is about 32.0 not counting today...I think NYC has a chance to end up with an average January temperature below 30.0...making it on par with 1984's... 29.9...1985's... 28.8...1965's... 29.7...1982 was 26.1...The coldest 30 day average could end up around 28.0 which is on par with...1956-57... 27.8...2008-09... 27.9...1964-65... 28.0... the coldest 30 days since 1930... Season....30 day ave...1933-34.....19.6.....1935-36.....20.4.....1947-48.....21.5.....1976-77.....21.9.....1980-81.....22.2.....2003-04.....22.4.....1993-94.....23.5.....1944-45.....23.8.....1969-70.....24.0.....1970-71.....24.2.....The warmest...season....30 day ave...1997-98.....37.3......2011-12.....37.0......1948-49.....36.3......1931-32.....35.8......2007-08.....35.7......1952-53.....35.5......2001-02.....35.4......1936-37.....34.9......1990-91.....34.5......1932-33.....33.9......1950-51.....33.0......1974-75.....33.0...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 I will update these satellite images over the next week or so we can monitor how quickly the bays freeze up. We will probably have some of the best ice images since the MODIS went into operation next week with so many hours below freezing and several lows in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There should be some nice pics of the freeze ups as well over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 3 nites below 0 as per 12z Euro ? , This is Tues Minus 10 at the park prob too strong , but below 0 is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 3 nites below 0 as per 12z Euro ? , This is Tues Minus 10 at the park prob too strong , but below 0 is on the table I think the park is going to need -30 or lower 850s to get it done. That run has DCA, BWI, PHL, and NYC below zero. Last time that happened was 20 years ago in January 1994. There is a reason the streak has lasted 20 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I will update these satellite images over the next week or so we can monitor how quickly the bays freeze up. We will probably have some of the best ice images since the MODIS went into operation next week with so many hours below freezing and several lows in the single digits. Screen shot 2014-01-22 at 12.24.34 PM.png I also wonder how much of the great lakes can freeze up. Apparently they have never completely frozen over. They have a good start though Nice Highway for the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Eight degrees at EWR...quite a frigid night, and Monday night looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.