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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Temps are flying up at the top of the mountain... its now +20F at 3,600ft and -9F at MVL at 750ft.  Nearly 30 degree difference now.

 

BTV noted the differences in the AFD...good luck trying to forecast this in the grids, with 25-40 degree differences in the mountain zones between upper elevations and lower elevations:

 

WIDELY VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CAPTURE FROM AVBL MODEL
DATASETS AS RADIATIONAL EFFECTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENT INVERSION/PBL
LOW LEVEL MIXING TO VARYING DEGREES ALL PLAY HAVOC ON
PREDICTABILITY. CASE IN POINT IS LAKE PLACID AT -17F AND WHITEFACE
SUMMIT SOME 3 KFT HIGHER AT +19F HIGHIGHTING THE GOOFINESS THIS
MORNING.

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Thanks to all for your advice on the area for my visit there last weekend. Completely fell in love with Vermont. We stayed in Burlington (in the Hotel Vermont which was a fantastic hotel). The sights across the frozen Lake Champlain were great. Drove around on Saturday to see the areas around Burlington, loved Warren,, was stunned at the beauty of the drive out 100 through the Green Mountain National Forest. Went up to Trapp Lodge on Sunday and went snowshoeing. 

 

Absolutely perfect weekend (including the fresh snow Sunday morning). 

 

Hoping to come back with the whole family this summer.

 

And, in a perfect world, when my youngest clears HS in six years, would love to find a way to re-located up to the state the empty nest into retirement years. Jealous of all who live up there now.

Even nicer in the summer/fall.

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Looks like CON tied their record of -8F. Yesterday's record was -20F from the 1800s so this one was susceptible.

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Interesting

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

846 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...COLD END TO FEBRUARY AND START TO MARCH AT CARIBOU...

THIS MORNING MARCH 7TH WAS THE 11TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A LOW

TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO AT CARIBOU. THIS IS BY FAR THE LONGEST

STRETCH OF SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AT CARIBOU SO LATE IN THE WINTER

SEASON. BACK IN LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH 1980 THERE WAS A

STRETCH OF 7 NIGHTS WITH A LOW BELOW ZERO. THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR

THE MOST CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH A LOW BELOW ZERO WAS 20...WHICH

WAS SET BACK IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 1961.

SO FAR THIS WINTER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 48 NIGHTS WITH A LOW

TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO. THIS IS THE MOST SINCE THE WINTER OF

2002-2003 WHEN THERE WAS A TOTAL OF 56 SUCH NIGHTS. ON

AVERAGE (1981-2010 NORMALS)...THERE ARE 38 NIGHTS WITH A LOW

TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO AT CARIBOU EACH WINTER.

SO FAR THIS MARCH (THROUGH YESTERDAY MARCH 6TH)...THE AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE WAS 1.7 DEGREES...WHICH WAS 17.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THIS IS THE COLDEST START TO THE MONTH OF MARCH ON RECORD AT

CARIBOU.

GOING BACK TO FEBRUARY 25TH...THE 10 DAY STRETCH FROM FEBRUARY

25TH THROUGH MARCH 6TH WAS ALSO THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT CARIBOU.

000

NOUS41 KCAR 071322

PNSCAR

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-080121-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

821 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS THIS MORNING...

LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE

BIG BLACK RIVER (774 FT) -23 0430 AM 03/07

VAN BUREN (458 FT) -20 0730 AM 03/07

LILLE (459 FT) -19 0700 AM 03/07

DICKEY (943 FT) -19 0600 AM 03/07

NINE-MILE BRIDGE (1037 FT) -19 0600 AM 03/07

KOKADJO - MCOOP (1212 FT) -18 0445 AM 03/07

1 SW FORT KENT (658 FT) -17 0503 AM 03/07

PRESQUE ISLE AIRPORT -17 0415 AM 03/07

OXBOW - MCOOP (610 FT) -17 0445 AM 03/07

1 SSE FORT KENT (531 FT) -16 0542 AM 03/07

FOX BROOK (880 FT) -16 0230 AM 03/07

5 SE GRAND ISLE (711 FT) -15 0501 AM 03/07

MADAWASKA (503 FT) -14 0504 AM 03/07

RIPOGENUS DAM - MCOOP -13 0500 AM 03/07

DANFORTH - MCOOP (466 FT) -13 0605 AM 03/07

HOULTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT -13 0653 AM 03/07

DOVER-FOXCROFT (307 FT) -12 0700 AM 03/07

1 NE CARIBOU (544 FT) -12 0537 AM 03/07

MACHIAS WWTP (16 FT) -12 0700 AM 03/07

CARIBOU (624 FT) -12 0654 AM 03/07

4 ENE BAKER LAKE (1279 FT) -12 0715 AM 03/07

2 SSW LILY BAY (1049 FT) -12 0545 AM 03/07

1 E MILFORD (49 FT) -11 0531 AM 03/07

3 NW MONTICELLO (574 FT) -10 0545 AM 03/07

4 E NEW SWEDEN (680 FT) -10 0503 AM 03/07

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The Euro is wavering back south again for next week. I for one am not getting my hopes up given how things have gone this year. We may see a moderate event, but the jackpot double digit totals are most likely going to end up in the southern mountains and interior MA.  The first phase of energy happens over the Mid/Lower MS Valley followed by a second positively tilted piece of energy dropping south out of the Upper GL in the overnight run.

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First Ct Lake with -28F this AM.

 

I think that thermometer is right across from the dam, which is quite a bit above the river (atleast 50'). Its not on top of a hill or anything, but Im sure you could find a better spot for radiating. Id love to have a thermometer in one of those little weenie valleys up there.

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SLK rose 28-degrees in one hour this morning.

7:51am...-6F

8:51am...22F

That's impressive at around one degree every two minutes all hour.

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SLK rose 28-degrees in one hour this morning.

7:51am...-6F

8:51am...22F

That's impressive at around one degree every two minutes all hour.

I was just going to post exactly this!  That's pretty cool.  Perfect conditions for it.

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I was just going to post exactly this! That's pretty cool. Perfect conditions for it.

Yeah, over this way at MVL, we did 16-degrees in one hour, and already have done a 43-degree temperature rise between 6am and noon.

I could tell when it was -9F down in the valley, but +20F at the top of the mountain, that when the inversion broke and we mixed out, temps were going to come up real fast in the valleys.

Currently 34/-5 with 18% RH at MVL.

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Big Black River, ME is working on a huge diurnal swing, -23f to 34f so far today.

 

Edit: They jumped to 37f as I was posting this for an even 60 degree spread.

USGS.01010070.18.00021..20140228.2014030

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Gotta love dry spring air masses for this stuff...usually a lot of these days in the next couple months. Like lows of 20F and highs of 70F later in April...good stuff.

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I think that thermometer is right across from the dam, which is quite a bit above the river (atleast 50'). Its not on top of a hill or anything, but Im sure you could find a better spot for radiating. Id love to have a thermometer in one of those little weenie valleys up there.

I need to get up there sometime. The furthest north I've been is a bit north of Milan/Dummer. We must have a few weenie Big Black River-like spots that routinely push -40 on the coldest shots. Plym/NHDOT should get an RWIS somewhere up there on rt3.

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The Euro is wavering back south again for next week. I for one am not getting my hopes up given how things have gone this year. We may see a moderate event, but the jackpot double digit totals are most likely going to end up in the southern mountains and interior MA.  The first phase of energy happens over the Mid/Lower MS Valley followed by a second positively tilted piece of energy dropping south out of the Upper GL in the overnight run.

Pack it in. I think it's over. Anything that falls after next week isn't going to stick around very long.

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Well some of you can continue worrying, but I won't. This system doesn't care what all of the others have previously done. We've had plenty of SNE/CNE jacks, cutters, and Cape scrapes. VT has just had some relative bad luck so far. If you guys had had your usual upslope fluff I don't think any of you would be complaining about the synoptic bad luck. Let's let it play out...shall we?

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I need to get up there sometime. The furthest north I've been is a bit north of Milan/Dummer. We must have a few weenie Big Black River-like spots that routinely push -40 on the coldest shots. Plym/NHDOT should get an RWIS somewhere up there on rt3.

 

One of the little elevated valleys on route 3 north of the First CT Lake would be a good spot for one.

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Well some of you can continue worrying, but I won't. This system doesn't care what all of the others have previously done. We've had plenty of SNE/CNE jacks, cutters, and Cape scrapes. VT has just had some relative bad luck so far. If you guys had had your usual upslope fluff I don't think any of you would be complaining about the synoptic bad luck. Let's let it play out...shall we?

But it's no fun if Dendrite doesn't worry!

I'm not worried about this one...seasons almost over, it's going to go where it wants to. Today is bringing me spring fever, haha.

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Well some of you can continue worrying, but I won't. This system doesn't care what all of the others have previously done. We've had plenty of SNE/CNE jacks, cutters, and Cape scrapes. VT has just had some relative bad luck so far. If you guys had had your usual upslope fluff I don't think any of you would be complaining about the synoptic bad luck. Let's let it play out...shall we?

 

The 12z Euro is in, and it continues with a SNE/CNE jackpot. We would be on the northwest flank and with shadowing I would go with 3-6", maybe 4-8" on the upper end if that solution verified. This is becoming more consistent now in the op run.

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Big Black River, ME is working on a huge diurnal swing, -23f to 34f so far today.

 

Edit: They jumped to 37f as I was posting this for an even 60 degree spread.

USGS.01010070.18.00021..20140228.2014030

 

Looks like their range was 56 or 57 degrees yesterday, too. 

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And, in a perfect world, when my youngest clears HS in six years, would love to find a way to re-located up to the state the empty nest into retirement years. Jealous of all who live up there now. 

 

Like I said, Zen, I did a 12 year bid in your hood, followed by 18 years of hard time in Fl.  Took me 30 years but I finally escaped, made my way up here and I've never looked back.  Come get some!

 

Pack it in. I think it's over. Anything that falls after next week isn't going to stick around very long.

But it's no fun if Dendrite doesn't worry!

I'm not worried about this one...seasons almost over, it's going to go where it wants to. Today is bringing me spring fever, haha.

 

I've had my fill.  I mentally check out of winter mode by 3/15 most every year.  Go big or go away from this point on.  I just ask one thing over the next 6 months...keep that high heat and humidity outta my face!

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A few 60+ ranges in N ME too. I'm not sure if that St. John River site is accurate, but they're sporting a 47F/-21F spread so far. That afternoon temp looks a bit jumpy though. Big Black River is 40/-23 so far.

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A few 60+ ranges in N ME too. I'm not sure if that St. John River site is accurate, but they're sporting a 47F/-21F spread so far. That afternoon temp looks a bit jumpy though. Big Black River is 40/-23 so far.

 Highly doubt that 47 - even Big Black's 40 was a bit surprising, as other N.Maine points appeared to top out in mid-upper 30s.  I'll probably have a 50F+ spread as it was about -15 this AM.

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 Highly doubt that 47 - even Big Black's 40 was a bit surprising, as other N.Maine points appeared to top out in mid-upper 30s.  I'll probably have a 50F+ spread as it was about -15 this AM.

It was only 37F on lava rock today. No way Black got to 47 or likely 40F.

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It was only 37F on lava rock today. No way Black got to 47 or likely 40F.

Yeah they got low/mid 40s up there. They downslope there with SSW flow.

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