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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Well this next week is going to suck.

Haha...cold and dry for the most part...I'm not as bullish on the upslope in the next 48 hours. Today was sneaky warm though...didn't expect upper 30s at 1500ft and 40s below that elevation.

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Haha...cold and dry for the most part...I'm not as bullish on the upslope in the next 48 hours. Today was sneaky warm though...didn't expect upper 30s at 1500ft and 40s below that elevation.

 

Yeah patches of bare ground showing here and there. It is pretty lousy for sure with no real events upcoming of any real consequence. Its definitely disappointing compared to the 30" depths to the south. Ahh well, definitely not our year for something memorable or major. Hopefully next winter will provide that.

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Yeah patches of bare ground showing here and there. It is pretty lousy for sure with no real events upcoming of any real consequence. Its definitely disappointing compared to the 30" depths to the south. Ahh well, definitely not our year for something memorable or major. Hopefully next winter will provide that.

 

Haha, I was with ya in January... but I'm fine with things right now in February heading into March.  I've still got 14-15" in the yard and I doubt there are many 30" depths left anywhere down south.  I think March 1st system has potential and the general pattern after that looks active.  We can snow into the end of April in the mountains, although the clock starts ticking in BTV after mid-March.  The next week has that dry look, but we should see periods of snow showers from time to time.  The mountain snowpack has recovered back up to at least a near-normal level...so although its not huge, its there and it'll snow again to add to it.

 

The one thing I think you'll learn, is that BTV isn't a snowpack location and overall can be frustrating at times in any pattern if you are trying to compare BTV's snowpack with the CAD locations in New England...and even into the ORH Hills often have more snow on the ground than the Valley.  When I lived there it didn't bother me because I was on Mansfield 5-days per week or more, and would see winter there all the time regardless, but you'll find that even a 18+ inch snowpack at BTV is relatively rare.  I'd be curious to see how often that occurs.

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Yeah patches of bare ground showing here and there. It is pretty lousy for sure with no real events upcoming of any real consequence. Its definitely disappointing compared to the 30" depths to the south. Ahh well, definitely not our year for something memorable or major. Hopefully next winter will provide that.

 

Haha, I was with ya in January... but I'm fine with things right now in February heading into March.  I've still got 14-15" in the yard and I doubt there are many 30" depths left anywhere down south.  I think March 1st system has potential and the general pattern after that looks active.  We can snow into the end of April in the mountains, although the clock starts ticking in BTV after mid-March.  The next week has that dry look, but we should see periods of snow showers from time to time.  The mountain snowpack has recovered back up to at least a near-normal level...so although its not huge, its there and it'll snow again to add to it.

 

The one thing I think you'll learn, is that BTV isn't a snowpack location and overall can be frustrating at times in any pattern if you are trying to compare BTV's snowpack with the CAD locations in New England...and even into the ORH Hills often have more snow on the ground than the Valley.  When I lived there it didn't bother me because I was on Mansfield 5-days per week or more, and would see winter there all the time regardless, but you'll find that even a 18+ inch snowpack at BTV is relatively rare.  I'd be curious to see how often that occurs.

 

I’ve been meaning to comment on the BTV snowpack.  Based on what I’ve seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if this season came in well above average there in terms of snowpack – perhaps not in snow depth days, but at least in the number of days with at least an inch of snow on the ground.  According to the BTV NWS climate data, there’s been at least an inch on the ground continuously since December 12th, and that is far from normal based on what I’ve seen over the past several seasons.  With the current forecast I would guess that they are easily going to cruise into March without ever losing the snowpack, and I don’t know the last time I saw the snow last there for such a long stretch.  In that respect, BTV has probably exceeded many SNE locations this season, even if the snow depth hasn’t been as high.  I didn’t have the perspective when I was younger and lived in the Champlain Valley, but watching over the past few seasons, I get the impression that it’s a lot like many places in SNE, and having continuous snow on the ground throughout the entire winter may not actually be typical.

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I’ve been meaning to comment on the BTV snowpack. Based on what I’ve seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if this season came in well above average there in terms of snowpack – perhaps not in snow depth days, but at least in the number of days with at least an inch of snow on the ground. According to the BTV NWS climate data, there’s been at least an inch on the ground continuously since December 12th, and that is far from normal based on what I’ve seen over the past several seasons. With the current forecast I would guess that they are easily going to cruise into March without ever losing the snowpack, and I don’t know the last time I saw the snow last there for such a long stretch. In that respect, BTV has probably exceeded many SNE locations this season, even if the snow depth hasn’t been as high. I didn’t have the perspective when I was younger and lived in the Champlain Valley, but watching over the past few seasons, I get the impression that it’s a lot like many places in SNE, and having continuous snow on the ground throughout the entire winter may not actually be typical.

That's actually fairly remarkable if BTV has had 1"+ since December 12....I think every year I lived there or went to UVM we had at least a couple near complete wipeouts except for snowbanks. East of the Spine axis is really the climo spot for snow cover though, and the further east the better.

Even here I find it fairly remarkable that since like November 20 or 23 (I forget the date off hand) I've had 1" or more in my yard. Granted it got fugly in January when it was down to 1-2" of clear ice/snow mix with 2" water sludge on top, and there were bare patches showing up in areas like open fields...but my flat open yard never melted out to grass.

It was an interesting snowpack season as the mountain snowpack has been below normal that whole time, sometimes by two feet or more. I highly doubt you'll ever find another winter where BTV goes that long with continuous snow cover, yet the mountains remain below normal in snow depth for that streak duration.

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Not bad.  The forecast for the next ~5 days shows some accumulating snow potential in a nickel/dime type pattern, with on-and-off chances throughout the week.  Shortwaves starting tonight, then again Weds, and again Thursday bring the chance of additional snow.

 

ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET OF 1-3" ACROSS THE DACKS AND 3-6"

ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT OVER THE 30-HR PERIOD.

 

Edit: a quick point and click shows 3-6" around Smuggler's Notch, while the Jay Peak area has a healthy 4-8"+ through tomorrow night.

 

I was reading the BTV NWS discussion and saw that, and that’s actually why I stopped to check in on the thread.  I hadn’t seen much in the typical models, but the BTV WRF does show some liquid.  I know the talk has been about how the global models are dry, but just read the BTV NWS discussion – there are four potential disturbances discussed in there, one on Monday into Tuesday, a second on Wednesday, a third on Thursday, and then a fourth on Saturday.  Any one (or more) of those could do its thing with the mountains.  It’s too bad that the most recent mixed precipitation storm was ill timed to come in just before the weekend, because most of the time, even if there’s not a synoptic storm around, those impulses take care of refreshing the slopes within a few days.  Even though they can be hard to time exactly, I like them because they’re much more reliable than big pie in the sky storms that might appear on the models a week out.  Also, they don’t bring the risk of warmth and rain if they move to the north/west of the area.  In some respects these are the bread and butter storms that help to get these mountains to 300”+ of snow each season and set the typical ski conditions apart from the rest of the region.  Just send some energy and a bit of moisture and let it run into the wall - these patterns are fun because you just never know when the Greens will pop a surprise.

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Is my recollection correct that March the last 3-4 seasons, has been very disappointing In the snow dept?

 

Nah, it’s about 50/50 with a couple below average (one real clunker in 2009-2010 and another just sort of meh in 2011-2012) and a couple decent ones.  I’ve added my March snowfall data below in a chart – you can typically double those number for the mountains, or, more than double them in some cases if it’s a season where the temperatures are getting marginal down here in the lower valleys.  PF may have the actual mountain numbers as well.

 

23FEB14A.jpg

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Nah, it’s about 50/50 with a couple below average (one real clunker in 2009-2010 and another just sort of meh in 2011-2012) and a couple decent ones.  I’ve added my March snowfall data below in a chart – you can typically double those number for the mountains, or, more than double them in some cases if it’s a season where the temperatures are getting marginal down here in the lower valleys.  PF may have the actual mountain numbers as well.

 

23FEB14A.jpg

Thx. I guess I blocked 2011 out of my mind since I blew out my acl on 3/20. But there r 3 real clunkers in there.

We r so close to some really fantastic conditions.

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

There was a fluffy 0.2” of snow on the board this morning.  I’m not sure exactly when it fell, but the BTV NWS discussion says it’s from one of the embedded shortwaves in the upper level trough that is moving into the area; this shortwave should be affecting the area through tonight with chances for snow showers.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 22.2 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

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There was a skiff of snow in town this morning, but not measurable....and 1/4" up at 1,500ft.

 

Here are the recent mountain snowfalls for March the past few years...2011 was largely in part to 30" that fell in the big storm on March 6-7th.  A vastly under-rated storm in New England, which I think ended up being BTV's 2nd largest on record (?) and we had 27" in Stowe Village for that one.  It was like a solid 3" QPF event with rain, then mixed, then just a whopping amount of snow.

 

2013...50"

2012...29"

2011...66"

2010...11"

2009...28"

2008...63"

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Speaking of the March 2011 storm... that is easily my favorite storm since moving to Stowe 4 years ago.  It snowed so freakin' hard that night... I remember going to bed at like 9:30-10pm with like 4-6" on the ground, and then going outside at 5am to just puking snowfall and to find out that 14" had fallen in 8 hours.  I still remember that drive up RT 108 which hadn't been plowed in a while, and I was literally plowing through the snow in my SUV. 

 

It was one of those perfectly timed storms with the heaviest snow falling all night long and into the morning hours, so the skiing was unreal. 

 

It did have a sharp gradient though, which this also shows again why us and SNE have different needs/wants when it comes to big storms.... it was in the 50s across SNE while it was in the 20s and snowing 2"/hr up here all night (see last point in this below image, 51F in ORH while BTV had a record setting snowstorm). 

 

 

Here's the snowfall map... very sharp gradient with that storm, even between the 27"-30" between Mansfield and Stowe Village, the Montpelier area seemed to get as much as 10" less and they are not far away.

 

 

Here's the BTV hourly snowfall, showing the heaviest and consistent snowfall overnight into the morning hours.

 

 

That storm will always be a favorite for this local area.

 

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March has been average to awful recently in my area - the last time I measured 20"+ in March was 2005, though 2007 and 2008 were fairly close. Last year's equinoctal 12" storm is my biggest in March since 2001; the 2011 VT crusher was 2" IP/ZR at my place.

This season is doing above avg for SDDs, and could wind up 4th of 16 (if no extended Morch), trailing only 3 biggies: 00-01, 07-08 (tops by far) and 08-09.

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Haha, I was with ya in January... but I'm fine with things right now in February heading into March.  I've still got 14-15" in the yard and I doubt there are many 30" depths left anywhere down south.  I think March 1st system has potential and the general pattern after that looks active.  We can snow into the end of April in the mountains, although the clock starts ticking in BTV after mid-March.  The next week has that dry look, but we should see periods of snow showers from time to time.  The mountain snowpack has recovered back up to at least a near-normal level...so although its not huge, its there and it'll snow again to add to it.

 

The one thing I think you'll learn, is that BTV isn't a snowpack location and overall can be frustrating at times in any pattern if you are trying to compare BTV's snowpack with the CAD locations in New England...and even into the ORH Hills often have more snow on the ground than the Valley.  When I lived there it didn't bother me because I was on Mansfield 5-days per week or more, and would see winter there all the time regardless, but you'll find that even a 18+ inch snowpack at BTV is relatively rare.  I'd be curious to see how often that occurs.

 

Since 1950 BTV has had an 18"+ snowpack in 24 out of the 64 years (38% of all years).

 

I’ve been meaning to comment on the BTV snowpack.  Based on what I’ve seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if this season came in well above average there in terms of snowpack – perhaps not in snow depth days, but at least in the number of days with at least an inch of snow on the ground.  According to the BTV NWS climate data, there’s been at least an inch on the ground continuously since December 12th, and that is far from normal based on what I’ve seen over the past several seasons.  With the current forecast I would guess that they are easily going to cruise into March without ever losing the snowpack, and I don’t know the last time I saw the snow last there for such a long stretch.  In that respect, BTV has probably exceeded many SNE locations this season, even if the snow depth hasn’t been as high.  I didn’t have the perspective when I was younger and lived in the Champlain Valley, but watching over the past few seasons, I get the impression that it’s a lot like many places in SNE, and having continuous snow on the ground throughout the entire winter may not actually be typical.

The current streak (consecutive days) of 74 days with a snowpack of 1" or greater at BTV is the 26th longest, so its not really that impressive, although certainly in the top half.

  1    131    4/13/1971  2    124    3/24/1944  3    119    4/ 2/1978  4    113    4/10/2001  5    112    3/20/1959  6    112    3/28/1918  7    110    4/ 3/1970  8    108    4/ 1/1969  9    108    3/27/1963 10    107    3/22/1982 11    105    3/22/1904 12    104    3/25/1917 13     93    3/ 6/2004 14     92    3/24/1914 15     87    4/ 5/1993 16     87    3/ 8/1986 17     84    3/28/1912 18     82    3/30/1958 19     81    3/27/2005 20     81    3/11/1977 21     81    3/18/1968 22     81    4/ 4/1956 23     80    3/23/1987 24     78    3/27/1947 25     75    3/19/2003 26     74    2/23/2014

As far as total days with snow depth greater than or equal to 1, we're at 83 days. The average days with snow depth of 1" or greater is actually 87.4 days, so we'll finish above normal.

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Since 1950 BTV has had an 18"+ snowpack in 24 out of the 64 years (38% of all years).

 

The current streak (consecutive days) of 74 days with a snowpack of 1" or greater at BTV is the 26th longest, so its not really that impressive, although certainly in the top half.

  1    131    4/13/1971  2    124    3/24/1944  3    119    4/ 2/1978  4    113    4/10/2001  5    112    3/20/1959  6    112    3/28/1918  7    110    4/ 3/1970  8    108    4/ 1/1969  9    108    3/27/1963 10    107    3/22/1982 11    105    3/22/1904 12    104    3/25/1917 13     93    3/ 6/2004 14     92    3/24/1914 15     87    4/ 5/1993 16     87    3/ 8/1986 17     84    3/28/1912 18     82    3/30/1958 19     81    3/27/2005 20     81    3/11/1977 21     81    3/18/1968 22     81    4/ 4/1956 23     80    3/23/1987 24     78    3/27/1947 25     75    3/19/2003 26     74    2/23/2014

As far as total days with snow depth greater than or equal to 1, we're at 83 days. The average days with snow depth of 1" or greater is actually 87.4 days, so we'll finish above normal.

 

Edited that a few times to remove missing years (data is reliable since about 1940), but all the data looks correct now.

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I will agree the snowpack has been persistent and I enjoyed that for sure. The cold has ensured that even if the depths have never been all that dramatic. Some mood flakes are flying this morning.

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I will agree the snowpack has been persistent and I enjoyed that for sure. The cold has ensured that even if the depths have never been all that dramatic. Some mood flakes are flying this morning.

 

Persistent but quality has been very poor. Mostly ice.

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Persistent but quality has been very poor. Mostly ice.

 

hahah true. A good month was glacier consistency.

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Speaking of the March 2011 storm... that is easily my favorite storm since moving to Stowe 4 years ago.  It snowed so freakin' hard that night... I remember going to bed at like 9:30-10pm with like 4-6" on the ground, and then going outside at 5am to just puking snowfall and to find out that 14" had fallen in 8 hours.  I still remember that drive up RT 108 which hadn't been plowed in a while, and I was literally plowing through the snow in my SUV. 

 

It was one of those perfectly timed storms with the heaviest snow falling all night long and into the morning hours, so the skiing was unreal. 

 

It did have a sharp gradient though, which this also shows again why us and SNE have different needs/wants when it comes to big storms.... it was in the 50s across SNE while it was in the 20s and snowing 2"/hr up here all night (see last point in this below image, 51F in ORH while BTV had a record setting snowstorm). 

 

attachicon.gifMarch2011.JPG

 

Here's the snowfall map... very sharp gradient with that storm, even between the 27"-30" between Mansfield and Stowe Village, the Montpelier area seemed to get as much as 10" less and they are not far away.

 

attachicon.gifMarch2011_snowfall.JPG

 

Here's the BTV hourly snowfall, showing the heaviest and consistent snowfall overnight into the morning hours.

 

attachicon.gifMarch2011_BTVsnowfall.JPG

 

That storm will always be a favorite for this local area.

 

Lies! All lies I tell you!....lol.  It's for this general phenomenon and the kick-a$$ upslope that I'll be moving soon to a house near you...hehe.

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Lies! All lies I tell you!....lol.  It's for this general phenomenon and the kick-a$$ upslope that I'll be moving soon to a house near you...hehe.

 

Well that was a synoptic event that just happened to be in the right place at the right time, lol.  Areas surrounding Montpelier do quite well in a lot of synoptic snow events on average, often better than here in anything with a SE moist flow. 

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Today has been the day of non-accumulating persistent flurries in the lower elevations around here.  Up at the mountain its maybe a half inch in the past 24 hours and right around an inch at 3,000ft.  Some incredibly slow snow rates, considering flakes have been in the air more often than not.

 

Feb24.gif

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Well that was a synoptic event that just happened to be in the right place at the right time, lol.  Areas surrounding Montpelier do quite well in a lot of synoptic snow events on average, often better than here in anything with a SE moist flow. 

 

Yeah, I was just yankin' your chain...hehe.  I know there have been synoptic systems where I've fared better than you as it all depends on, as you say, the right place at the right time.  It's the NW upslope I'm after, mostly.  Even with synoptic events though (specifically in the wake of coastals with subsequent moisture laden NW flow), your area can often tack on significant upslope at the tail end.  Add that to the upslope without a storm even being involved...that's the place at which I would be the happiest, I think. 

 

I mean, we often times do get in on some upslope with an unblocked flow, but Montpelier is usually at the drying up, tail end of it by the time it gets this far east.

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Yeah, I was just yankin' your chain...hehe. I know there have been synoptic systems where I've fared better than you as it all depends on, as you say, the right place at the right time. It's the NW upslope I'm after, mostly. Even with synoptic events though (specifically in the wake of coastals with subsequent moisture laden NW flow), your area can often tack on significant upslope at the tail end. Add that to the upslope without a storm even being involved...that's the place at which I would be the happiest, I think.

I mean, we often times do get in on some upslope with an unblocked flow, but Montpelier is usually at the drying up, tail end of it by the time it gets this far east.

And downstream from you in Barre Town we often have a few stray flurries when there is more showery type of stuff in Montpelier. I've left work many times when it was snowing only to get home to cloudy skies. I've also noticed that it sometimes is snowing down by the interstate exit where the Winooski Valley comes in and it drys up as you move down Rt. 2 towards E. Montpelier. It almost feels like the hills block the flow and dries up the snow.

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There is a streamer overhead now that I wasn't expecting. It has put down a dusting so far. We shall see how it plays out.

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Nice dendrites out there now with this streamer. Definitely pure fluff. Through all my complaints I must say VT can quickly give back a nice surprise when things start to look down. I love it when this kind of thing happens.

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1-2" up here last night...good squall when I first came in at 5am too.  I've got a sneaky feeling there's a bit more up high, but we'll see in a few minutes.

 

 

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

These are the times when snowfall record keeping can get a bit challenging – at least with respect to appropriately assigning rounds of snowfall to their respective storms.  However, after a thorough look through the appropriate sections of several of the most recent forecast discussions (thank you by the way BTV NWS for your excellent forecast discussions and the way the last 50 of them are made readily available) I believe that this morning’s accumulation is best assigned as upslope flow associated with the shortwave that passed through yesterday.  I went with that option based on the most recent discussions indicating that today’s shortwave, which was across southern lower Michigan and Lake Erie earlier this morning, isn’t expected to be affecting the area until mid morning into the afternoon.  A steady light snow was still falling this morning when I left the house, so there should be a bit more that will go into this event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 22.5

Snow Density: 4.4% H2O

Temperature: 12.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

 

The next shortwave in line is expected to come through tomorrow, with the potential for some associated squalls, followed by a fourth shortwave on Thursday.  After that, there is a potential Alberta Clipper system Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and then another potential system Monday into Tuesday.  That’s six potential systems in the span of roughly a week, so it’s a fairly active period of weather.

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