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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Are temps supposed to jump up at some point? Been out all afternoon setting up for a big snowmobile event and it's been very nasty. Windy with rain and occasional sleet and temps around 35F. This snow is packing nicely and expect it to freeze pretty solid.

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After 1" of snow and sleet last night we changed to freezing rain this AM.  High temp today is right now at 33.3F.  Glazed remained on the trees till early afternoon.  Glaze level seems to be just below me at 1000 feet. We should finally get the salt off the roads with the fropa.  Wonder if it will just end or turn over to a brief period of snow?

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Hello lightning. 

 

0.4" on the board this morning at 7:30

 

Yeah, had a few rumbles of thunder and literally, just now as I type, a flash of lighting.

 

34F & raining pretty hard all of a sudden.

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Pretty lousy if you are looking for snow:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...NOTHING NEW IN THE LATEST DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE DEVIATE FROM THE OVERALL THINKING OF COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RULE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM ONTARIO AND MOVES INTO
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER A SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH WOULD BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

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42/20

Warmest in probably like a month, but limited snow melt...low dews.

You should let Hoch or Hoff know that the vortex RWIS page is messed up. The locations don't correspond with the correct obs.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_nh_rwis.cgi?id=all

If you view the RWIS station data on mesowest or WU you'll see what I mean. Also, Canterbury still reads too warm with their T/Td, but that's been happening for years. I told them awhile back and they said it checked fine. I know it's BS though because it used to run neck and neck with my station temp wise and now it's always 3-4F warmer. When everyone in the region is 32F with ice or snow they are always at 35.6F or something.

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radar is showing snow/mix over the Spine now.  Not sure how reliable that is.  Went outside, and it's a fine rain. It appears to have some frozen nucleus-rain drops happening.  Doesn't look like we're gonna get a true changeover yet, though- however nice that would be. 

 

edit: just looked like the rain/drop size picked up outside.  Went out to check- nope, it's wet flakes mixing in moreso than 5 minutes ago.  Hope this holds.

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radar is showing snow/mix over the Spine now.  Not sure how reliable that is.  Went outside, and it's a fine rain. It appears to have some frozen nucleus-rain drops happening.  Doesn't look like we're gonna get a true changeover yet, though- however nice that would be. 

 

edit: just looked like the rain/drop size picked up outside.  Went out to check- nope, it's wet flakes mixing in moreso than 5 minutes ago.  Hope this holds.

 

Definitely changed to snow at the mountain.

 

SLK changed over to +SN with visibility of 1/4 mile.

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Out for a few errands just now- still rain in Waterbury/89 (420') while it's snowing pretty steadily starting about half way up the hill (~800ft).  Smuggs webcam is showing the upper mountain base getting (what appears to be) pasted at the moment.  Could be worse.

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What elevation are you at over there on the other side of the valley?

1300'.  Changeover to mostly snow is around 800' over here.

 

edit: A few stars are showing.  I'd like to pick up a wet inch or two here, but it may not be in the cards.  The spine will probably provide better than here.

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It looks like opportunities for snow return this evening with the cold frontal passage associated with this event.

 

all snow here now.  a slushy dusting.

 

Yeah, I wasn’t sure what time things were supposed to switch back, but there was already snow mixing in with the precipitation down here in Waterbury at 500’ when I arrived around 6:00 P.M.  Our point forecast indicates that there’s the potential for a bit of accumulation tonight as well.

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No change in snow depth today at the Stake... and hey, they came in with the same 2.0" I measured!  The can captures wet snow or light wind snows well.  Stayed below freezing all day on the mountain; even at mid-elevations based on Stowe's sensors.  Base area got to 34-35F briefly, and already back to freezing.  No damage to speak of aside from the snow surface condition...pack didn't change except settle a bit, but the two inches that fell last night at 1,500ft pretty much washed out the rain this afternoon for a zero sum change. 

 

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
535 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW
24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.42 29 22 29 2.0 59

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Niether the long range GFS or Euro are encouraging for good snows in their runs. Suppression depression and the same story with dry and cold.

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You should let Hoch or Hoff know that the vortex RWIS page is messed up. The locations don't correspond with the correct obs.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_nh_rwis.cgi?id=all

If you view the RWIS station data on mesowest or WU you'll see what I mean. Also, Canterbury still reads too warm with their T/Td, but that's been happening for years. I told them awhile back and they said it checked fine. I know it's BS though because it used to run neck and neck with my station temp wise and now it's always 3-4F warmer. When everyone in the region is 32F with ice or snow they are always at 35.6F or something.

Just saw this. I'll try to let them know If I remember.

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Niether the long range GFS or Euro are encouraging for good snows in their runs. Suppression depression and the same story with dry and cold.

Doesn't seem all that surprising given how january rained then we turned cold and dry toward the end of the month. After this mini torch it would be nice to get a 4-6" refresher.

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Niether the long range GFS or Euro are encouraging for good snows in their runs. Suppression depression and the same story with dry and cold.

 

I'm no met, but the incoming cold doesn't look as impressive on the models as it did a few days ago.  Maybe that translates into better storm opportunities earlier than expected down the road a bit. Agree though, it still looks too suppressed through most of next week.  I hold little hope for the mid-week system up here.

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Ended up with a solid 0.5" of ice on the mountain above 2,000ft... never went above freezing yesterday and capped off with a heavy freezing rain thunderstorm. 

 

1796631_10101815217621200_447538764_n.jp

 

A larger view... you can see the elevation dependence of the ice with elevations above 1,800-2,000ft seeing ice and below that not seeing much of any ice.

 

IMG_0789_edited-2.jpg

 

Ended up with a pretty good ice storm as you can see by the trees behind the skier...solid half inch of ice, if not a little more up at 3,000ft+.

 

IMG_0791_edited-2.jpg

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Only measured 0.18" water from yesterday's event, with 0.4" snow at the start.  I think the stripe of precip which gave thunder to S.Maine split/bypassed my area - fine with me, even with today's warmth I'll have 27" snowpack remaining.  Beautiful day on the ice, though it got windy when the aft PC arrived - could see snow in the air but only virga.  Fish didn't cooperate, so I drilled 5 holes thru 25" ice (with my 50+ yr old hand auger) just for exercise.  Got plenty of that anyway, as every other step broke thru into 8" slush under the snow surface.

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A photo of the Mansfield summit today... if you look closely you can see the snow blowing off the summit.  Strong westerly winds were producing a visible plume most of the day here on the east side.

 

IMG_0785_edited-2.jpg

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There's definitely a nicely-defined ice zone behind my spot here on the Worcester Range right around that 1800' elevation (estimate).  Not much of any accumulations from last night's changeover.  The snowpack in the yard is definitely consolidated with a crust.  But it's still pretty deep and thick out there- in the ballpark of 12-16".

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Similar here. Upper elevation got iced. Natural ungroomed trails were treacherous. Ventured into the woods. They were better. More of light breakable crust with some snow on top. Still skied in survival mode.

Down low was better today. Soft snow.

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Not bad.  The forecast for the next ~5 days shows some accumulating snow potential in a nickel/dime type pattern, with on-and-off chances throughout the week.  Shortwaves starting tonight, then again Weds, and again Thursday bring the chance of additional snow.

 

 

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT
DEEP SO WHILE I THINK IT`LL BE SNOWING ON THE SUMMITS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
EXPECT RATIOS TO BE PRETTY HIGH THOUGH AND WE SHOULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET OF 1-3" ACROSS THE DACKS AND 3-6"
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT OVER THE 30-HR PERIOD.

FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGLY UNBLOCKED
FLOW SO FOR THE GREENS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ON
EAST SIDE OF THE RANGE. SUMMIT SNOWS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. LITTLE
IF NOTHING IN THE VALLEYS.

 

Edit: a quick point and click shows 3-6" around Smuggler's Notch, while the Jay Peak area has a healthy 4-8"+ through tomorrow night.  

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