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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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BTV update:

AS OF 610 PM EST THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MAJOR SNOW STORM TO AFFECT THE

NORTH COUNTRY.

986-MB LOW NOW OFFSHORE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY WILL PROGRESS

NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO

THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO SUB-980-MB. THIS IS A VERY

FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR OUR REGION.

INITIAL AREA OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION SNOW DROPPED GENERALLY 2-6" OF SNOW

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND HEAVIER BAND WITHIN IT IS

CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...NOW

COMING INTO THE BURLINGTON AREA. IN GENERAL THIS BAND HAS BEEN

WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE. BEHIND BAND...MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO MUCH

OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MASSACHUSETTS. THIS WILL

CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND

EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY AND MAY EVEN SEE

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE

DECREASES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR DOES THIS COME NORTHWEST BEFORE

BAND PIVOTS AND DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

AS LOW INTENSIFIES AND MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE

REGION...EXPECTING A VERY INTENSE DEFORMATION BAND TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE PA/NJ/NY AREA AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS IS

WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND

VERMONT...GENERALLY 06Z-15Z. SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 2" PER

HOUR. EXACT POSITION OF THIS BAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT BOTH

LOCAL AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE

NORTH COUNTRY. LOCAL MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE

GREATEST RATES MAY AFFECT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES

WITH HIGHLY BLOCKED LOW LEVEL FLOW (LOCAL WRF FROUDE NUMBERS ARE

WELL BELOW 0.5 THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL 15Z...REMAINING BELOW 1

UNTIL 18Z). THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND

NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KNOTS. WEAK VEERING PROFILE ALSO

EVIDENT AT KBTV SOUNDING. SOUNDINGS ARE EVEN INDICATING THE

PRESENCE OF SOME ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE

SNOWFALL RATES.

SNOW TOTALS OF 10 - 16 INCHES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR VERMONT AND

NORTHEASTERN VERMONT...WITH 4 - 8 INCHES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE

VALLEY.

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A few parachutes here too but not dramatically heavy rates. As that discussion said it definitely died out a bit, but still building up a little.

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That's a nice AFD from BTV. I agree with the blocked flow targeting the CPV and western slopes if the deform band sets up overhead. Should be interesting tomorrow morning.

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how do you feel about the overnight snow in your area?

It's iffy. There's a warm layer around 800mb as it moves in (+1 to +2C). If we can wipe that out quickly it may get interesting. Either way it should be pretty dynamic. I'm expecting TSPLGS transitioning over to TSSN at times. There's quite a bit of lightning in NJ right now.

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Dry slotted for the last 45 minutes or so. This is always when the panic sets in. What if it's actually done, OMG, I'm the one in the screw zone this time etc.. And to add to it, I have a hard time trusting radar over here so I don't even get the thrill of saying "ooh, look at that band about to hit me".

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Looks NNY is getting it good right now. Big ol' dry slot right up the CT River Valley.

BTW, I am officially starting to annoy myself with my hand wringing.

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It's iffy. There's a warm layer around 800mb as it moves in (+1 to +2C). If we can wipe that out quickly it may get interesting. Either way it should be pretty dynamic. I'm expecting TSPLGS transitioning over to TSSN at times. There's quite a bit of lightning in NJ right now.

my dad was telling me that its freezing drizzle and light sleet at his house in Tooky right now, so it must be pretty warm upstairs

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.13” L.E.

 

We had 1.6” of snow through 6:00 P.M., and another inch or so since then, but the snowfall has slowed somewhat at this point.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.3

Snow Density: 8.1% H2O

Temperature: 13.3 F

Sky: Snow (1-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

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Looks NNY is getting it good right now. Big ol' dry slot right up the CT River Valley.

BTW, I am officially starting to annoy myself with my hand wringing.

It is kind of like trying to not get excited about the new girl. Finally you start going out and just after you start thinking she may be the one, she goes out to Burlington with some other guy and you stay in and have old Mac and cheese from the microwave.

I'm going to bed and guess that I will wake up to about a new inch or so.

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As others, tappering off now after an excellent band during the late afternoon.  Even sleet pellets involved in the mix now--the nerve!

 

Further west is a surprise.

 

5.3"

 

25F, light snow/pellets.

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Looks NNY is getting it good right now. Big ol' dry slot right up the CT River Valley.

BTW, I am officially starting to annoy myself with my hand wringing.

 

This was well modeled...there was a 3-6 hour period where a lot of models didn't have much measurable. 

 

The precip down in NJ right now will be our finale and the bulk of this storm.  Hopefully it rips as we will need to get some good snow accumulations out of that.

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It is kind of like trying to not get excited about the new girl. Finally you start going out and just after you start thinking she may be the one, she goes out to Burlington with some other guy and you stay in and have old Mac and cheese from the microwave.

I'm going to bed and guess that I will wake up to about a new inch or so.

How did you get a hold of my high school diary?

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We have some sleet mixing in here in Winooski. That is very worrysome.

 

This is mentioned in the updated zone forecasts. Shouldn't be a big issue overnight, though. Latest from BTV:

AS OF 918 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS MAJORWINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE. WATER VAPOR AND INFRAREDSATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTATIONS ARE INDICATIVE OF EXPLOSIVEDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEW YORK AND DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. INADDITION NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVEDFROM PHILADELPHIA UP TO NEW YORK. LOW HAS INTENSIFIED TO 983-MBAND IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY AS OF 9 PM. STILLEXPECT LOW TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERNMASSACHUSETTS AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE STRENGTHENING TOAROUND 975-MB. ALL LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN INTENSEDEFORMATION BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2" PER HOUR TOMOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM.DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ELEVATED CAPE NOTED IN FORECASTSOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TONIGHT ANDEARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE RATES WILL MAKE FOR AN EXTREMELYHAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES DONETO STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS...10 - 16 INCHES STILL ON TRACK FORNORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH 5 - 9 INCHES IN THE SAINTLAWRENCE VALLEY.

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NAM semi-screws you VT guys...deformation creams the capital district of NY up through GFL.

 

Yeah, I can see the difference from the 18z run.  Oh well.  If I do as well as last week's SWFE (8") I'll be more than satisfied.

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