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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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It's all about where that backside/deform sets up.  I'm feeling Berks-central NH & into western ME but we'll see...

 

It's going to snow and I reckon that's something we can all smile about.  

 

:snowing:

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Are we seeing the NAM and GFS in agreement on the backside deform/baroclinic leaf for Friday AM?  Looks like both are showing a slug of moisture around 7AM.  We'd be gettting smoked right around rush hour IF it confirms. 

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Are we seeing the NAM and GFS in agreement on the backside deform/baroclinic leaf for Friday AM?  Looks like both are showing a slug of moisture around 7AM.  We'd be gettting smoked right around rush hour IF it confirms. 

 

The 12z NAM is like a 6-hour panel out of the real Valentine's Day storm in 2007.  We had a heck of a lot more precip prior and after the band in that storm, but if correct, this could rival those rates briefly.  This is the same signal that V-Day '07 had at its peak with 6-hour QPF in the 0.5-1.0" range. 

 

 

Latest SREF ensemble is putting us in the sweet spot for the deformation.  Most of these members are big hits, and this is only a 3-hour snapshot.

 

f24.gif

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AWT VT people. AWT.

It was touch and go there yesterday for a bit...you could feel it tugging east into ORH/NH. Surprised it came back west. Now it needs to stop, if it's NW of progged it could be ADKs down to ALB lol.

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just poked my head out the window.  We actually have some flakes coming down here at 1300'.  didn't expect that.  Camel's Hump and Sugarbush are dissapearing from view.  Hopefully don't see them again until Sunday.

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No flakes yet here in Montpelier.  Still a bit leery of the congrats and AWTs being thrown our way.  In some years I wouldn't give it a second thought but there are years like this that seem to be difficult to get good snows (relative to NNE standards).  Would love to experience 6" hour rates as reported in NJ. 

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Lake Champlain is "99% frozen over"

http://www.wcax.com/story/24714596/report-lake-champlain-99-percent-frozen

 

BURLINGTON, Vt. (AP) - The National Weather Service in Vermont is estimating that Lake Champlain is 99 percent frozen over.

National Weather Service meteorologist Andrew Loconto says it's the most ice on the lake since 2007, the last time the lake is believed to have frozen over completely.

A century ago the lake would routinely freeze over during the winter. In the 1990s it froze completely only three times.

 

 

post-1533-0-02233600-1392312227_thumb.jp

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It was touch and go there yesterday for a bit...you could feel it tugging east into ORH/NH. Surprised it came back west. Now it needs to stop, if it's NW of progged it could be ADKs down to ALB lol.

We are going to get leveled per 12z Euro. Widespread 1.25" qpf

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An encouraging sign: HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO
PERIODS OF FORECAST BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TONIGHT MADE NEED
TO BE UPPED A FEW INCHES...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHERN NY. WILL WAIT FOR REST OF GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

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It was tough to argue with a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the GOM. It's even tougher to argue with a 975 mb low going over Boston and heading up the coast of Maine. Just about an ideal track for most of VT.

 

We are golden.

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We are going to get leveled per 12z Euro. Widespread 1.25" qpf

Modeling seems to signify a death band hanging nearly north to south for many hours tomorrow morning. Wherever that sets up and maximizes will see amounts in excess of forecasted ranges. Latest models indicate that's probably going to set up somewhere between BTV-RUT and 1V4-LEB.

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It was tough to argue with a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the GOM. It's even tougher to argue with a 975 mb low going over Boston and heading up the coast of Maine. Just about an ideal track for most of VT.

We are golden.

Reading this from you, I am now fully invested.

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Yeah I am backing off my worried stance some. We should begin with the WAA light snow soon enough here.

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It was touch and go there yesterday for a bit...you could feel it tugging east into ORH/NH. Surprised it came back west. Now it needs to stop, if it's NW of progged it could be ADKs down to ALB lol.

Yee of little faith!

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It was tough to argue with a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the GOM. It's even tougher to argue with a 975 mb low going over Boston and heading up the coast of Maine. Just about an ideal track for most of VT.

We are golden.

Agreed...climo speaking this is just a classic track. It's why I always say in the main threads that for up here, we want that low sitting in Boston Harbor.

I threw caution to the wind and went 10-18" for a mountain ops forecast this morning for Mansfield.

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Yeah I am backing off my worried stance some. We should begin with the WAA light snow soon enough here.

CPV convergence and blocked flow tomorrow morning...you will do great.

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CPV convergence and blocked flow tomorrow morning...you will do great.

 

Yeah I am definitely going to lose sleep tonight :) Euro paints a 12z crushing (or at least in the period of 6z-12z),

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23.1F  moderate snow  vis 3/8  about 2" of snow but winds are starting to howl up here on the hill.  Looking forward to the "deathband" which is moving in shortly.  Will try to get a good one hour snow total as we enter the band.

 

Where does the Euro show the deformation band setting up?  Looks to be NW of here.  These bands look to move into E VT and then come to a halt.   Fun couple of hours ahead.

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Wow BTV not holding back on the Mansfield point and click forecast, lol.

This afternoon...Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight...Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Friday...Snow. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

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