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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Hot off the presses!:

 

12FEB14D.jpg

 

 

 

 

That’s certainly a bump from the previous map; there’s a lot more 10-14” fuchsia on the map now.  Winter Storm Warnings have pushed well west on the updated advisories map:

 

12FEB14C.jpg

 

I also see back to back heavy snow icons on our point forecast as well, which doesn’t happen every day.

 

12FEB14E.jpg

 

The current point forecast snowfall numbers for our location sum to 8-14”, which could make for the largest event of the season so far if the upper half of that range was to verify.

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Still not sold on this up here. I think BTV is too high.

Thinking 6-10" for many in northern VT with 4-6"/ 5-8" type deal in the CPV.

I'm with ya 100%. We've been hearing for days congrats and jackpot but this one hasn't sat well with me for some reason.

I think it's because we miss the WCB band and WAA precip and are relying almost entirely on the CCB backside deformation. If that goes east, even like 30 miles into NH, the VT totals drop very rapidly.

I hate that all the ensembles, including the SREFS, have members that still only deliver like 0.1-0.25" QPF in NVT, while others have 1+ inch. The mean values look decent, but the individual members show that this storm either happens or it doesn't for us. All or nothing type look...like 2-5" or 8-16" with not much middle ground.

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For the record I went 6-12" at the mountain...larger range than I like to give but with this one I think a larger range is the way to go. Going to be a nail biter though.

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I'm with ya 100%. We've been hearing for days congrats and jackpot but this one hasn't sat well with me for some reason.

I think it's because we miss the WCB band and WAA precip and are relying almost entirely on the CCB backside deformation. If that goes east, even like 30 miles into NH, the VT totals drop very rapidly.

I hate that all the ensembles, including the SREFS, have members that still only deliver like 0.1-0.25" QPF in NVT, while others have 1+ inch. The mean values look decent, but the individual members show that this storm either happens or it doesn't for us. All or nothing type look...like 2-5" or 8-16" with not much middle ground.

I know. Hence my cautious approach. I could see something where from RUT-MPV-1V4 gets some banding while BTV smokes subsidence.

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I know. Hence my cautious approach. I could see something where from RUT-MPV-1V4 gets some banding while BTV smokes subsidence.

 

You can see it in the MOS snow numbers... the NAM has 8 and then 1 for RUT-MPV-1V4, while for BTV it has 4 and then 1.  

 

However, the GFS MOS at 18z is showing BTV/MVL with the highest numbers of 8 and 2, with the others 8 and 1, lol.  

 

The NAM snow numbers though make sense for this event with the RUT-MPV-1V4 area favored in VT for banding.

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You can see it in the MOS snow numbers... the NAM has 8 and then 1 for RUT-MPV-1V4, while for BTV it has 4 and then 1.

However, the GFS MOS at 18z is showing BTV/MVL with the highest numbers of 8 and 2, with the others 8 and 1, lol.

The NAM snow numbers though make sense for this event with the RUT-MPV-1V4 area favored in VT for banding.

I don't think this will be a total bust, but I could see NW VT and maybe along the international border busting pretty bad with current BTV forecasts.

Then again models could hold serve tonight and we get smoked. My guy says one final tick east is in order.

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I don't think this will be a total bust, but I could see NW VT and maybe along the international border busting pretty bad with current BTV forecasts.

Then again models could hold serve tonight and we get smoked. My guy says one final tick east is in order.

 

Agreed.  I feel like for whatever reason (convection maybe?) these lows have a tendency to jump a few miles east at the last minute, or the models over-do the amount of bombogensis the low is forecast to undergo.  It just seems like models are often too strong with lows, rather than the other way around (low being stronger than modeled).  

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My guy says one final tick east is in order.

Is it you gut telling you that or is that guy who sells early versions of the Euro hanging out in the Packing House parking lot again? If he's back, don't go that route man it ain't worth it. His stuff just isn't right!

Oh my call for here is tentatively 1- 18 inches but I am leaning toward 4-5 if pressed.

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We'll have to see if the track can get narrowed down further because a slight shift means everything, but its tough to argue against a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the Gulf of Maine.

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Looking for a little local knowledge. My Daughter is supposed to make the trip from Lyndonville to Castine Maine Friday , any chance of that happening? I wouldn't think so given the warnings but hey I am a Southerner what do I know...

 

Vt:
* Accumulations... 10 to 16 inches of snow.

 

Maine:

 

"snow accumulation of 8 to 14 inches... along
with around one quarter of an inch of ice. The higher end of
the snowfall range is expected in southern Piscataquis County".

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We'll have to see if the track can get narrowed down further because a slight shift means everything, but its tough to argue against a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the Gulf of Maine.

 

Yeah I'm not envious of BTV forecasters right now.  Good luck.  I would expect a decrease in snowfall amounts anyway overnight...daytime forecaster has seemed more bullish the past couple days than the mid-shift forecaster, haha.

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Looking for a little local knowledge. My Daughter is supposed to make the trip from Lyndonville to Castine Maine Friday , any chance of that happening? I wouldn't think so given the warnings but hey I am a Southerner what do I know...

Vt:

* Accumulations... 10 to 16 inches of snow.

Maine:

"snow accumulation of 8 to 14 inches... along

with around one quarter of an inch of ice. The higher end of

the snowfall range is expected in southern Piscataquis County".

I wouldn't attempt that drive in the morning, but probably would in the evening.

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Yeah I'm not envious of BTV forecasters right now.  Good luck.  I would expect a decrease in snowfall amounts anyway overnight...daytime forecaster has seemed more bullish the past couple days than the mid-shift forecaster, haha.

 

Well I think you know who that was...  ;) haha

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Well I think you know who that was... ;) haha

Ha I love his enthusiasm though. I've gotten pretty good at guessing who it is just based on what I see on model data and how the forecast and AFD comes out. Hopefully he is skiing on Friday and the forecast works out!

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so... basically nobody agrees with anybody on this.  well, that's a good sign of something fun.  Can we settle on 4-6" of good synoptic snow as a base line? 

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SREF's still pretty juicy...most members are big hits.  Not that it means much, they've been horrific this season.  But inside of 48 hours you'd hope they have some sort of an idea.

 

f78.gif

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The low qpf is troublesome, for sure. But I'm 30 miles north of NYC inland in the Hudson valley, and I'm forecast to mix tomorrow, which is usually a good sign for the north country. Should be fun.

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the wind has been kicking up here for the first time in days pretty steadily.  we'll see what happens.

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BTV should be in good shape for 6"+. Especially since we've got N/NW winds Thurs Night and early Fri AM.

 

Agreed... Champlain Valley convergence (and maybe even some less-common upslope in the NE Adirondacks with NEly winds just off the deck.  These can lead to some really blocked flow type, low level snows, as I know you are aware haha.

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Agreed... Champlain Valley convergence (and maybe even some less-common upslope in the NE Adirondacks with NEly winds just off the deck.  These can lead to some really blocked flow type, low level snows, as I know you are aware haha.

 

WRF models coming on over. I like. 

 

Probably overdone on precip amounts, but it rakes Vermont Thurs Night in the deform band:

 

hrw-arw_eus_048_precip_p48.gif

hrw-arw_eus_033_sim_radar.gif

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There’s no apparent change in the BTV NWS advisories map from yesterday, as Winter Storm Warnings still blanket the area westward out to the central part of Northern New York, where Winter Weather Advisories are present.  There really aren’t a lot of substantive changes in the latest storm total snowfall forecast map either, there’s that general area of 10-14” fuchsia on the map that covers the central and southern portions of Vermont:

 

13FEB14A.jpg

 

Our point forecast has taken a slight bump to 8-15”, with the hourly point forecast graph showing 11.4” through tomorrow evening, but it’s quite similar to yesterday, so the BTV NWS seems pretty stable in their thoughts.

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Yeah after reviewing a little more I think 6-8" is certainly doable here and we will see if we can score on any blocked flow on the backside. Finally it almost time to see what happens after watching this for so long.

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8am  15.4F  light snow grains have started.   Looks like the heaviest front end stuff will be east of Central NH and the backside will be what brings much of the snow to C/NNE.  Where that band sets up will be so important, VT or NH?

 

Brian, since you live in my area maybe you can answer this.  Looking at the back part of the storm how can we get such heavy snow amounts with such strong northerly downslope flow with the Whites just to the north?  I would think we would be shadowed.  Yesterday you were thinking 8-12" in our area, what are your thoughts with these crazy backside amounts?

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