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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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I agree mostly with your forecast but think it'll be more latitude oriented...ie like SLK may get the same as 1V4. With the exception of the northern CPV which should see dry air at the SFC funnel down in light northerly flow. The track looks a little different than the one earlier in the season that sort of took a more SW-NE line.

Aren't all the places I mentioned latitude oriented? Lol I meant to do it that way.

 

Gun to weenie I'd say 6" will be a common number for most of the VT posters on here, with maybe a bit more down mreaves' and allenson's way. 

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Aren't all the places I mentioned latitude oriented? Lol I meant to do it that way.

Oh lol, maybe my geography is off. I guess they are haha. I don't know why I think 1V4 is so far north and MPV south. I read that as like a bubble into NE VT and NNH. I usually think of BTV and 1V4 on the same latitude.

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I'm an idiot, haha. Just looked at it on a map and had misread your original post...St Albans to Newport and Jackman is dead on. Not sure why I read that as BTV-Newport... :lol:

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I'm an idiot, haha. Just looked at it on a map and had misread your original post...St Albans to Newport and Jackman is dead on. Not sure why I read that as BTV-Newport... :lol:

Hahaha no worries. Enjoy the snow and pray QPF verifies. Snow growth/ratios look solid with DGZ within the area of best lift, especially mid morning through afternoon with the deform banding. 

 

In a perfect model world, I could envision 0.60" QPF with 15:1 ratios, or 9". God knows that won't happen.

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Aren't all the places I mentioned latitude oriented? Lol I meant to do it that way.

 

Gun to weenie I'd say 6" will be a common number for most of the VT posters on here, with maybe a bit more down mreaves' and allenson's way.

I fully endorse this post.  :sled:

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2.5" so far....

Eyeballed about the same this morning, maybe a little less.  Didn't have time to get out the ruler and do a real measurement.

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.15” L.E.

 

I did a double take when I got the results of this morning’s liquid analysis from the snow – the 1.1 inches contained 0.15” of liquid, so it came in at 13.6% H2O.  It’s quite dry snow with temperatures around 20 F, but the flakes falling have been pretty small.  This morning’s snow was the total antithesis of yesterday’s ultra fluff, and the current stuff falling is a great type of snow to put down first in a storm.  If Mother Nature can keep that up it will at least be a start in substantiating the mountain snowpack in a much needed way.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.3

Snow Density: 13.6% H2O

Temperature: 19.9 F

Sky: Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

 

I’ve got the J&E Productions Web Cam running for anyone monitoring valley snowfall accumulations in this area, and I’ll let the full storm accumulate there undisturbed.  It looks like something in the 2-inch range for total accumulation as of ~8:00 A.M.:

 

05FEB14A.jpg

 

I looked at the latest projected accumulations map from the BTV NWS – there’s a very slight shift southward in the accumulations, but I actually had to toggle it back and forth with the previous map to pick it up because it’s so subtle.  So there’s little change in the map, but the latest version is below for archival purposes:

 

05FEB14B.jpg

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Definitely some better flakes out there now as opposed to the sugar early on. I will measure again in a little while.

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We are at 3" as well,  don't know if we will be able to pull a 6 out of this or not but we will see.

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Kind a funny weather story. When I was out west last week, one morning I noticed a beautiful coat of of what I believed to be with my limited knowledge, hoar frost on the snow surface. I was standing around with the guide and I commented to him about the crystals, and he says to me, "it's not hoar frost, it's surface hoar. We don't call it hoar frost anymore. Haven't heard that in years."

Who knew?

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We are at 3" as well,  don't know if we will be able to pull a 6 out of this or not but we will see.

You should...lots of moisture to our west back into Michigan that needs to come through. Going for an additional 3-5" in the BTV area for VTrans today.

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Totals that I just sent out for VTrans:

 

DDH-VSF: 10-14"

RUT-LEB: 7-12"

BTV-MPV-1V4: 6-9"

Along the Canadian border: 4-8"

 

Everything is going smoothly. RPM hints at light to moderate snows through 3z. Thats impressive.

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Very nice band in northern NY will pivot SE into northern VT this afternoon. Nice.

 

That could really help out BTV and Plattsburgh. 

 

Best snow growth of the day starting now as aloft begins to warm to favorable ice crystal growth temps.

post-1818-0-30797400-1391614561_thumb.pn

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Very unimpressive storm here so far.  About 3 1/2"  for the past 6 hours its been snowing. Surprised it is as much as it is.  Mostly snow grains or very small flakes and sky is very bright.

i agree, i'm at my dads in contoocook, and this is pretty meh so far

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Very unimpressive storm here so far.  About 3 1/2"  for the past 6 hours its been snowing. Surprised it is as much as it is.  Mostly snow grains or very small flakes and sky is very bright.

Subsidence between WAA thump and deform banding to the north. Experiencing that here now...should fill in shortly.

 

3.7" as of 11am.

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Subsidence between WAA thump and deform banding to the north. Experiencing that here now...should fill in shortly.

 

3.7" as of 11am.

Hope so. Just about completely shut off here at the moment.

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I'm an idiot, haha. Just looked at it on a map and had misread your original post...St Albans to Newport and Jackman is dead on. Not sure why I read that as BTV-Newport... :lol:

 

Nitpick: Maybe Rangeley, but Jackman's nearly 2/3 of a degree latitude north of the VT-Canada border.

 

Steady fall of tiny flakes here in AUGF.  Visibility (3/8 mile) suggests moderate but accum (1/4"/hr at best) says light.  Might have 2" new here; saw an AUG obs of 2" at 8:47, but it was no more than half that here at that time.  Snow started at my home about 5A, and by 7 we'd had 0.3" of 5:1 cornmeal.  Unless we get some dendrites, the home front may not reach the 4-8" forecast.

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