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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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That's what I was figuring.  We need a solid, dense foot+ down in the valleys.  Hopefully that's not too far off.

 

This webcam is at about 1300' on the west slopes:

2elv51z.jpg

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BTV issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 4-6" of snow from here on northward... I'm still thinking 2-4".

NYZ026>031-034-VTZ002>004-006-007-016-010900-/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0004.140201T1600Z-140202T1600Z/NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD330 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AMSATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...NORTHERN  ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK...AND NORTHERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE  NORTHEAST KINGDOM.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY  SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM THE WEST  EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO VERMONT  SATURDAY MID-AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY  MORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES  DUE TO SNOWFALL.

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BTV pretty aggressive this early for mid-week system and the 12z Euro looks nice.  Still aways out though, so obviously not a lock. If it was a cutter, I'd bet good money it would stay right where it was though...lol.

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PF/J.Spin-

 

do you guys have any beta on current depths on the east and west slopes around 1500'-2500'? I was thinking about if/when to head to some backcountry spots for some hiking and turns- but I've got a feeling that it'll be pretty rough on the runout and I'm not about to trash new skis.

 

Ono, I can only speak for ~2,000’ and above up at Bolton (western slopes), but I actually just did a backcountry tour on Sunday and it was fine.  There were tons of people out all over the network (which just had $40,000 of maintenance/improvement in the off season), and up around the 2,500’ mark and above there were tracks on some fairly steep lines like A1A, JJ’s, and Big Blue, and the coverage certainly looked sufficient.  My full report is at the link below:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2014/01/26/bolton-valley-backcountry-nordic-alpine-vt-26jan2014/

 

I’m sure there are some aspects and glades that are still a bit too lean, but there was plenty of snow for just about all the moderate angle stuff (and the powder was actually too deep/dense for some of the lowest angle stuff).  Here’s a shot I took of the Cup Runneth Over glade, which is down around 2,200’:

 

26JAN14B.jpg

 

You can see that it’s still a bit on the lean side with that brush sticking out, but that’s an intermediate pitch and it was certainly ready for skiing – I’d recommend taking it conservative down at that elevation of course until you’ve checked it out to make sure there were no surprises.  I’d say that stuff too far below 2,000’ certainly isn’t ready yet (so obviously no runs down into the lower valleys) but higher elevation stuff in that area is definitely ready for exploration.  Sunday was great though; it was certainly inspiring enough that I’m thinking of going back again this weekend over lift-served turns depending on how the snow/mix/etc. falls.

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ehyme4et.jpg

Out in BTV with the misses tonight. Nice weather for January.

Looks like Meso models are the way to go for tomorrow night.

3-6" in the NEK sounds good. 1-3" elsewhere.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Ono, I can only speak for ~2,000’ and above up at Bolton (western slopes), but I actually just did a backcountry tour on Sunday and it was fine.  There were tons of people out all over the network (which just had $40,000 of maintenance/improvement in the off season), and up around the 2,500’ mark and above there were tracks on some fairly steep lines like A1A, JJ’s, and Big Blue, and the coverage certainly looked sufficient.  My full report is at the link below:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2014/01/26/bolton-valley-backcountry-nordic-alpine-vt-26jan2014/

 

I’m sure there are some aspects and glades that are still a bit too lean, but there was plenty of snow for just about all the moderate angle stuff (and the powder was actually too deep/dense for some of the lowest angle stuff).  Here’s a shot I took of the Cup Runneth Over glade, which is down around 2,200’:

 

 

 

You can see that it’s still a bit on the lean side with that brush sticking out, but that’s an intermediate pitch and it was certainly ready for skiing – I’d recommend taking it conservative down at that elevation of course until you’ve checked it out to make sure there were no surprises.  I’d say that stuff too far below 2,000’ certainly isn’t ready yet (so obviously no runs down into the lower valleys) but higher elevation stuff in that area is definitely ready for exploration.  Sunday was great though; it was certainly inspiring enough that I’m thinking of going back again this weekend over lift-served turns depending on how the snow/mix/etc. falls.

 

Interesting... we were ducking into some woods today with what looked like similar snowpack and certainly didn't feel confident about it at all.  Granted the lower angle stuff like the Chapel Woods area at Mansfield are skiable, but anything with a moderate pitch or more seems really shady right now.  I guess it also depends on the amount of maintenance done, and if Bolton spends some good money clearing their backcountry network I could see that. 

 

The stake is still only at 36", which is still in the "ski very conservatively" range or "stay out" range for a lot of Mansfield's woods.  You can traverse back and forth through the woods, with a couple turns and then stop and assess, but you certainly can't "ski" them with aggression and fluid-ness that you can when the stake gets to like 50-60". 

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Our below zero minima streak ended yesterday morning at +14 but our below freezing streak is still alive.  Topped out right at 32 yesterday.

 

Looks pretty meh around here for tonight but all eyes on mid-week now....

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Interesting... we were ducking into some woods today with what looked like similar snowpack and certainly didn't feel confident about it at all.  Granted the lower angle stuff like the Chapel Woods area at Mansfield are skiable, but anything with a moderate pitch or more seems really shady right now.  I guess it also depends on the amount of maintenance done, and if Bolton spends some good money clearing their backcountry network I could see that.

 

The stake is still only at 36", which is still in the "ski very conservatively" range or "stay out" range for a lot of Mansfield's woods.  You can traverse back and forth through the woods, with a couple turns and then stop and assess, but you certainly can't "ski" them with aggression and fluid-ness that you can when the stake gets to like 50-60".

 

A lot of Mansfield’s woods are pretty aggressive, so I’d say they need a bit more coverage than Bolton’s BC network.  So, just as Chapel Woods type of terrain is skiable, similar angle terrain on Bolton’s BC network is more than ready.  And I think with the good maintenance, low traffic (not necessarily much of a factor yet this season), and protection from winds, the moderate angle stuff is a bit more approachable there.  I went to the Ski Conditions section at Friends of Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry to check on what others have been saying, and I think the report from Derek below on Sunday’s conditions is generally in line with what I saw.  Glades that were buff were described as “OK” (and as long as you know the terrain well, that’s going to be in play), but steeper stuff is not there yet:

 

“Last Sunday Bryant, Gardner’s, North Slope, Heavenly, Birch were all skiing pretty well. Some of the very buff off-piste was OK. Trouble is knowing what’s very buff under that +/-6″ of powder. Traven skied down Georges Gorge and characterized that as a mistake. Basically anything downhill that was steep &/or fast was risky.”

 

Actually, if you scroll down a bit in the conditions reports, you can see that outings even back on the 19th and 20th of the month were yielding some turns.  Things were certainly more marginal then, but that was just when the snowpack was just starting to pick up from that month-long lull, and we’ve had some decent accumulations in the past 10 days even if there haven’t been any huge synoptic storms.

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Temp crept up to 33 yesterday, back down to about 7 this morning. January avg was 10.2 (22.2/0.2) which was 3F below avg, and it featured 12 days at least 10F below avg and 8 at least 10F above. I don't think I've ever recorded another month with 20 days of 10+ departures. There were ten days with 15+ departures (5 and 5) along with 5 with 20+ (4 cold, one mild.)

The 5.1" snow total is my lowest for January here, and 2nd lowest (3.6" in Gardiner, 1992) since we moved to Maine on 1/23/73. Even that 9-day "month" had more. The 3.77" precip was 33% above my avg. Hard to get cold, wet, and non-snowy all together.

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The 5.1" snow total is my lowest for January here, and 2nd lowest (3.6" in Gardiner, 1992) since we moved to Maine on 1/23/73. Even that 9-day "month" had more. The 3.77" precip was 33% above my avg. Hard to get cold, wet, and non-snowy all together.

 

Yeah that cold/wet/no snow combo is very hard to come by, but we managed it too over here.

 

Those are some pretty somber snow stats, especially since you moved to Maine in 1973 so there's some period of record there.  This January is definitely one that NNE will hope to forget quickly, haha.

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Yeah that cold/wet/no snow combo is very hard to come by, but we managed it too over here.

 

Those are some pretty somber snow stats, especially since you moved to Maine in 1973 so there's some period of record there.  This January is definitely one that NNE will hope to forget quickly, haha.

 

It certainly has not been a good month, 10.4" here but 6.5" of that fell back on Jan 2nd

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It certainly has not been a good month, 10.4" here but 6.5" of that fell back on Jan 2nd

Yup...5.7" here since 1/3 with only 1 OK event.

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That's what I was figuring.  We need a solid, dense foot+ down in the valleys.  Hopefully that's not too far off.

 

It's bad. Really really bad below 2000ft. I'd say we need at least 18" - remember what's there isn't packed snow. It's rocks, dirt and ice in this amazing chunder mix. 

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Man, that S/W flow might really crush the ADK. I could see the High Peaks getting a good foot out of this event.  This is their kinda storm. They are high and prob. have about 3000ft of prominence to land towards the S/W. 

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Also, for tonight I like D-2" in the CPV, highest near the Int'l border, 1-3" near MPV, 2-4" in the southern spine, 6-10" northern spine (moreso Jay than Stowe), and 3-6" in the NEK.

 

Decent event for this winter. Still sitting at 42-44" totals in Lyndonville.

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Also, for tonight I like D-2" in the CPV, highest near the Int'l border, 1-3" near MPV, 2-4" in the southern spine, 6-10" northern spine (moreso Jay than Stowe), and 3-6" in the NEK.

 

Decent event for this winter. Still sitting at 42-44" totals in Lyndonville.

 

Its going to be a tough call here tonight... I still like 2-4" but there's some sneaky near 0C layers in there and best forcing is literally just north of this area.  Where like Jay Peak gets 6-8" while we get 1-2" of sleety snow.

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It's bad. Really really bad below 2000ft. I'd say we need at least 18" - remember what's there isn't packed snow. It's rocks, dirt and ice in this amazing chunder mix. 

 

Yeah the snowpack is like 10-12" of mostly recrystalized dry powder (like western settled snow) with a few inch base of rock hard ice and crap below 2,000ft.

 

I mean, we just did back-to-back months of 50% normal snowfall (even less this month), along with multiple rain events.  Winter will come along at some point, maybe its April-June this year?  lol.

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GYX going for Snow, 90% chance for Wed on my P+C

Love the confidence, I'm used to seeing 50% chance of snow showers 4 days out.

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Its going to be a tough call here tonight... I still like 2-4" but there's some sneaky near 0C layers in there and best forcing is literally just north of this area.  Where like Jay Peak gets 6-8" while we get 1-2" of sleety snow.

I could see that happening in the NEK too, like St. J gets 1-2" with poor snow growth and Newport into southern QC sees 4-8". Really tough call. Atleast frozen won't be an issue here tonight. Currently 35F here at 750ft with a wetbulb of 29F. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of lows tonight ~30F.

 

Per the 12z Euro...do my eyes deceive me?  Is that Wednesday system going to have the audacity to track too far south for us and we fringe?

Very possible. Thinking its a bit too far south though. I could a similar set up to 12/15 where the most falls in CNE and we get way less near the Int'l border. At least it'll snow.

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Per the 12z Euro...do my eyes deceive me?  Is that Wednesday system going to have the audacity to track too far south for us and we fringe?

 

 

Quite possible.  We have the snow shield in NNE this winter, and Murphy's Law will just take it from here, haha. 

 

As ADK was saying, the trough is really quite flat.  It could be just a progressive sheared system south of us.

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Yeah the snowpack is like 10-12" of mostly recrystalized dry powder (like western settled snow) with a few inch base of rock hard ice and crap below 2,000ft.

 

I mean, we just did back-to-back months of 50% normal snowfall (even less this month), along with multiple rain events.  Winter will come along at some point, maybe its April-June this year?  lol.

 

You watch your mouth. (lol)

 

Per the 12z Euro...do my eyes deceive me?  Is that Wednesday system going to have the audacity to track too far south for us and we fringe?

 

That would just be comical.

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Thanks for the responses, guys.  Yes, some snow is better than none.  I'd just like to see something to actually give my new blower a real workout this winter...lol.  The GFS still looked good, but it seems to be getting the cold shoulder in the event thread.  I guess folks are expecting it to follow the Euro lead (and the Canadian, it seems) in upcoming runs.

 

Bright side, of course, no p-type issues...but still...sigh...lol.

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LOL, increasingly looking like SNE will somehow manage to jackpot on the 2/5 system. Still a ways to go, but I don't like the trend.

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Looks like N greens could do quite well tonite. While everyone but adk seems focused on wed ...a nice 6-8 event could unfold for areas that "need" it. Pfreak u think 2-4 mid mtn ....this looks like a 6 incher

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