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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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New Map!

 

13FEB14C.jpg

 

 

 

 

It’s nice to see some of those 18-24” areas along the spine now, that was certainly a big bump from the last map.  Our point forecast has been bumped again, so now it’s in the 12-20” range, with 15.5” on the hourly weather forecast graph.

 

The advisories map is now wall to wall Winter Storm Warnings, reflecting increased accumulations off to the west:

 

13FEB14B.jpg

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It would be the LOL if this is pretty much it for C/S NH. I could see it end up as 2-3" more and then PL showers later.

That would put me at 7 or 8 inches.  We were expecting 8-12" yesterday.  Im wondering if the conveyor  belt of moisture down in E MA starts moving more NNW and NW as the storm moves north which would keep us in the QPF longer than if it stays further east

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Yeah that band is making good progress our way also. I wonder if we will pivot in time to avoid the dry slot, or will there be a temporary lull.

 

I think we dry slot for awhile...at least for me east.  Not much to our south atm.  BTV mentioned this in their afternoon discussion but said it should fill in and be short lived.

 

2" on the dot so far and coming down with big flakes. Won't call them dendrites because I don't want to start that controversy again! I don't have a good view to judge visibility but I suspect it's between 1/2 and 3/4 of a mile. The State is on a delayed opening for tomorrow.

 

Yeah, just into that band here now.  Much bigger flake size than earlier.  Just a delayed opening?  I thought for sure they'd just pack it in for tomorrow considering the forecast.  Suits me fine when the state closes...cuts down local traffic by 75%...lol

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BTV update:

AS OF 610 PM EST THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MAJOR SNOW STORM TO AFFECT THE

NORTH COUNTRY.

986-MB LOW NOW OFFSHORE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY WILL PROGRESS

NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO

THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO SUB-980-MB. THIS IS A VERY

FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR OUR REGION.

INITIAL AREA OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION SNOW DROPPED GENERALLY 2-6" OF SNOW

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND HEAVIER BAND WITHIN IT IS

CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...NOW

COMING INTO THE BURLINGTON AREA. IN GENERAL THIS BAND HAS BEEN

WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE. BEHIND BAND...MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO MUCH

OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MASSACHUSETTS. THIS WILL

CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND

EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY AND MAY EVEN SEE

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE

DECREASES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR DOES THIS COME NORTHWEST BEFORE

BAND PIVOTS AND DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

AS LOW INTENSIFIES AND MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE

REGION...EXPECTING A VERY INTENSE DEFORMATION BAND TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE PA/NJ/NY AREA AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS IS

WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND

VERMONT...GENERALLY 06Z-15Z. SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 2" PER

HOUR. EXACT POSITION OF THIS BAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT BOTH

LOCAL AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE

NORTH COUNTRY. LOCAL MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE

GREATEST RATES MAY AFFECT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES

WITH HIGHLY BLOCKED LOW LEVEL FLOW (LOCAL WRF FROUDE NUMBERS ARE

WELL BELOW 0.5 THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL 15Z...REMAINING BELOW 1

UNTIL 18Z). THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND

NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KNOTS. WEAK VEERING PROFILE ALSO

EVIDENT AT KBTV SOUNDING. SOUNDINGS ARE EVEN INDICATING THE

PRESENCE OF SOME ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE

SNOWFALL RATES.

SNOW TOTALS OF 10 - 16 INCHES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR VERMONT AND

NORTHEASTERN VERMONT...WITH 4 - 8 INCHES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE

VALLEY.

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