HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 HM! ours coming out Tuesday..the science is pretty dumbed down for the public...but all I really care about are numbers... Yeah that will be fine. There are people using things they don't understand to say it will be a cold winter. So even though their forecast will likely end up closer to correct than not, it was for the wrong reasoning. The most egregious mistakes are coming from the world of the stratosphere, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 all is well.....HM is in the house and hasn't popped any weenie bubbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 all is well.....HM is in the house and hasn't popped any weenie bubbles I've got nothing to add. It's hard to say anything fresh right now. I would urge caution with snow predictions and remember what time of year it is...but other than that, yeah odds for snow are definitely elevated. The NAO signal is more of an east-based extension of the Scand. ridge which isn't exactly classic for a big Mid Atlantic snowfall. But there's no denying that impressive EPO-squashing baroclinic zone which probably, and easily, allows for the first flakes of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yeah that will be fine. There are people using things they don't understand to say it will be a cold winter. So even though their forecast will likely end up closer to correct than not, it was for the wrong reasoning. The most egregious mistakes are coming from the world of the stratosphere, as usual. HM -- curious what those mistakes are that you reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 HM -- curious what those mistakes are that you reference. Well, for starters, there is no SSW coming. There is a possibility for a CW or an early-season SSW, but it's not what is on the modeling currently. The snow pack did induce some vertical wave propagation during October but it isn't the main reason for the near-term splitting or the longer-term wave 1. The warm stratosphere doesn't "weigh down" on the troposphere, lowering the heights at 500mb (wow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The wx community's obsession with SSW is ridiculous, btw. As noted last year, it was about the wave disturbances and knocking the PV around more than it was its destruction. All that matters is decelerating the polar night jet and keeping the PV from getting too strong/wrapped-up. Calling each wave disturbance to the PV a "SSW" is like calling every radar-detected meso a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yeah that will be fine. There are people using things they don't understand to say it will be a cold winter. So even though their forecast will likely end up closer to correct than not, it was for the wrong reasoning. The most egregious mistakes are coming from the world of the stratosphere, as usual. I am much more results driven, but of course my mission is different...I enjoy and appreciate the long outlooks, but pages and pages of detailed info followed by a -1 to -3 anomaly plopped over an area the size of china and "above average" snow isn't that helpful...I kind of think with everyone doing seasonal outlooks these days there is a tad too much focus on reasoning and not enough on the results...the reveal/payoff is kind of weak...though I know people have different missions...our outlook comes out tomorrow..from a competitive standpoint I like the numbers I put out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I am much more results driven, but of course my mission is different...I enjoy and appreciate the long outlooks, but pages and pages of detailed info followed by a -1 to -3 anomaly plopped over an area the size of china and "above average" snow isn't that helpful...I kind of think with everyone doing seasonal outlooks these days there is a tad too much focus on reasoning and not enough on the results...the reveal/payoff is kind of weak...though I know people have different missions...our outlook comes out tomorrow..from a competitive standpoint I like the numbers I put out... I assume when you say "our" forecast, you are referring to the CWG assuming that is correct, I get the distinct impression that there is a "Price is Right" mentality over there when it comes to snow predictions in that being wrong by over estimating seasonal snowfall by 5" is a mortal mistake vs. going under 5", which is far more acceptable....am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I assume when you say "our" forecast, you are referring to the CWG assuming that is correct, I get the distinct impression that there is a "Price is Right" mentality over there when it comes to snow predictions in that being wrong by over estimating seasonal snowfall by 5" is a mortal mistake vs. going under 5", which is far more acceptable....am I wrong? Can I ask a stupid question? What is CWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Can I ask a stupid question? What is CWG? Capital Weather Gang, the antithesis to AWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I am much more results driven, but of course my mission is different...I enjoy and appreciate the long outlooks, but pages and pages of detailed info followed by a -1 to -3 anomaly plopped over an area the size of china and "above average" snow isn't that helpful...I kind of think with everyone doing seasonal outlooks these days there is a tad too much focus on reasoning and not enough on the results...the reveal/payoff is kind of weak...though I know people have different missions...our outlook comes out tomorrow..from a competitive standpoint I like the numbers I put out... Agreed with everything here. I'm at the point where I go straight to the maps/numbers anyway. And for this winter, there is no need to put out a CONUS map, lol. They all look exactly the same and for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I assume when you say "our" forecast, you are referring to the CWG assuming that is correct, I get the distinct impression that there is a "Price is Right" mentality over there when it comes to snow predictions in that being wrong by over estimating seasonal snowfall by 5" is a mortal mistake vs. going under 5", which is far more acceptable....am I wrong? yes...I am trying to nail the number, though if we have a 95-96, 09-10 type winter we will never get it right....in other words I am trying to get it right, but if it is over 30" or under 5" I'll never get it on the nose... EDIT - I guess I could see putting out an outlook where I go 30"+, but It is kind of silly to forecast huge deviations from normal in a seasonal outlook...same with temps...I would never forecast a -7 month or something like that....a seasonal outlook should do more than just say above or below, but an absolute number will never nail extremes....It is up to the reader to grade...but lets say you go +3 in January and it is +8...It is a much better call than if the month was -2...I think people get this stuff....I'll leave 10th/90th percentile seasonal predictions to others... Capital Weather Gang, the antithesis to AWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Outlook pushed to wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 yes...I am trying to nail the number, though if we have a 95-96, 09-10 type winter we will never get it right....in other words I am trying to get it right, but if it is over 30" or under 5" I'll never get it on the nose... no, I understand you want to get it right I was referring to the mindset in general over there (excluding you), but I guess what you're saying is that you are it when it comes to the seasonal forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 no, I understand you want to get it right I was referring to the mindset in general over there (excluding you), but I guess what you're saying is that you are it when it comes to the seasonal forecasts I think all of us want to get snow forecasts right and think we've busted both ways with regards to snow. More often than not, snowfall amounts get overhyped, inflated on lots of forecasts in the DC area. We just aren't that snowy so being conservative usually works. YOu go for the jugular with storms like Dec 19, 2009 and feb 5, 2010 not most run of the mill storms. Last year, we did pretty good on most of the storms so I'm not sure what your point is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 no, I understand you want to get it right I was referring to the mindset in general over there (excluding you), but I guess what you're saying is that you are it when it comes to the seasonal forecasts the strategy for discrete events is different than for seasonal predictions...I run my stuff by Wes and a few others and do take their input into account, but yes...Jason basically let's me put out the numbers I want.....as you know when you have a norm that is 150% of median it makes it trickier...I don't want to give away too much in terms of what I forecast...we can discuss more on Wednesday....and I can explain why I issued the numbers I did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think all of us want to get snow forecasts right and think we've busted both ways with regards to snow. More often than not, snowfall amounts get overhyped, inflated on lots of forecasts in the DC area. We just aren't that snowy so being conservative usually works. YOu go for the jugular with storms like Dec 19, 2009 and feb 5, 2010 not most run of the mill storms. Last year, we did pretty good on most of the storms so I'm not sure what your point is. I think the fluke/thread the needle to bust ratio is probably around 1:3 or 1:4....You're going to get a 3/6/13 or 12/26/10 about 3-4 times more than an overperformer or reverse bust.....I'm not convinced it snows here....I think last year was a dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 the strategy for discrete events is different than for seasonal predictions...I run my stuff by Wes and a few others and do take their input into account, but yes...Jason basically let's me put out the numbers I want.....as you know when you have a norm that is 150% of median it makes it trickier...I don't want to give away too much in terms of what I forecast...we can discuss more on Wednesday....and I can explain why I issued the numbers I did.... I'm just going to take your numbers and multiply by 3 to 4 given what happened last year. (kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 snow forecasts are the hardest thing to forecast...If you think there will be a lot of chances you should go above average...20" is an excellent year in DCA and two years in a row 20" or better is rare...with that said I think the east coast will have there share of chances for snow...It looks like the main storm track will be a coastal one...I'm leaning 20" or more again...good luck this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I've always enjoyed CWGs winter forecasts...they are the most reasonable and generally accurate for our area...question for Matt...what was the most snow for DC have you ever predicted in a seasonal forecast? Do you have a ceiling...is it 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Well, for starters, there is no SSW coming. There is a possibility for a CW or an early-season SSW, but it's not what is on the modeling currently. The snow pack did induce some vertical wave propagation during October but it isn't the main reason for the near-term splitting or the longer-term wave 1. The warm stratosphere doesn't "weigh down" on the troposphere, lowering the heights at 500mb (wow). The wx community's obsession with SSW is ridiculous, btw. As noted last year, it was about the wave disturbances and knocking the PV around more than it was its destruction. All that matters is decelerating the polar night jet and keeping the PV from getting too strong/wrapped-up. Calling each wave disturbance to the PV a "SSW" is like calling every radar-detected meso a tornado. Good points. That comment about weighing down the troposphere is something I've never heard...wow is right. And yeah there does seem to be a fixation on SSW(s) by some. As you well know, tropospheric blocking episodes can be induced by other sources besides a SSW, though certainly having one of those events can usually only help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I've always enjoyed CWGs winter forecasts...they are the most reasonable and generally accurate for our area...question for Matt...what was the most snow for DC have you ever predicted in a seasonal forecast? Do you have a ceiling...is it 30"? I started doing seasonal forecasts in 2004-05.....so I have done 10 winters so far not counting this year...not going to say what I went this year,....but through last winter the most snow I ever predicted at DCA was 24" in 09-10..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 yes...I am trying to nail the number, though if we have a 95-96, 09-10 type winter we will never get it right....in other words I am trying to get it right, but if it is over 30" or under 5" I'll never get it on the nose... EDIT - I guess I could see putting out an outlook where I go 30"+, but It is kind of silly to forecast huge deviations from normal in a seasonal outlook...same with temps...I would never forecast a -7 month or something like that....a seasonal outlook should do more than just say above or below, but an absolute number will never nail extremes....It is up to the reader to grade...but lets say you go +3 in January and it is +8...It is a much better call than if the month was -2...I think people get this stuff....I'll leave 10th/90th percentile seasonal predictions to others... The CWG commenters tend to be more moderate and less hardcore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I started doing seasonal forecasts in 2004-05.....so I have done 10 winters so far not counting this year...not going to say what I went this year,....but through last winter the most snow I ever predicted at DCA was 24" in 09-10..... Nice so that was a win then I think. I say if the forecast is for 15"+ at DCA it's a pretty solid winter for us. Good luck on your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nice so that was a win then I think. I say if the forecast is for 15"+ at DCA it's a pretty solid winter for us. Good luck on your forecast thanks...most people viewed that forecast as success...even though we missed snow by 32"..lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 thanks...most people viewed that forecast as success...even though we missed snow by 32"..lol.. And it definitely was a success. Snow forecasting is an awful task here when talking about how many inches. We can put up ridiculous #s above average and we can suck a tail pipe. Imo- a simple above average or below average seasonal is just fine. I personally judge seasonals on monthly temps more than inches of snow. That's the more technical piece of the puzzle. Getting the seasonal # right but having the months mixed up is too muddy to claim victory but considering how difficult it is to nail monthlies my bar is likely too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think all of us want to get snow forecasts right and think we've busted both ways with regards to snow. More often than not, snowfall amounts get overhyped, inflated on lots of forecasts in the DC area. We just aren't that snowy so being conservative usually works. YOu go for the jugular with storms like Dec 19, 2009 and feb 5, 2010 not most run of the mill storms. Last year, we did pretty good on most of the storms so I'm not sure what your point is. frankly Wes, I wasn't even thinking about you, but some of the other forecasters I read what you post/link here but stopped reading CWG otherwise a while back as I got a sense they were not snow lovers or just playing to the "normal" people (heresy I tell you, heresy!) in any event, when I did read those other forecasts, I detected glee in their tone when snow failed....totally unacceptable to this weenie maybe the forecasting style is diff now, idk, but it doesn't really matter because I was only referring to the seasonal forecasts and Matt seems ultimately to be the driver of that bus after all info, and I'm sure other opinions, are digested by him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 frankly Wes, I wasn't even thinking about you, but some of the other forecasters I read what you post/link here but stopped reading CWG otherwise a while back as I got a sense they were not snow lovers or just playing to the "normal" people (heresy I tell you, heresy!) in any event, when I did read those other forecasts, I detected glee in their tone when snow failed....totally unacceptable to this weenie maybe the forecasting style is diff now, idk, but it doesn't really matter because I was only referring to the seasonal forecasts and Matt seems ultimately to be the driver of that bus after all info, and I'm sure other opinions, are digested by him A few forecasters at CWG have a bad warm bias...but I found last year most forecasts were agnostic and matter of fact toward snow...and I think the forecasts are really good...you might want to give them another try...they aren't going to be over the moon about snow in their forecasts, but it is because a lot of people hate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 A few forecasters at CWG have a bad warm bias...but I found last year most forecasts were agnostic and matter of fact toward snow...and I think the forecasts are really good...you might want to give them another try...they aren't going to be over the moon about snow in their forecasts, but it is because a lot of people hate snow Too many yuppies live in DC. They drag snow's name through the mud. Terrible. One of their commenters actually left because he felt offended that people were actually cheering for snow. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I know a similar map was already posted, but that rapid warming in the CPAC is just what the doctor ordered. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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