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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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Flat-out slanderous lies. I intended for the P/T stuff to stay in the climate forum and is not relevant to this year or winter. My prediction for this winter is slightly above normal with a poor snow department along and east of I-95.

 

I put some stock into the CFS, last year this time it showed arctic ice box conditions and was correct. We are on our way up and out tho. Just sayin, give it a couple more decades especially when you see a complete flip back into +PDO like the 80s and 90s.

Doesn't matter.

 

I'm not the first to bring this up.  Every post you've made in this thread has global warming as its main theme.

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1958-59 mei new and old...

1957	-.948	-.35	.156	.351	.901	.768	.924	1.122	1.179	1.097	1.133	1.2311958	1.474	1.451	1.317	1.025	.724	.893	.711	.428	.178	.208	.49	.711959	.577	.804	.502	.218	.001	.01	-.187	.069	.055	-.081	-.184	-.265
1957	-.736	-.387	.049	.41	.792	1.371	1.628	1.551	1.436	1.152	1.157	1.3121958	1.478	1.549	1.505	1.38	1.5	1.602	1.419	1.02	.604	.424	.373	.5341959	.639	.747	.86	.748	.797	.864	.549	.308	.232	.142	.048	-.125
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Harry,

I'm going to guess at this. Maybe it has something to do with the SST's of the surrounding water. If we assume that the surrounding SST's are warmer these days, perhaps it takes even warmer 3.4 SST's to have the same effect today? Is this possible? I'll do a hypothetical example to illustrate. Let's say that the surrounding waters between 5 and 10 N/S had a normal temp of 25 C in 1958 but 26 C today. Now, let's say that in 1958 it took 25.5 C in Niño 3.4 to get a weak El Niño (i.e., 0.5 C warmer than the surrounding water). Well, today's 25.5 C in 3.4 would actually be COOLER than the surrounding water instead of warmer like in 1958. So, in order to make it 0.5 warmer than the surrounding water today, Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C instead of 25.5 C. So, might it be that Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C today to have the same El Niño type of effect today that 25.5 C had in 1958? If so, then would it, indeed, make sense to require 3.4 be 1 C warmer today than it was in 1958 to result in the same El Niño effects throughout the world today that it had in 1958?

Keep in mind that a typical El Niño SST signature has a strip of the warmest SST anomalies within 5 degrees of the equator.

Anyone? Might my way of thinking about this be true?

 

My point has to do with SSTs and moisture. A water temp of 86 degrees in 1958 shouldn't be any different then 86 today because you are putting the same amount of moisture into the atmosphere. You follow me? The moisture relates to the S. Jet which we all know is more active during years with warmer SSTs..

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My point has to do with SSTs and moisture. A water temp of 86 degrees in 1958 shouldn't be any different then 86 today because you are putting the same amount of moisture into the atmosphere. You follow me? The moisture relates to the S. Jet which we all know is more active during years with warmer SSTs..

 

Harry,

 I follow your thinking. However, I'm wondering if it just isn't specifically the warming in Nino but rather the contrast of warmer near the equator than surrounding areas that helps channel the energy and help the air rise more over/near the equator (via the contrast) and thus create the strong southern jet. I don't know, but I'm wondering. The Nino signature is a long warmer area near the equator. What if it were warm but the surrounding area even warmer? That would be more like a La Nina sig., not El Nino.

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This is a Mid-Atlantic forum, is it not? I for one appreciate outside analysis every now and then, but other such discussions shouldn't belong here. Maybe an extra sub-forum can be created for intra-regional stuff, thoughts?

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This is a Mid-Atlantic forum, is it not? I for one appreciate outside analysis every now and then, but other such discussions shouldn't belong here. Maybe an extra sub-forum can be created for intra-regional stuff, thoughts?

first, the discussion is good

second, ENSO discussion is relevant to all areas of the conus so it's fine imho

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This is a Mid-Atlantic forum, is it not? I for one appreciate outside analysis every now and then, but other such discussions shouldn't belong here. Maybe an extra sub-forum can be created for intra-regional stuff, thoughts?

My apologies for any offense by posting here. I'm clearly not from the Mid-Atlantic but I do enjoy discussing weather with pretty much anyone as well as learning from anyone who knows what they're talking about. However, if you'd rather me not post here please feel free to say so.

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Harry,

 I follow your thinking. However, I'm wondering if it just isn't specifically the warming in Nino but rather the contrast of warmer near the equator than surrounding areas that helps channel the energy and help the air rise more over/near the equator (via the contrast) and thus create the strong southern jet. I don't know, but I'm wondering. The Nino signature is a long warmer area near the equator. What if it were warm but the surrounding area even warmer? That would be more like a La Nina sig., not El Nino.

 

 

Sorry for the delayed response..

 

Interesting thoughts... It could explain the La'Nino etc type patterns ( as some referred to them as )  in recent years? The method to determining Nino/Nina i will always have doubts about and or atleast till we have a few more ( nino's/nina's ) under the belt with the newer system.

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Another enso baby step

 

anomnight.11.6.2014.gif

 

 

Starting to see some bn anomalies building n of enso and s of HI. Pretty normal in a Nino. Even though the event is still weak, the entire npac basin is looking pretty good to me. 

Amazing how each major ocean basin all have positive anomalies.

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Amazing how each major ocean basin all have positive anomalies.

 

It's anomalous but not unprecedented. 03 had a lot of warmth all over. I would say this year beats it easily at the same point in time.

 

The NPAC has changed quite a bit from just the beginning of Oct. It's been constantly cooling and will prob continue in most areas for the foreseeable future. 

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