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Monday Through Wednesday Lake Effect Snow Event


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I thought I would start a thread for the upcoming lake effect event

 

Well  our Apps Runner, brought everything but the kitchen sink.  Now we await for yet another intrusion of arctic air.  But, the big story starting tomorrow through Wednesday will be the Lake Effect Snow developing across the Tug Hill and off of Lake Erie . Several feet of snow are expected.  

 

850mb temps will crash to -25C, more than enough for a epic lake effect event.  Winds will be such that Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming and Livingston counties off of Lake Erie.
 

Wind orientation will ensure that Lake Ontario has a band that will run the entire axis of the Lake. other than a few wiggles , the band should say over the Tug Hill Plateau for most of the event.

 

Amounts off of Lake Erie could be up around 3 feet. With the Tug hill possibly seeing five or six feet of snow, maybe more in spots.

 

I live on the Tug, thought Y'all would enjoy a discussion on it.

 

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Have fun up there guys. I got a bunch of friends from Millersville University in the OWLeS project going into the Ontario band in Sandy Creek and near the Tug. They are expecting 45-60" in Sandy Creek with up to 80+" in the Tug. I'll be enjoying following both bands from home here in Baltimore, MD where the low will reach 0 or lower for the first time in 20 years. Isn't winter the best? Stay safe all

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Have fun up there guys. I got a bunch of friends from Millersville University in the OWLeS project going into the Ontario band in Sandy Creek and near the Tug. They are expecting 45-60" in Sandy Creek with up to 80+" in the Tug. I'll be enjoying following both bands from home here in Baltimore, MD where the low will reach 0 or lower for the first time in 20 years. Isn't winter the best? Stay safe all

Thanks man,make sure you bundle up down there!

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Outside right now. Including in this video was a guy driving in a 4 wheel drive taping this event. Going to search for his on youtube tonight. ^_^

 

 

Can hear the snow crunching under you in that, a very cold LES event. Enjoy what could be Lake Erie's last hurrah! We haven't been nailed particularly well in NE OH this year by the lake but you guys certainly have been. Am glad this is living up to all the hype for you guys.

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A bit surprising to me is how well organized the band off of Lake Erie is given that the winds are above 50 kts near 850 mb based on the 00z BUF sounding. It's possible that the extreme temperature difference between the lake surface and the air just above is producing enough bouyancy to counteract the shear. Another possibility is the that there is low-level convergence enhanced near the northern shore of Lake Erie due to the increased friction over the ice surface versus the water.

 

BUF.gif

 

Either way, both the 4 km NAM and the HRRR have been doing poorly so far, placing the main band too far south, along the southern shore of Lake Erie. These models may have missed the enhanced convergence along the northern shore of the lake, perhaps because they haven't assimilated the most recent ice cover data.

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I just got up for something else and than I just looked out the window and my jaw-dropped, it was the greatest white-out in front of the house I have ever seen!!!!!  :o I have never seen anything like it, I guess 0 visibility or something lol. I couldn't even see the trees 20 feet away anymore (large). It's pretty much complete blizzard conditions for me as well now. I was shaking afterwards it was so insane. All the plows are now off roads here. Drifting is very rapid.

 

What might be the other amazing or unbelievable part is there is almost nothing showing up on the Dbz returns over me at this time and its heavy snow within the blizzard...

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I just got up for something else and than I just looked out the window and my jaw-dropped, it was the greatest white-out in front of the house I have ever seen!!!!!  :o I have never seen anything like it, I guess 0 visibility or something lol. I couldn't even see the trees 20 feet away anymore (large). It's pretty much complete blizzard conditions for me as well now. I was shaking afterwards it was so insane. All the plows are now off roads here. Drifting is very rapid.

 

What might be the other amazing or unbelievable part is there is almost nothing showing up on the Dbz returns over me at this time and its heavy snow within the blizzard...

 

Might have to do with the insanely cold temperatures which are harder for the reflectivity of the radar to capture.

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  • Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -30. Windy, with a west wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 10 to 15 inches possible.

 

  • Tuesday Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 6. Wind chill values as low as -30. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 15 inches possible.

 

  • Tuesday Night Snow before 3am, then snow likely after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches possible.

 

  • Wednesday Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -20. Southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...

EAST OF LAKE ERIE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPERIENCED
IN THE BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
ERIE COUNTY LINE/NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AKA SHORT-WAVE IS STARTING TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE
REGION AT 03Z...WITH BOTH A PUSH TO THE SOUTH BUT ALSO WITH
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND. THE NET RESULT
IS LITTLE CHANGE. UPSTREAM LOWER LEVELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION PER KCLE RADAR...ALTHOUGH HIGHER DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK
LAKE MI CONNECTION THAT MIGHT RE-ENERGIZE BAND BEHIND THE SHORT-
WAVE. LATEST MODEL DATA GETS A STRONGER BAND GETS GOING BETWEEN
12-15Z...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS TOO SLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT BAND TO BE
DEVELOPING OR IN FULL FORCE BY AROUND SUNRISE NEAR/OVER KBUF...BUT
NOT QUITE TO NORTHTOWNS. THE BAND MAY CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH
DURING THE DAY. A CONTINUATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE BAND...BRIEF WHITEOUTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6AM
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY BE CONVERTED BACK TO ANOTHER LESS
SIGNIFICANT PRODUCT LATER IF NECESSARY.

TO ADD TO THE PROBLEM...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 0F OR
BELOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BLIZZARD LOCATIONS...WITH WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW THAT. STARTING TO SEE OBSERVATIONS NEARING -40F
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
PART OF BLIZZARD CRITERIA...IT MAKES THIS EVENT A DANGEROUS TO
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE WITHOUT PROPER
WINTER GEAR.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN IMPACT ON THE LAKE BAND WITH A KIND OF WHIP-LASH
EFFECT...SWINGING THE BAND A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT
LOCATION...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS IT REBOUNDS BACK TO THE TUG HILL
LATER TONIGHT. THE BAND SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN A STEADY STATE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WELL
BEYOND TUESDAY.

IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THE STRONG WINDS MAKE MEASURING SNOW
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ITS BORDERING ON DANGEROUS! ROUGH
ESTIMATES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BANDS ARE AROUND 4
INCHES...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEART OF BOTH BANDS
SO FAR THIS EVENING. WE MAY NEVER NO EXACTLY HOW MUCH FELL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED BANDS ON
TUESDAY ENE OF BOTH LAKES. 2-3 FEET FOR THE STORM TOTAL EAST OF
LAKE ERIE LOOKS GOOD STILL...DOUBLE THAT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

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