Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 3-6th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yep I agree Geos. WSW will likely be expanded north in LOT if trends continue. Not sure if they would go all the way to the WI line. But you can't/won't be denied!

WWA areas north of current Watch....warning issued when depths at ORD hit 7inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Glad to see the 4km NAM lost the dry slot

Sheesh, significant differences in PV placement on the NAM and GFS.

Almost as if the models aren't used to dealing with the polar vortex visiting Lake Superior with a potential bomb close by

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WPC not using NAM

 

 

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

VALID JAN 04/0000 UTC THRU JAN 07/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW(S) IMPACTING THE
N-CNTRL U.S. TODAY
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 00Z NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY TODAY OVER THE
N-CNTRL STATES. THE PREVIOUS 12Z NAM APPEARED OKAY AND IT IS NOT
CLEAR WHY THE RECENT NAM SHIFTED SLOWER. REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE
FORMS A GOOD COMPROMISE.


BURGEONING TROUGH MID-CONTINENT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FROM SAT THROUGH MON
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC BY MON
MORNING...WITH THE EC...GEFS...AND CMC MEMBERS MOSTLY AGREEING ON
A POSITION NOW. THE 12Z UKMET IS LIKELY TOO SLOW GIVEN A VAST
MAJORITY OF QUICKER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST
OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC
HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT AND REPRESENT THE BEST COMPROMISE OF THE
CURRENT AVAILABLE MODELS.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For YYZ; 

 

Nam: 2-3" 

GFS: 7-9" 

GGEM: 7-10" 

 

Take it FWIW! 

 

Local Toronto T.V mets are saying 10-20  cm. maybe.

 

Have always watched Don Paul on WIVB in Buffalo for general regional overview.

He had a light mixed precip. on his maps. Nothing much for synoptic system in Golden Horseshoe...

what he seemed concerned about was wind chills and lake snows after.

 

There isn't an agreed general consensus for this storm in YYZ anywhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...