Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just saw the 00z RGEM precip type charts. All snow for the entire run up to 00z Monday. However, the R/S line is hugging the south shore of Lake Ontario in the Niagara region. The only way we could be saved from any mixing is if the low moves ENE instead of NE from western Ohio. Makes me glad I live up by Steeles Avenue and the border with Markham. Yet again, the 401 may be the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 here's one for you, NWohweather- the NAM 4km run that just finished. Still going your way to northwest Ohio. Don't know if the NAM has been super on synoptics here, but this is what we got with this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just checked out the precip maps for the latest RGEM. I may have overreacted as, at least up to hour 48, it shows moderate snow for Toronto. It also shows the precip type as snow in Ohio too?? Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Then there is this map. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I've searched over the 135 years of Columbus records, and never before has there been a rainstorm literally the day before a severe arctic outbreak. It's always been snow or nothing, so this would be a first. You would think the density of such a cold airmass would nudge the storm SE. I am thinking the neutral NAO is allowing the storm to track more north than would be during a -NAO which is usually present just before a severe arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not seeing anything dramatic with the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looping the RGEM precip type maps, you can clearly see some lake enhancement off of Lake Michigan...band swings west toward Chicago for a while before coming back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 wow Another version @ Hoosier - Alek probably gets buried with another 15" if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not seeing anything dramatic with the 0z GFS. Actually, it'll be a worse run for here than the 12z edition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not gonna panic here in SE Indiana until I see the GFS and Euro. If it does pass over Cincy and Dayton and west of Cleveland, that would be the exact same track as 1/26/78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z GFS says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not gonna panic here in SE Indiana until I see the GFS and Euro. If it does pass over Cincy and Dayton and west of Cleveland, that would be the exact same track as 1/26/78... 1978 passed further east than that, from Portsmouth over Columbus to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 RGEM would be Detroit's equalizer for GHD 2011. So yeah, lock it in please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS not budging. I'm just going to nowcast this POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS not budging. Is the latest GFS still good for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 No changes on the 0z GFS through 54 hours.. Much cooler for YYZ than 0z Nam/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Is the latest GFS still good for Toronto? Looks good. All snow. Over 6" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Is the latest GFS still good for Toronto? Slides out to sea harmlessly. T for Toronto. Nah, it's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 No changes on the 0z GFS through 54 hours.. Much cooler for YYZ than 0z Nam/RGEM. Thing is that the RGEM would be all snow if extrapolated beyond 48 hours but it would be close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The 0z GFS does have better snows further NW cause the fronto snows are more impressive early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Was that a screen capture, or did you take that with a camera? Paused the tv and took with my camera phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS looks like a fairly good hit for CLE. Wouldn't be surprised to see the ECM nudge a little farther NW tho'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Slides out to sea harmlessly. T for Toronto. Nah, it's pretty good. Thing is that the RGEM would be all snow if extrapolated beyond 48 hours but it would be close though. Hopefully the NAM is just on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Would like some met input on this...would higher res models such as the NAM/RGEM handle a scenario like this better than the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ukie calmed down a bit 1003 over cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Skilling all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Paused the tv and took with my camera phone Awesome. Latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sheesh, significant differences in PV placement on the NAM and GFS. NAM is more amplified, placed to the west and more neutrally tilted. The RGEM has a similar PV pattern depicted by the NAM, and hence greater phasing is allowed between the southern stream and digging PV. This allows the low to deepen more rapidly and track further NW compared to the GFS, where the more positively tilted PV is blocking it from going too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ukie calmed down a bit 1003 over cincy Yes it did. But it was a dream scenario all along for Hoosier and I. Not that this run still won't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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