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Looks like the Mid South gets even more snow Sunday and Monday. I was (pleasantly) shocked to see a dusting in Chatty Thursday night. This front is stronger; more moisture hangs back in the cold air; dendrite zone will be as MRX describes; and, that difluent flow lingers aloft. Cyclonic flow will remain behind the front longer, compared to the quick clearing Thursday night. 

 

I like the low end of NWS discussions at the moment. Wild cards include timing of CAA per NWS discussions and liquid ratios. Dusting to half inch Chatty, 1-2 surrounding mountains; 1-3 from MEM to BNA to Knox, higher maybe 4 Upper Plateau; 2-4 northeast/TRI, local variation noted above; and, hammer time in the Smokies! Kentucky should do well. I'd also look for (lighter) sticking snow from far northern Mississippi through North Alabama into North Georgia. Cheers!

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The first of what will likely be watches/warnings/advisories for almost every county in Tennessee. Southern Kentucky is also going under WSWs. 

 

 

 
Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014

...WINTRY WEATHER INTO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR DRIVEN BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CHANGING THE
RAIN QUICKLY TO SNOW. MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDERS.

ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>021-040600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.140105T0900Z-140106T0300Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-
HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...
DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON
347 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EARLY EVENING

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLY CREATING SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.
 
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Your Chatty totals seem spot on. I have a feeling people around here will be highly disappointed come Monday morning. People hear 1-4" ( with high amounts in the Eastern mountains) and now they are talking about the 4" we will get Sunday night. I was having a beer at Champys a few hours ago and people were giddy with the 4 inches "predicted".

 

I just ate my chicken and had my beer while I eavesdropped. I hope it overperforms but this area really needs a gulf low to get any sig snowfall.

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I ate at Champy's Tuesday evening! 

 

I'd say that if any area of the state doesn't end up under a WWA Sunday night, it'll be the Hamilton County area. I still think you'll get snowfall though. 1-1.5 inches probably.

 

Your Chatty totals seem spot on. I have a feeling people around here will be highly disappointed come Monday morning. People hear 1-4" ( with high amounts in the Eastern mountains) and now they are talking about the 4" we will get Sunday night. I was having a beer at Champys a few hours ago and people were giddy with the 4 inches "predicted".

 

I just ate my chicken and had my beer while I eavesdropped. I hope it overperforms but this area really needs a gulf low to get any sig snowfall.

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I'm in north Alabama and have learned not to get excited about anything but a gulf low for snow, but I'm hopeful TN can get some this time around. Local mets are calling for 1-2 inches, which I think is generous for our area.

Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk HD

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For fun here's Earl's happy hour 18z GFS snow map!

 

qkdfWEh.gif

 

 

From 06z onward the models have generally shown more and more snow for the TN Valley today.  I can't imagine much more could be squeezed out but you better believe I'll be glued to the 0z suite tonight.

We keep seeing a shift all day long.0Z should be well sampled then games on :sled:

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According to Reb, the local TV mets here are all over the place on totals.  One is calling for 3-5 in the valley (Aldrich), another says very low chance of any accumulation at all (Hinkin no surprise), and one is saying "several" inches (Howell). 

TWC says 3-5, accuweather- nadda

 

This could trend drier as we get closer to the storm IMO but what do I know? :D

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Hinkin never forecasts snow. He forecast 6 inches max for the blizzard of 1993. Said every other station was crazy for talking about a blizzard. Then on their 20 year blizzard anniversary video he talks about how the blizzard snuck up and surprised everyone. It was one of the most well forecast storms ever. 

 

Aledrich is odd, he's calling for a burst of uber heavy snow to get to 3-5 and saying all snow will be gone from East TN by day break Monday. I'll be stunned if it doesn't snow all day Monday over a good portion of East TN.

According to Reb, the local TV mets here are all over the place on totals.  One is calling for 3-5 in the valley (Aldrich), another says very low chance of any accumulation at all (Hinkin no surprise), and one is saying "several" inches (Howell). 

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Do you guys trust Howell the most? And hello! I'm just a reader with nothing to add but hope. I'm excited you guys started a forum for us and if we do finally get snow again, I think this is the lucky charm. I've read here since early 2011 and don't think I've seen more than a dusting in West Knoxville since. I hope it's ok to post this here. If it needs to be in banter instead, someone let me know, please.

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Do you guys trust Howell the most? And hello! I'm just a reader with nothing to add but hope. I'm excited you guys started a forum for us and if we do finally get snow again, I think this is the lucky charm. I've read here since early 2011 and don't think I've seen more than a dusting in West Knoxville since. I hope it's ok to post this here. If it needs to be in banter instead, someone let me know, please.

You should post more Tabby! Howell is easily the most trusted/best met in Knoxville. 

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Do you guys trust Howell the most? And hello! I'm just a reader with nothing to add but hope. I'm excited you guys started a forum for us and if we do finally get snow again, I think this is the lucky charm. I've read here since early 2011 and don't think I've seen more than a dusting in West Knoxville since. I hope it's ok to post this here. If it needs to be in banter instead, someone let me know, please.

 

Hi there!  I'm a big fan of Todd because to me it's obvious he's very passionate about weather.  I turn to him during any severe event and even have some video recordings saved of him during the April 2011 outbreak, his coverage is top notch.  He loves winter too and you can see that snow grin take over his face when he's talking models.

 

Thanks for joining the discussion fellow west Knoxvillian!

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Thanks for the welcome guys! I always thought he was the best but my knowledge of weather is about what an average person watching TV knows. I won't post more banter here - but I'm pumped about snow! - but I've tried to learn from all of you here but my brain only does debits and credits and just can't do science. :santa:  ~Teresa

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