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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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Happy New Year all!

Great to see so many people tune in at 1am on NYE for the Euro read.

 

6z NAM continues even more prolific: sharper trough obvious by 48h and brings ensuing SLP 50+ miles west.

QPF-wise, 1.5" now licks eastern MA.

 

SREFs have ticked up QPF-wise eastern MA with every single run for the past 5 runs.

At 3z, mean for KBOS is >20". Even removing the + outlier MBN3, mean qpf is 19.6".

 

All but 1 member of 0z GEFS have warning criteria for most of SNE north.

 

Hard not to anticipate that the Euro may be off here compared to all the NCEP guidance. It's king, but it has had 3-4 cycle hiccups in the past. Jerry pointed out the December 26 2010 blizzard... then again models struggled with multiple waves of low pressure.

 

Regarding headlines, I'm a little surprised there's no watch out yet for eastern MA (vs. zones in CT where it's been up since earlier this evening). Multiple guidance showing well above warning criteria.

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OMG the trends.......... The Trends.......... Wooooow it IS happening. My Weenie How's are there. Secondary Close Off Come NW Freezing Still City!!

NAM with 12"-20" now. GFS with 8"-15".

 

You're in a great spot it seems--congrats.  NAM looks awesome.  It would be great if it schooled everyone.  That--combined with EC's lackluster performance--would throw a wrench into how we approach future events this season.  Always fun to watch when that happens.

 

Thankfully, GC is picking up a few from the overrunning to compensate for the lower amounts from the coatal.

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And watches are now up for most of MA.

 

Not a bad start to the year when this little nugget is embedded in the AFD:

* Wind...models continue to show that this low will deepen around
late Thursday night and into Friday...allowing for the pressure
gradient to increase and gusty winds to occur. 925 mb jet is
around 40-50kts across the Massachusetts/pvd corridor and into the cape and
islands. Soundings continue to show excellent mixing due to Arctic
airmass...so these winds will mix down to the surface resulting in
gusts 35-45 miles per hour. With these kind of gusts and snow
accumulations...near blizzard like conditions are anticipated.
Since the winds are not expected to really gust until Thursday
night...held off on the potential for a blizzard watch and will
let day shift look at the latest 12z model data. Area of concern
is from Cape Ann down to Cape Cod including the city of Boston and
as far west as Providence.
Regardless of headlines expect
significant blowing and drifting of snow reducing visibilities making
travel near impossible. 

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impressed with this system now for out this way. may see blizzard watches hoisted out this was, down to cc and up coast to boston

 

Good shot of it--you're primed for a whooping.

 

The breeze out here shouldn't be too shabby either.

 

BTW--the January 6 event on the GFS is coming in closer.  Even teasing GC with the possibility of some wintry stuff in the mix.

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I'm sure the numbers are comparable elsewhere, but the temps for this are really impressive.  Here's for my crib:

 

Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows around 11. Northwest winds around 5 mph...becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Thursday: Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Cold. Near steady temperature around 13. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Thursday Night: Snow. Colder with lows around 1 above. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Wind chill values as low as 19 below.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Colder. Near steady temperature around 2 above. Northwest winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Wind chill values as low as 21 below.

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06z GFS Ensm solidly clustered at this point

attachicon.giff54.gif

 

They're clustered as one would hope--and typically anticipate--at this point with respect to having a pretty good ballpark resolution.  This is great for you since the jackpot areas would not likely shift dramatically at this point.  Of course--crazy things happen.

 

The clustering is less well defined when you consider the impact on areas outside of the jackpot areas.  Those continue to show small--but important--variations between the members.

 

That said, I envy you your location for this one.  Looks like a good one en route.

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Few thoughts on the 6z GFS before the 12z cycle starts. Obviously, I love the look overall, a few important things.

 

1. 850 mb low closes off with the primary and then takes a perfect track for SNE as the secondary gets going. Very good support for the hefty totals now being thrown around of region wide 8"+

 

2. 700 mb low (6z GFS)  takes a good track but closes off just a bit too late to really spread the CCB wealth for more of the region outside of eastern areas. If we're going to think about 12"+ for more of the region I would think that this needs to close off earlier to really enhance the transport of precip for more of the region. This could take this storm from moderate to major if it happens in the upcoming cycles. Based on trends I think this is possible and it has been shown on the meso models - especially the 3z srefs and it closes off in a good spot on the 6z NAM as well.

 

3. SNE gets into the donut hole dryslot for a good chunk of thursday. There may be some premature weenie suicides and toaster baths that happen because radar would probably look attrocious as the big deal starts to crank and get organized.

 

All in all, I'm a very big fan of the look at 6z and hope the improvements continue especially on the globals as 12z rolls.

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Coastalwx/Scott: I had heard about a euro update. I noticed many times last winter it seemed to be more off than usual. I wonder if it's the 2012 change people are complaining about ? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/operational_system/evolution/

Heres the full PowerPoint on the changes

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/forecast_products_user/Presentations2013/Bauer.pdf

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While generally speaking, I don't expect this to have major accumulations above a foot (the jackpot areas almost certainly will), I find the sheer area that will have a significant dumping from this to really be impresssive and unusual.  It's not often that Such a larger area--both longitutinal  and lattitudinal-experience these accumulations and all be taint-free.

 

I hope Ii didn't just jinx anything.

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I'm curious as to who scores bigger on this. I think it is either around Bob-TAN/Foxboro or Cape Ann

Nice ticks. Even Billy Joel should do ok

 

I'm guessing Bob--but I think bigger is little more than semantics at this point.

 

The BJ references go over my head--I assume it has to do with the concert last night.

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Since we're posting maps...GYX...

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Quite a stretch for you up there.  I think the Jackson/Bartlett area was reporting 11" from the Sunday storm.  I didn't measure, but that looked pretty reasonable based on what I was walking through.  Add in this and perhaps a cooler evolution for next week.....yikes.

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I'm guessing Bob--but I think bigger is little more than semantics at this point.

 

The BJ references go over my head--I assume it has to do with the concert last night.

Tip was wasted last nite  with the "guys" drinking bubbly thru interlocking arms and made a reference that I look like Billy Joel

 

We couldn't look more dissimiliar.

 

Huge 12 z runs today. Absolutely monsters

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