Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Banter


Isopycnic

Recommended Posts

Looks a bit wet to me next week!!!   

 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS

IN THE MID 50S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY

IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 40. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN

70 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE

EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER WITH LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

 

You may want to check out wxsouth video for Feb .Very encouraging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It's really not endemic among just WeatherBell maps.  All snow clown maps are pretty terrible.  WeatherBell's are the worst, no doubt, but even the one found on Allan's site can be way off depending on the situation.

 

The truth is that clown maps should probably never be used for serious forecasting and I don't think they ever really are used for that.  They're nice "model porn" to look at, though, especially with all the pretty colors on WeatherBell's maps. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been since 2005 since most of the area has had major ice storm so we are overdue. If the models are right with all of the key features, this storm could end up much worse and more widespread than the 1999, 2002, and 2005 ice storms. The key is the confluence I think. If that is there the high gets locked in and we don't warm above freezing for quite a while. If we lose the confluence the is will be lesser of a threat.

 

Still trying, eh? Good for you.

 

Although I still expect a redaction to your staunch call for an end to winter west of I-95.  :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Calc,

 But it is misinformation. The misinformation shouldn't even be distributed to anyone, much less the general public. Because they're very inaccurate, what good does it do for the ignorant general public to see them? It is bad enough when they see accurate info. But inaccurate? Example: Euro clown maps yesterday showed 4" of snow in Savannah that day, which was essentially impossible with 850's well above 0C. How is it good for the largely ignorant general public to see maps showing 4": of snow yesterday when it had no chance to happen? Savannah got no snow whatsoever, which I pretty much expected and as the GFS clown showed..

 

Edit: Now I just read in the other thread that they're circulating maps for next weekend showing ATL getting a huge snow when the model isn't really doing that. OMG, this is really bad! I wish there was a way to outlaw clowns!

 

It's great for the local economies for people to see these maps!  Grocery stores will make a killing!

 

But, seriously, I don't think it hurts anything.  I myself am not on Facebook or Twitter or any social media other than AmWx (this is quite social, isn't it?), but I'll look at other people's pages, especially those of mets.  Brad clearly wrote the word "MODEL" on the image, and "NOT A FORECAST."  If people really believe that any model or weatherman can accurately predict what will happen 10 days from now, then they've got other issues, ones that we are not going to solve by preventing them from seeing these maps.  Sure, it stinks that the Euro map overcompensates snowfall totals, but again it doesn't hurt anything, other than to really disappoint some of those on this board who live and die by every single model run.

 

In any event, the posting of model maps on social media is not preventable or governable.  There's no way to police people and what they choose to post on social media, so it's something we'll just have to accept and live with.  The world will continue to go on, and perhaps some person, who is already enthralled by the weather, will become curious over these maps and seek out locations where people talk about them in earnest.  Then, we will have added another member to this awesome group of weather lovers that we all participate in.

 

Agreed -- and most of the images I have seen plastered around social media are from subscription sites.  I wonder what the sites think about all these images being spread around the internet for free? I mean, I'm sure they can pick up a few more subscribers out of curiosity, but it also seems unfair to those who pay to subscribe yet see some of the images floating around for free. As a side note, I feel like a "true" meteorologist would make his or her own maps based on their own interpretation of what the models output (exactly like WxJordan just did in the discussion thread -- good job, btw!). Posting raw model output for the general public is modelology and requires no skill or education. I do think it is misinformation. Like I said before, the general public doesn't care whether it's a model or a forecast -- they see a map with colors and numbers that shows snow in their backyard. Models also change every few hours, yet the posts keep being shared and spread. Last week I saw someone share a 3-day old euro map, when the current models and forecast showed nothing near that same solution. It causes confusion and panic.

 

No, you shouldn't hide information. But I think you should responsibly filter what you put out there based on your audience, and based on what you are trying to convey.

 

First of all, I think WxBell loves all the free advertising their getting.  In fact, I'm beginning to wonder if they have not intentionally coded their snowfall maps to overcompensate totals, because that's what the people want:  "You want snow?  We'll give you snow!"  (Fantasy snow, that is!)  Seriously, who among us isn't enthralled when looking at their maps with "all the pretty colors"?  Their graphics rock!  They have made a great visual product.  Perhaps they'll adjust their algorithms over time, or perhaps not.  The market will drive their business choices.  Isn't that how it usually works?

 

Secondly, the general public may not "care whether it's a model or a forecast," but that's their issue, not that of the Facebook poster.  Do you believe everything you read on the Internet?  I know I sure don't.  An individual should be responsible enough to do their own homework, weigh the credibility of the poster, evaluate the content they are viewing, and then make an informed decision regarding what they want to do with the information.  If they go raid the local grocery store prematurely, well, that's not the fault of the person who posted the map on Facebook.

 

Gentlemen, I don't suppose I'm going to convince you to see it from my point of view, and I don't believe you're going to bring me around to your way of thinking on this issue either.  So, we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one.  And, that's OK.  There's room for all of us on this great weather board.  Now, let's reel in some more awesome winter storms!!  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"You want snow?  We'll give you snow!"  (Fantasy snow, that is!) 

 

 

you're probably right! :lol:

 

Do you believe everything you read on the Internet?  I know I sure don't.  An individual should be responsible enough to do their own homework, weigh the credibility of the poster, evaluate the content they are viewing, and then make an informed decision regarding what they want to do with the information.

 

Maybe that's the problem: there's no Snopes for weather models ;)

 

Gentlemen, I don't suppose I'm going to convince you to see it from my point of view, and I don't believe you're going to bring me around to your way of thinking on this issue either.  So, we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one.  And, that's OK.

 

Yep -- it's just an interesting discussion topic these days, especially with what Atlanta just went through and already rumors of another storm on the horizon! Complex issue to think about.

 

 

If they go raid the local grocery store prematurely, well, that's not the fault of the person who posted the map on Facebook.

 

If they grab up all the pizza & beer, then it is their fault! There's no convincing me otherwise :D
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just read this interesting article about long range models and social media. I for one could care less what people do with a bs euro snow map. But this author has some great points on why we should care...

http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it is better for folks to be prepared than caught off-guard. I bet the folks in Atlanta wish they knew snow was coming and stayed home from work and school Tuesday. And maybe this isn't snow, but it looks like it could be ice. The important thing is there could be a big storm next week, whether snow or ice, and people should be following it. It's almost as if on here people are not happy because it isn't snow so they don't care about it. Even though some places do show snow and then ice on the Euro. The important thing isn't that the Euro is wrong in showing all the snow but that there could be a big storm next weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just read this interesting article about long range models and social media. I for one could care less what people do with a bs euro snow map. But this author has some great points on why we should care...

http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html

 

 

Good read -- thanks for posting! Exactly summarizes my opinion about it, and brings up some points I hadn't considered before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We gonna talk about Facebook and false snow maps or the new run of the GFS?

Well since this is the banter thread -- in case you missed it -- the new run of the GFS is in the discussion thread, so you should probably check over there :whistle:  (just messin' with you btw)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just read this interesting article about long range models and social media. I for one could care less what people do with a bs euro snow map. But this author has some great points on why we should care...

http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html

 

 

Good post, Strong.  Thanks for the article.  I hear the author, but I'm still not convinced that it's really a big deal.  It might be a headache for the NWS mets, but we all have different headaches with our jobs, and they're constantly changing.  We must learn to adapt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

you're probably right! :lol:

 

Maybe that's the problem: there's no Snopes for weather models ;)

 

Yep -- it's just an interesting discussion topic these days, especially with what Atlanta just went through and already rumors of another storm on the horizon! Complex issue to think about.

 

If they grab up all the pizza & beer, then it is their fault! There's no convincing me otherwise :D

 

Good stuff, JWXnc.  I've enjoyed the friendly debate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well since this is the banter thread -- in case you missed it -- the new run of the GFS is in the discussion thread, so you should probably check over there :whistle: (just messin' with you btw)

It's cool, I just await feedback and analysis on every run! I'm hooked on the chase and ups and downs! I know it's about GFS time and I'm on mobile, I'm ready for the GFS to cave to the euro!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's cool, I just await feedback and analysis on every run! I'm hooked on the chase and ups and downs! I know it's about GFS time and I'm on mobile, I'm ready for the GFS to cave to the euro!

 

Not there yet mackerel...I'm out to hr 153 on my maps so close!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Calc,

 But it is misinformation. The misinformation shouldn't even be distributed to anyone, much less the general public. Because they're very inaccurate, what good does it do for the ignorant general public to see them? It is bad enough when they see accurate info. But inaccurate? Example: Euro clown maps yesterday showed 4" of snow in Savannah that day, which was essentially impossible with 850's well above 0C. How is it good for the largely ignorant general public to see maps showing 4": of snow yesterday when it had no chance to happen? Savannah got no snow whatsoever, which I pretty much expected and as the GFS clown showed..

 

Edit: Now I just read in the other thread that they're circulating maps for next weekend showing ATL getting a huge snow when the model isn't really doing that. OMG, this is really bad! I wish there was a way to outlaw clowns!

 

I saw some maps from that EuroWX site tonight.. I think the guy who wrote the F5Data server/modeling program came up with it.  Anyway, the maps were really freakin' accurate with snowfall through 240 hr.  None of this explosive & ridiculous stuff going on.

 

So it's not just the Euro data itself.  It's the way these people are generating their snow maps judging by just the 32 degree line.

 

Is it really hard to do something like:

if surface temps <= 0c & 850mb temps <= 0.5c then
consider precip as snowfall accumulation
else
if surface temps <= 0c & 850 temps > 0.5c then
consider precip as freezing rain
end if
end if

This is just random pseudocode to make sense; but it's not that hard.  Even I figured out how to script in Grads properly.. which is what a lot of these crap Euro maps are generated on.  I'm appauled that a company who's been around as long as accuweather offering a pro data service is generating the same crap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it is better for folks to be prepared than caught off-guard. I bet the folks in Atlanta wish they knew snow was coming and stayed home from work and school Tuesday.

They had a winter storm watch up for days then they got a winter weather advisory. Then at 3am it was changed to a winter storm warning "BEFORE!!!" the snow started falling. Plenty of time to decide weather to cancel school or not.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They had a winter storm watch up for days then they got a winter weather advisory. Then at 3am it was changed to a winter storm warning "BEFORE!!!" the snow started falling. Plenty of time to decide weather to cancel school or not.

Are you kidding me!!!! These decisions to cancel stuff for the next day have to be made by 9pm the night before, Heck, just with school buses alone some are on the road at 5:30am. Not to metion parents and family jobs, planning, transportation industry. No. You make these all-call decisions the night before. Wake county did it right. Sure wasted an entire day, but didn't get caught like Atlanta. As for the NWS--making the call to WSW in the middle of the night did no good. Having said that, Atlanta should have known better watching the northwest trends and made the call the evening before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

This is a good debate. Lots of people agreeing with each side

I have to side with calc on this one. It's info availible to everyone. How they use it is up to them. I believe eventualy they will figure out how difficult forcasting really is and leave it to to the more educated to tell them whats happening. It's a new toy right now. They will get bored when it doesn't work the way they want it to.

To me the ten day model is alot like trying to name the super bowl champion at the begining of the season. You have some good info but no where near enough to make a call. That does't stop some people from trying though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it is better for folks to be prepared than caught off-guard. I bet the folks in Atlanta wish they knew snow was coming and stayed home from work and school Tuesday. And maybe this isn't snow, but it looks like it could be ice. The important thing is there could be a big storm next week, whether snow or ice, and people should be following it. It's almost as if on here people are not happy because it isn't snow so they don't care about it. Even though some places do show snow and then ice on the Euro. The important thing isn't that the Euro is wrong in showing all the snow but that there could be a big storm next weekend.

 

I think they had a clue, there was a winter storm warning issued at 3 in the morning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you kidding me!!!! These decisions to cancel stuff for the next day have to be made by 9pm the night before, Heck, just with school buses alone some are on the road at 5:30am. Not to metion parents and family jobs, planning, transportation industry. No. You make these all-call decisions the night before. Wake county did it right. Sure wasted an entire day, but didn't get caught like Atlanta. As for the NWS--making the call to WSW in the middle of the night did no good. Having said that, Atlanta should have known better watching the northwest trends and made the call the evening before.

This is not true.  They do not have to make that call by 9pm.  My ex wife was teacher and numerous times we have gotten the call at 430 to 5 in the morning that school was closed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is not true.  They do not have to make that call by 9pm.  My ex wife was teacher and numerous times we have gotten the call at 430 to 5 in the morning that school was closed.

 

Yep this is definitely true here in Cherokee (I'm just a parent but I've seen it happen as well).

 

IMHO Cherokee kind of had an excuse in that we didn't have a warning in place that morning.  The superintendent started sending kids home as soon as he realized we were getting hammered with no warning in in place (it didn't come until hours later, in the afternoon).

 

However, it's like everyone in the metro counties was completely not paying attention to that 3:38am warning they got.  I get the feeling that a lot of them were just like Deal and his guys - from what I saw on the news, more than one of them admitted they had no idea there was even an upgraded storm warning in place until mid-morning, when everyone had already gone to work and school.  I don't know how off-hours notification works for those high up in the school administrations and government offices - maybe they just need a good old fashioned phone tree to wake everyone up and say "look at this". Sad, isn't it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've worked for two school systems in the Atlanta area for the past 25 years. Most systems will wait to make the call early in the AM if things are marginal. 

 

I was posting radar maps at 5:42am letting people know what was imminent and was already letting people know what was going on in Birmingham long before it got here. If I can do it, these people in charge can do it.  

 

There was no surprise except for those with their heads in the sand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I'm having a little trouble with colors here, but I think CMC is showing Ice in N.NC  on this map from 00z last night? correct me if I'm wrong! And a nice snow for our Va. friends!!!

 

I_nw_g1_EST_2014013100_086.png

 

This is the banter thread. What do you think you're doing posting weather related stuff here? :axe:  :ee:    :gun_bandana:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1352Z FRI JAN 31 2014

THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME.

12Z RAOB RECAP..

91348/PNI - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY FROM 886MB TO 850MB; SUPER
             ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
72365/ABQ - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 205 MB TO 200MB SUPER
             ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.
71600/YSA - SHORT TO 463MB..
76256/GYM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM.
76405/LAP - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM.
76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEM.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS IN PLACE

START: 1800Z Thur Jan 30 2014
END:   0000Z Tue  Feb 04 2014

REASON FOR THE SUPER BOWL



SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1352Z FRI JAN 31 2014

THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME.

12Z RAOB RECAP..

91348/PNI - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY FROM 886MB TO 850MB; SUPER

             ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE

72365/ABQ - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 205 MB TO 200MB SUPER

             ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.

71600/YSA - SHORT TO 463MB..

76256/GYM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM.

76405/LAP - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM.

76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEM.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS IN PLACE

START: 1800Z Thur Jan 30 2014

END:   0000Z Tue  Feb 04 2014

REASON FOR THE SUPER BOWL

SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

so the model  run has the flu. !!!!!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can't hide information from people.  I see no problem with letting information out.  It is now up to the individual consumer what they choose to do with it.  The Euro snow maps are not some super-classified, government secret that only those with high-level clearance are allowed to see.  If people want to go crazy with this information, then let them.  It's their choice.  Others might choose to educate themselves and see what the map really means and how it's created.  That would be a great thing for our weather hobby/devotion/addiction that we all share on this board.  So, I must respectfully disagree with you on this, Larry.

Agree, so all of a sudden the people posting on this board are the "experts?"  Folks on here discuss soundings and Meteostar 7-10 days out like they're facts; mood swiings are wild; it's gonna snow, no it's gonna ice; no it's a torch.  Witness the "discussion" amongst red-taggers leading up to the even this week; they were "discussing" the validity of short-term models.  And "discussing" is a nice word. 

 

The weather is what it is; a more involved and interested public is good; there's so much information out there those who think they are more knowledgable can help educate the rest of us.  Hold public and appointed officials feet to the fire; if everybody sees it coming and they bury their heads in the sand then there will be repercussions.  Nobody here has a firm handle on what's going to happen so I have to chuckle when they think this is their little toy and nobody else can see it or use it. 

 

The more the merrier and when the next one hits hopefully more are prepared. 

 

And to the school bus issue; anybody who says schools have to make decisions at 9pm the night before really doesn't have a clue; they can make the call as late as when the busses start to roll in the morning.  Sure they'd like to do it a bit sooner but if a warning comes out @ 3:45am they can pull the trigger and cancel school.  They'd like to get the word sooner rather than later but 3:45am gave them plenty of time; Fulton Schools were idiots for having a full day; there's zero excuse for that stupid decision.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...