Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The way I see it, the Euro clown maps are essentially totally ignoring the temperatures above two meters. They see 32 or less at two meters and assume 100% snow throughout the event. These maps should be eliminated. Programming an algorithm to fix it isn't too hard.. the problem is the models sometimes limit you on doing so with their various parameteres etc. A real solution is to get rid of snow accumulation maps all together and rely on everyone to use soundings. Better said than done with that euro hype wagon going on. The EPS mean was off 2-3 inches in mby.. while the gfs (although slower grabbing the last storm at the end) was almost dead on for many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2003/23Jan_Snow/23January2003.pdf One of my favorite storms. Seems like it was a challenging forecast. That one was supposed to be your typical NW Flow, "maybe" snow outside the mountains deal. Luckily I made a sacrifice to the snow gods the night before and that low coming up from upstate SC bombed out over MBY. Lee trough at it's best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Guys, that map that Brad posted clearly says "NOT A FORECAST" on it. In no way is he saying that snowstorm is going to come about. I don't see what the big deal really is. Again, in my opinion, individuals should be responsible for their own emotions and how they choose to respond to and what they choose to do with any information they acquire. If they read carefully, they should see that there is nothing to get too excited about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Posted this in the storm thread but wanted to stick it in here for posterity. Current obs imby (sensor is @ 2M) -2.2°. Jan 2014 now has the 3 coldest temps at my house since I moved here on 03/01/2003. -2.3°, -2.2°, & 0.1°. A historic month for cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm glad other people are talking about it. I tried to mention it in the pattern thread without calling him out too bad. IMO Brad P. caught the hype bug. I'm not saying he's a bad met, he's really good, love his videos and forecasts...but 1,236 shares, that's what he posted that map for, the shares. Personally I don't agree with that first statement. If you follow Brad he posts these things a lot and does a good job of not hyping it. In fact he was one the more conservative mets out there. The fact is A LOT of mets are interested in that time period and now it's looking more and more like some sort of winter storm is probably going to happen around there. Now as for the second you're probably right, but that blame can be shared. I'm sure he has a lot of pressure on WCNC and himself to get his name out there. It's marketing and unfortunately as long as TV networks make their money off of commercials the pressure is on to get as many eyeballs to you as possible. When you're a celebrity you give the people what they want. JB is a perfect example of someone in science turning into a celebrity which creates a machine that has to be fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In brads defense, the 0z ensembles are much more bullish on snow for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 100% agree on the first bold statement. To the second statement, Brad = social media genius (IMO) He has done it the right way since coming to the QC. But like Calculus stated, it is up to everyone to leave your emotions at the door. Personally I don't agree with that first statement. If you follow Brad he posts these things a lot and does a good job of not hyping it. In fact he was one the more conservative mets out there. The fact is A LOT of mets are interested in that time period and now it's looking more and more like some sort of winter storm is probably going to happen around there. Now as for the second you're probably right, but that blame can be shared. I'm sure he has a lot of pressure on WCNC and himself to get his name out there. It's marketing and unfortunately as long as TV networks make their money off of commercials the pressure is on to get as many eyeballs to you as possible. When you're a celebrity you give the people what they want. JB is a perfect example of someone in science turning into a celebrity which creates a machine that has to be fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its hard to believe with fresh snow on the ground the chatter of possible winter ev.ents is on the horizon in the discussion thread.. I'm planning on going skiing the middle of febuary. Any suggestion as where to go.. ill have my wife and son to so id like to go to a good family oriented place... thanks in advance for the suggestions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Personally I don't agree with that first statement. If you follow Brad he posts these things a lot and does a good job of not hyping it. In fact he was one the more conservative mets out there. The fact is A LOT of mets are interested in that time period and now it's looking more and more like some sort of winter storm is probably going to happen around there. Now as for the second you're probably right, but that blame can be shared. I'm sure he has a lot of pressure on WCNC and himself to get his name out there. It's marketing and unfortunately as long as TV networks make their money off of commercials the pressure is on to get as many eyeballs to you as possible. When you're a celebrity you give the people what they want. JB is a perfect example of someone in science turning into a celebrity which creates a machine that has to be fed. I do follow brad, haha. I agree with you, he is a conservative met, which is why he made that ensemble blog post...That's why I said he "caught" the bug, as if it happened overnight. In no way do I think he's a hype machine and I don't hate him or anything for posting a clown map I was just surprised by it like some were, given the support at the time by the model. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Clearly we suck at getting winter weather. I have learned several things about getting winter weather in Waycross. 1. Never look at TWC forecast for winter weather. A lot of folks down here were very disappointed they didn't see snow. 2. Never use the NAM for 2m temp or if you do, add 5 degrees to whatever it's showing. 3 . GFS is the same way. 4. If the NWS extends the winter storm warning 4 times, it's not going to snow. 5. 33 and rain is super disappointing and and is what you will always see in Waycross if you are trying to transition from rain. 6. Two degrees colder we would have had a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its hard to believe with fresh snow on the ground the chatter of possible winter ev.ents is on the horizon in the discussion thread.. I'm planning on going skiing the middle of febuary. Any suggestion as where to go.. ill have my wife and son to so id like to go to a good family oriented place... thanks in advance for the suggestions Well, Alta/Snowbird if you are planning on jumping on a plane. If not (I assume you aren't planning on flying out west) Snowshoe not only has the best skiing, but it has the best feel, dining, other activities, etc. If you want somewhere to stay a few days in NC I think Beech is much better than anywhere else. The town has a nice ski village feel. I like the skiing at Sugar a little better but it is a ski slope with some chalets and condos stuck on it. There are no real dining or shopping options at the Lodge so you have to drive a decent way for anything other than skiing. Sugar does have tubing which is something, although it's only really fun for about an hour so you could always just drive over there one evening and do that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Clearly we suck at getting winter weather. I have learned several things about getting winter weather in Waycross. 1. Never look at TWC forecast for winter weather. A lot of folks down here were very disappointed they didn't see snow. 2. Never use the NAM for 2m temp or if you do, add 5 degrees to whatever it's showing. 3 . GFS is the same way. 4. If the NWS extends the winter storm warning 4 times, it's not going to snow. 5. 33 and rain is super disappointing and and is what you will always see in Waycross if you are trying to transition from rain. 6. Two degrees colder we would have had a great storm. You almost live in Florida. You should thank your lucky stars you saw any sleet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its hard to believe with fresh snow on the ground the chatter of possible winter ev.ents is on the horizon in the discussion thread.. I'm planning on going skiing the middle of febuary. Any suggestion as where to go.. ill have my wife and son to so id like to go to a good family oriented place... thanks in advance for the suggestions If you can afford it I'd highly suggest Snowshoe in WV. lots of trails, snow mobiling, and little village at the top you can walk around and shop and eat. You are almost guaranteed to see a bunch of snow up there right now. Personally it is my favorite place to go outside of SkiBeech in NC. Edit: I see Dunkman and I think alike in this area... def go to Snowshoe if you can, it is by far the best overall experience within driving distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well, Alta/Snowbird if you are planning on jumping on a plane. If not (I assume you aren't planning on flying out west) Snowshoe not only has the best skiing, but it has the best feel, dining, other activities, etc. If you want somewhere to stay a few days in NC I think Beech is much better than anywhere else. The town has a nice ski village feel. I like the skiing at Sugar a little better but it is a ski slope with some chalets and condos stuck on it. There are no real dining or shopping options at the Lodge so you have to drive a decent way for anything other than skiing. Sugar does have tubing which is something, although it's only really fun for about an hour so you could always just drive over there one evening and do that anyway. Thanks a lot, I've been thinking about snowshoe which is a little further drive but from what I seen on the web its got a lot of slopes to choose from. id rather make a decision based on some ones personal experience instead of just picking a spot at random... thanks once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks a lot, I've been thinking about snowshoe which is a little further drive but from what I seen on the web its got a lot of slopes to choose from. id rather make a decision based on some ones personal experience instead of just picking a spot at random... thanks once again I was just at Snowshoe last week and we had a great time. Tons of snow (20" the 5 days we were there including 16" in one day) with great skiing and lots of other fun stuff to do. The one thing I'd caution you on is the cold. The resort is at the top of the mountain and it can be very cold and is almost always windy. 2 of the 4 nights we were there had lows below -10 with wind chills below -30. Aside from the first day we arrived, the temps never made it out of the low teens and 2 of the days the highs were in low single digits. It was during a cold snap so I certainly don't think that is the norm, but it's not like mid February is looking to be warm right now. To stay outside for several hours at a time in that weather you need a substantial amount of pretty good gear...just something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You almost live in Florida. You should thank your lucky stars you saw any sleet at all.Lol yeah. But Florida had a lot! We did have a little accumulation of ice on the roofs, because not it is melting everywhere. It looks like we just had a downpour with all the dripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Found out only 3 folks came to my office yesterday. What was the purpose of even being open? Especially when there is 16 hours of incliment weather time put in the budget every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If you give a a cookie (the snowfall from this storm) they're going to ask for milk (the storm showing up outside 200 hours on the models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If you give a a cookie (the snowfall from this storm) they're going to ask for milk (the storm showing up outside 200 hours on the models). I want a big one. The other day was just the opening act. I want to see the superstar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The pattern might not favor us in east nc but for snow chasers like me with this upcoming pattern I got a feeling there are good times a head... ill take a chance with marginal temps and an active southern jet any day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I want a big one. The other day was just the opening act. I want to see the superstar now. Considering the fast progressive nature of the Northern stream without any sustainable blocking we did damn good to get what we got. A big snow of 8-10" or more this year is hard to accomplish so every one may just have to make due with the nickel and dimes. You almost live in Florida. You should thank your lucky stars you saw any sleet at all. Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like we might have a few more winter events to follow in February. It's been a long time since we have had a winter with multiple events. Ever since 2000 we have either had one or two events or nothing at all. This winter might be one like I remember we had more often in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In the pattern thread there has been some discussion about a PD1 storm versus a PD2 storm? Can someone explain the difference? TIA. PD1 and PD2 are terms really more geared toward the Mid-Atlantic and New England, but both storms impacted the southeast. PD1 (Feb 18-19, 1979) was a top 5 all-time winter storm for the southeast as a whole. It was one of the coldest storms on record (since late 1800's) with heavy snow and ice throughout a large portion of the southeast. PD2 (Feb 15-17, 2003) was a significant sleet storm for the damming areas of NC, but nowhere near the winter storm that PD1 was in the southeast http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2003/23Jan_Snow/23January2003.pdf One of my favorite storms. Seems like it was a challenging forecast. This was actually a different storm and not PD1 or PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 PD1 and PD2 are terms really more geared toward the Mid-Atlantic and New England, but both storms impacted the southeast. PD1 (Feb 18-19, 1979) was a top 5 all-time winter storm for the southeast as a whole. It was one of the coldest storms on record (since late 1800's) with heavy snow and ice throughout a large portion of the southeast. PD2 (Feb 15-17, 2003) was a significant sleet storm for the damming areas of NC, but nowhere near the winter storm that PD1 was in the southeast This was actually a different storm and not PD1 or PD2 For ATL: PD1 was the great sleet storm of 2/17-8/1979, with 4.2" of mainly IP from ~1.53" of liquid equivalent. Keep in mind that 4" of sleet was equivalent to something like 12+" of snow in this case and with as much if not more impact than 12" of snow. It just doesn't look as deep and doesn't stick to trees, etc. Just think of it as an extremely dense version of 12" of snow. Also, it was well below freezing with temp.'s in the 21-28 range for much of it and getting colder as it went along. So, it was one of the greatest storms in ATL history in its own way. Aside: Back in 1979, it wasn't even known as PD as that term arose in the 1980's. It was called Washington's Birthday. So, I guess 2/1979 was really the WB storm? PD2 was nothing in ATL. No wintry at all. As Grit suggested, that term is geared toward the NE US. not the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This was just shared to me via facebook, someone tagged me asking how likely this was. This is what I'm talking about. Ridiculous and out of control hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ^ It's only going to get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like we might have a few more winter events to follow in February. It's been a long time since we have had a winter with multiple events. Ever since 2000 we have either had one or two events or nothing at all. This winter might be one like I remember we had more often in the 80s.Dude where were you in 2009/10 and 2010/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWXnc Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Guys, that map that Brad posted clearly says "NOT A FORECAST" on it. In no way is he saying that snowstorm is going to come about. I don't see what the big deal really is. Again, in my opinion, individuals should be responsible for their own emotions and how they choose to respond to and what they choose to do with any information they acquire. If they read carefully, they should see that there is nothing to get too excited about yet. I completely agree with you. Well, not completely... to me, it's all about the audience. Yes, he said not a forecast... folks (like many people here) with an above average understanding of meteorology know that. Your average facebook/twitter/social media user does NOT know that. Average social media users don't know or care about the difference between a model and a forecast. They only see a map that shows feet of snow, click share, and boom. Like the screenshot Jon just posted, "...are predicting 30+ inches of snow". A picture is worth a thousand words, yet in cases like this, the words are much more important to read than looking at a picture showing model snow forecast down to the tenth of an inch for over a week out that changes every few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ^ It's only going to get worse.It can't be any worse than the ice storm discussion 9+ days out in the Winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It can't be any worse than the ice storm discussion 9+ days out in the Winter thread. I meant hyping to the general public. Discussing a LR threat on a weather board is a different thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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