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January Banter

Isopycnic

By Isopycnic,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Its amazing at the hype already on FB about next weeks potential and euro maps to go with it.

Kinda of foolish if ya ask me.

I agree! Only we should be allowed to talk about threats 8-10 days away! Everyone is just hyper sensitive about yesterday's event and looking for the next big snowjam! Let them live with the letdown of it not happening after following it for a week; something we know all too much about! :)
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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

So, Jim Cantore took out a photo/video-bomber during his live broadcast from the College of Charleston. Don't mess with Jim!  :rambo:

 

https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/93FD644C691040072477822824448_19e77ff62e0.4.7.5652527242263089304_hQ4Hto8X8Di.guxdtZisA2z1.OMsUETXhiSknSDTJOYn7jsF6Ydi2R_aa5obDrdw.mp4?versionId=nDhWhfCbaHDSQS1ch1ThjbXDiEb4Udzy

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted

 

I knew he was an a'hole, but I like that!!!

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

I agree! Only we should be allowed to talk about threats 8-10 days away! Everyone is just hyper sensitive about yesterday's event and looking for the next big snowjam! Let them live with the letdown of it not happening after following it for a week; something we know all too much about! :)

 

 

Right! :lmao:

 

I logged on to FB and seen ECMWF maps floating around on my newsfeed and was like wtf. I don't even have any mets liked on my fb.  I believe there is another a member thats incognito here from person county. 

 

I did ask questions but no reply from them... but I did mention one thing to them. I said you do realize those snow maps are bogus. But I guess they will live and learn about the ups and downs...  well a whole lot of downs when it comes to looking at models like that.

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JWXnc

JWXnc

Posted
Posted
Its amazing at the hype already on FB about next weeks potential and euro maps to go with it.

 

Kinda of foolish if ya ask me.

Agreed -- especially since people who know absolutely nothing about meteorology share it and spread it like wildfire. I already saw the euro snowfall map for the feb 7-9 timeframe in my news feed earlier today from a friend's 55 year old mom, accompanied with "we are going to get 14.7 inches next week!!!"

Though the euro map I saw on my news feed today was originated by Brad Panovich, which sort of shocked me (I expect to see hype maps like that from people like DT, not a respected TV met). Other than hype, what benefit does posting a snow map showing feet of snow 8+ days out add -- why isn't a simple text-only status saying "we are watching the potential for another snow event next week" enough? Not calling Brad out or anything, just a tad bit surprised to see that today and how fast it is spreading.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Agreed -- especially since people who know absolutely nothing about meteorology share it and spread it like wildfire. I already saw the euro snowfall map for the feb 7-9 timeframe in my news feed earlier today from a friend's 55 year old mom, accompanied with "we are going to get 14.7 inches next week!!!" Though the euro map I saw on my news feed today was originated by Brad Panovich, which sort of shocked me (I expect to see hype maps like that from people like DT, not a respected TV met). Other than hype, what benefit does posting a snow map showing feet of snow 8+ days out add -- why isn't a simple text-only status saying "we are watching the potential for another snow event next week" enough? Not calling Brad out or anything, just a tad bit surprised to see that today and how fast it is spreading.

 

Exactly :clap:

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GAdawg

GAdawg

Posted
Posted

I have not read through all the banter post and someone might have already stated this so sorry if it is a repeat.  Just relized that on 1/11 there were terrible storms here.  We had one crack of thunder that made pictures fall off the wall.  It was exactly 10 days before this storm hit the area.   Just thought it was interesting and it backs up the old wise tale. B)

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

People who don't even follow weather are spreading Euro snowfall maps now?  LOL, what is this world coming to?  I'd never post anything like that on Facebook because I don't want to look like an idiot when it doesn't verify.  :violin:

 

 

Honestly I dont know! If  its some kind of weather man wannabe or what.

 

But who ever it is I busted some bubbles tonight. Told them that map is BS chances are it isn't going to snow but looks more likely that its going to be a freezing rain threat then snow.... it went quiet quick. The crickets have stop chirping.

 

 

Lol. I don't know if its one or many idiots but obviously some local dumbasses  :axe:

 

 

Who would have ever thought over 1700 would be following a bunch of Morons like us. We love it tho. Are numbers are out and we are hotter and fresher than Amish Loaf Bread

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Hada fun day with the kids in the snow today. The office opened at 10 but I stayed home. Someone told me she had to drive all the way down Capital Blvd using four wheel drive,and that is where my office is. So I am not sure why we have 16 hours of incliment weather time in the budget at work if they refuse to use it. 40 and 540 might be clear, but Caapital is a major road and it sounds like it was still a mess.

Was glad to see the snow we got. Was hoping for the higher end and 6 inches but maybe next time. Sounds like February could be stormy.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I agree! Only we should be allowed to talk about threats 8-10 days away! Everyone is just hyper sensitive about yesterday's event and looking for the next big snowjam! Let them live with the letdown of it not happening after following it for a week; something we know all too much about! :)

I post the maps on my feed and just say something to watch. I like to spread around the disappointment when it doesn't happen. My friends have actually started to expect me to post the maps now.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

People who don't even follow weather are spreading Euro snowfall maps now?  LOL, what is this world coming to?  I'd never post anything like that on Facebook because I don't want to look like an idiot when it doesn't verify.  :violin:

 

I have confidence in you.  I'm pretty sure you could look like an idiot even if it did verify.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I'm glad other people are talking about it. I tried to mention it in the pattern thread without calling him out too bad. IMO Brad P. caught the hype bug. I'm not saying he's a bad met, he's really good, love his videos and forecasts...but 1,236 shares, that's what he posted that map for, the shares.

 

I don't know man, posting a 228hr clown map from WxBell which has a sketchy algorithm anyway (or so people say), with borderline temps on the OP (Seriously doubt that's snow for the most part) AND the models own ensembles don't support the temps shown to even produce a mix (ensembles much warmer at the surface, like 10-20 degrees)....he talks about ensemble forecasting, makes a huge blog post about the importance of forecasting with ensembles, then he goes and shares this and hardly mentioned the ensembles (says 30% have some snow...ok, most are a trace. 16% have 2" or more, something like that).

 

If he posted "ensembe mean is barely 2" but the OP gives us 8" people probably wouldn't like it so much. Now that the 12z ensembles came out, guess what they look like? Do they support the storm? No. Barely reaching 1.5" snow at 240hrs for CLT, OP has close to 7. If it wasn't for that single 9" ensemble member that somehow jumps from about 2" to 9" in 12 hours, that ensemble mean would be lower than 1".

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro lose the storm for the Carolinas. Looks like  TN valley type event limited to cad regions anyway, if that. Social media is ridiculous these days and a little bit much to be honest. Now it's a race who can be the first to post a ridiculous model output. Saw one page post a control run snowfall output with 30" over NYC for the superbowl to get shares. Sigh.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

 

 

I don't know man, posting a 228hr clown map from WxBell which has a sketchy algorithm anyway (or so people say), with borderline temps on the OP (Seriously doubt that's snow for the most part) AND the models own ensembles don't support the temps shown to even produce a mix (ensembles much warmer at the surface, like 10-20 degrees)

 

The maps are screwed up on "Total Snowfall Accumulation" vs "Total Snowfall/ Snow Accumulation".  That's what I learned recently.

 

The total snowfall accumulation maps basically count any precip that could possible be frozen; even ZR.  Of course; thouse are the first ones people click and put out there with their ridiculous false snow totals.

 

Not hard to show a .10t-30th of an inch or ZR as snow for huge snow totals on those maps even at 10:1

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JWXnc

JWXnc

Posted
Posted

I'm glad other people are talking about it. I tried to mention it in the pattern thread without calling him out too bad. IMO Brad P. caught the hype bug. I'm not saying he's a bad met, he's really good, love his videos and forecasts...but 1,236 shares, that's what he posted that map for, the shares...

 

That's the interesting part about it, to me. People Weenies often share extreme model output stuff from DT and other (questionable) people who don't really have a public presence, so I think more people take those shared posts with suspicion. Most people don't know who these people are, they don't know whether to trust or not to trust. Part of my shock today is that a well-respected TV met is who originated that euro map post (based on my timeline). I dare say most people "trust" TV mets, because you basically welcome the mets into your home every single day at dinner, at bedtime, whenever. TV mets are the public-facing weather authorities, which increases the met's credibility and people's trust and willingness to share/repost.

 

Now, the people in my newsfeed who shared that story have no clue who this random TV met is -- they just know he is a TV meteorologist, so that gives him credibility. The problem with social media is that he might have only intended it for his local area/followers since it didn't really show a HUGE hit for his area, but it gets picked up and spread across the east coast by people who saw that the model showed feet of snow in their backyard. Now, the WRAL and other local mets are the ones who are going to have people hounding them with messages like "well this one guy said x-y-z" or "this guy showed this model forecast from 3 days ago, have you seen this?"

 

It's an interesting situation to think about. At some point, does it become unprofessional? Irresponsible?  I'm not trying to bash Brad or anything, I just find the situation (a TV met sort of starting some hype) very interesting to think about/debate/discuss.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The maps are screwed up on "Total Snowfall Accumulation" vs "Total Snowfall/ Snow Accumulation".  That's what I learned recently.

 

The total snowfall accumulation maps basically count any precip that could possible be frozen; even ZR.  Of course; thouse are the first ones people click and put out there with their ridiculous false snow totals.

 

Not hard to show a .10th of an inch or ZR as snow for huge snow totals on those maps.

 

 The way I see it, the Euro clown maps are essentially totally ignoring the temperatures above two meters. They see 32 or less at two meters and assume 100% snow throughout the event. These maps should be eliminated.

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