fury88 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ok I just hopped back on after taking a shower and Weather Underground upped their forecast to 5-8 inches in my area from 3-5. What happened in the last hour? New model run I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't see myself being too productive at work today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Don't think 5 inches vs. 4 inches is going to look too silly. Better to play it safe, though I'm not sure how that makes it's safe. If I get 4 inches, I wont complain. They are only calling for 1-3. Models are getting bullish and the light returns in the foothills and NW piedmont are covering the roads, so I'm getting pretty excited! on a related note......IT'S SLEETING AT TONY'S HOUSE!!!! He has been calling for that for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm feeling good about this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The southern upstate of SC stays in that snow zone for what, 7 or 8 hours? We in the northern upstate (I'm intentionally not using I-85 as a reference point jburns) stay in it maybe 3 or 4 hours - losing an hour to saturate. That is still better than the coastal hugger we've watched most of the last week. Of course, I'm hanging all of this on the HI RES 4K, so yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You know it's a storm when folks are complaining about virga overhead that just 18 hours ago wasn't even on any simulated radar. Ha, yeah. I don't remember any of the simulated radars having the virga overhead at 8am in Atlanta. Might be the difference between 2" and 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Don't think 5 inches vs. 4 inches is going to look too silly. Better to play it safe, though I'm not sure how that makes it's safe. The thought was to keep warning/advisory level accumulations while allowing the saturation issue to play out. Local research suggests between .1 and .2 inches (.15 being middle ground obviously) to saturate an airmass like this. The forecasters are also aware this is not always the case, but again a conservative approach was taken until things become a bit more clear. I don't think anyone would complain if the afternoon update reflects higher accumulations in warranted, while the advisory/warning map stays the same. As a positive there was a report from GSO that the runway ground temp is around 24/25 degrees, so as soon as it starts falling it starts sticking. This is reflected in webcams from areas around Forsyth County where it has started snowing. Also, as many have pointed out, it looks like a dew point depression of around 10 degrees or even more is adequate for moisture to reach the surface. Hopefully the dry layer (which starts around 850mb) will saturate easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The southern upstate of SC stays in that snow zone for what, 7 or 8 hours? We in the northern upstate (I'm intentionally not using I-85 as a reference point jburns) stay in it maybe 3 or 4 hours - losing an hour to saturate. That is still better than the coastal hugger we've watched most of the last week. Of course, I'm hanging all of this on the HI RES 4K, so yeah... Will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out. Remember February when you got 3" and I got a heavy heavy dusting just one county over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's going to be maddening watching the radar and trying to will/wish/scream at the blob to move a bit north of 85 to get us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out. Remember February when you got 3" and I got a heavy heavy dusting just one county over? Oh yeah - that's why I'm not as frustrated as most of the upstate about not having a good snow in 3 years. That was a surprise to me - I thought we were surely too far west. And it was really localized too. My sister who lives just 2 miles west of me had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's going to be maddening watching the radar and trying to will/wish/scream at the blob to move a bit north of 85 to get us.. I love the Intellicast radar. It's horrible because it shows all kinds of returns when there's nothing falling. But I still get excited watching the virga storm develop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I love the Intellicast radar. It's horrible because it shows all kinds of returns when there's nothing falling. But I still get excited watching the virga storm develop! With air this dry, at least we know it's working it's way to the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The thought was to keep warning/advisory level accumulations while allowing the saturation issue to play out. Local research suggests between .1 and .2 inches (.15 being middle ground obviously) to saturate an airmass like this. The forecasters are also aware this is not always the case, but again a conservative approach was taken until things become a bit more clear. I don't think anyone would complain if the afternoon update reflects higher accumulations in warranted, while the advisory/warning map stays the same. As a positive there was a report from GSO that the runway ground temp is around 24/25 degrees, so as soon as it starts falling it starts sticking. This is reflected in webcams from areas around Forsyth County where it has started snowing. Also, as many have pointed out, it looks like a dew point depression of around 10 degrees or even more is adequate for moisture to reach the surface. Hopefully the dry layer (which starts around 850mb) will saturate easily. Thanks. I'm still shocked my back yard is only under an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh yeah - that's why I'm not as frustrated as most of the upstate about not having a good snow in 3 years. That was a surprise to me - I thought we were surely too far west. And it was really localized too. My sister who lives just 2 miles west of me had nothing. I've been going to school here for a year and a half and the climate is still tough to figure out. Speaking of climates, might drive to Paris Mountain which is about five minutes from Furman and is over 2000' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've been going to school here for a year and a half and the climate is still tough to figure out. Speaking of climates, might drive to Paris Mountain which is about five minutes from Furman and is over 2000' elevation. It is a challenge to forecast here. Take your camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Watching ATL traffic camera's; going to be entertaining when it starts; I-185 N of Columbus closed @ mm35; reports from AL of issues on I-65; numerous cars in ditches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks. I'm still shocked my back yard is only under an advisory. Same here since recent trends have been suggesting atleast the potential for WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow at the RAP! If that trend continues, snowfall forecasts are going to have to be markedly increased, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So when exactly does Packbacker start eating a pair of shorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Same here since recent trends have been suggesting atleast the potential for WSW criteria. Evidently CLT is now under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow at the RAP! If that trend continues, snowfall forecasts are going to have to be markedly increased, I would think. I refuse to let myself believe those RAP totals but I'm loving the trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not here still under WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 First winter I'm gone to Asheville and my hometown of Clayton is getting several inches of snow with a foot still possible is absolutely heartbreaking to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That rap is starting to look as good as the wraps at Bojangles! Nice and Juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Evidently CLT is now under a warning. I take that back. Guess GSP feels there is still plenty of time to warn people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm more excited to see the snow start falling than a 12-year-old girl at a Justin Bieber concert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I saw this on twitter awhile ago. You don't see snow in Alabama everyday. https://twitter.com/NoahChappellWX/status/428187941353955330/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So when exactly does Packbacker start eating a pair of shorts? Yepp ...was wondering that same thing...good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm more excited to see the snow start falling than a 12-year-old girl at a Justin Bieber concert. I'm still worried about a little more warming aloft than we've been expecting. The WRAL post about Fayetteville is somewhat concerning. They're not that far away. Plus, a devloping low in western NC would not be ideal for cooling the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.