IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like 4-6" of snow is a very good bet for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you live NW of I-95 I would expect a high end advisory total. Eastern areas will do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like 4-6" of snow is a very good bet for NYC. as per the NWS, from their AFD..ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...PROB OF A 4-8 INCH SNOWFALL IS AROUND 50 PCT...THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. Fifty fifty probabilty! We really love this stuff to be following the models for all these days when it can be all for naught. Let's hope not and the coastal storm tracks closer to NYC rather than out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you live NW of I-95 I would expect a high end advisory total. Eastern areas will do better.This I can agree with.... with that said it's kind of unreal that there is this much uncertainty this close in. Everything at H5 has looked a bit better tonight. That's all I can say for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This I can agree with.... with that said it's kind of unreal that there is this much uncertainty this close in. Everything at H5 has looked a bit better tonight. That's all I can say for certain. if you hang around these boards long enough you'll realize that this model waffling is par for the course. Rarely do models get locked in more than a day or two before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 3z SREFs continue to look better. Primary is closed off at 42, as opposed to attached to the low over the Atlantic at the same time on the 21z run. Precip also seems to be a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 3z SREFs continue to look better. Primary is closed off at 42, as opposed to attached to the low over the Atlantic at the same time on the 21z run. Precip also seems to be a bit higher. Those runs which take in 0z NAM data...not convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yea...but in what situation would you ever use them in going by that logic? if the individual members all show big hits (just for example) it at least gives the 0z nam some credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 3z SREFs continue to look better. Primary is closed off at 42, as opposed to attached to the low over the Atlantic at the same time on the 21z run. Precip also seems to be a bit higher. I like your avatar. I think the 00Z NAM has something to do with the 03Z SREF's output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm tired of this model crap. Nam had the least amount of qpf yesterday so it was wrong because it's a short range model. Now it has the most amount so it's wrong because it's overdone. i'll simplify this for you: the NAM is wrong because it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone have the Euro Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS ENS members are not as impressive as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 any news on the 6z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Digging more through hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nam is even better than 00z, goes negative @45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 any news on the 6z NAM? Looks to be better than the 0z NAM. Looks to be more consolidated and digging more at 500mb though 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Heavy snow commencing at hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is QPF bomb compared to the other models.... it has some warming issues though 850 gets onto li before the heavy precip but then crashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The euro ensembles look similar to the OP. The control looks NE of the OP. Neither look great. Maybe someone else can give better details if they aren't using weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow. I have to agree with the Nams depiction based off the latest WV Imagery. Thing Thing Will Dig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6z NAM is another bomb. Lol. This run may have even more qpf and snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 L EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES =============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. =============================================== ...STRONG COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOW IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK THE MODELS HAD CONVERGED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION BEGINNING WITH THE 31/12Z CYCLE. A STRONG MAJORITY OF 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 00Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE GROWING OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH CENTERS AROUND THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THE 00Z GFS TRENDED JUST VERY SLIGHTLY DEEPER...AND BOTH THE NAM/GFS INTRODUCE A CLOSED 700 MB CONTOUR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT 03/12Z. ON THE LARGE SCALE THE 00Z NAM MATCHED CONSENSUS THROUGH 03/12Z...DURING THE PERIOD OF MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM. IT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...AND APPEARS MUCH LESS RELIABLE BY 04/00Z. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE NAM SOLUTION THAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...IS THE LOW PRESSURE IT INDUCES OVER VIRGINIA AROUND 03/00Z TO 03/06Z...BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT BUT AHEAD OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS. THIS IDEA IS PLAUSIBLE...BUT MAY BE OVERLY EMPHASIZED BY THE NAM. A FIVE MEMBER CLUSTER OF SREF SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS THE IDEA...BUT WITH LESSER DEPTH TO THE SURFACE LOW. ON DAY 3 THE NAM PREDICTS VERY RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT SECTION. THIS LEADS TO FLATTENING AND RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Heavy Snow At HR 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 forgot to make a new thread Continue in here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42223-06z-model-discussion-january-2-3-winter-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The NAM is on its own with the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6z NAM has 1"+ of precip for the entire area.. That model is a disaster smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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