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01/02/14 to 01/03/14 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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even 10:1 that's 6-8 inches but likely 12-15:1 at the height so I would say 8-14 inches

The other parts of the equation is how long and hard (mesoscale banding) the snow will be falling.   The longer we stay under the bands the more that will pile up.   If we believe the computer models that storm is fast moving (progressive) the snowstorm winds down in twelve hours so 6-10 inches was an initial good ballpark figure.  Nowcasting now could bump this forecast up at the next update.

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Looks less in north west jersey, no?

Have not looked at specific LE outputs but suspect the LE will be lower in NW NJ than areas to the east and SE but ratios, on average will probably run a little higher up this way or at least get to higher ratio quicker than areas to the SE. That should somewhat counter the lower LE we likely receive. Hard to favor a jackpot area but I lean slightly to east central NJ & LI.

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Its that darn CT rivery valley dry nose again...it always advects down through ERN NJ and NYC when these storms start...sometimes worse than others but you clearly can see it on radar now...the band over Monmouth Co may be enhancing it too with increased subsidence occurring north of it...won't last long though

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