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Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I wanted to start a thread for the Arctic cold potential from Friday into Saturday. Raw model

output has been suggesting that we have a chance to dip to 5 degrees or lower in NYC

which would be the first time since 2005. We'll have to monitor later runs for specifics on how 

long the N to NNW winds stay up Friday night draining cold air down the Hudson Valley.

 

 

Annual low temperatures at Central Park since 1950:

 

Year....Annual Minimum Temperature

2013...11
2012...13
2011...6
2010..13
2009...6
2008..10
2007...8
2006...15
2005...5
2004...1
2003..7
2002..19
2001...16
2000...3
1999...9
1998...14
1997...4
1996...5
1995...6
1994...-2
1993...7
1992...11
1991...10
1990...7
1989...6
1988...5
1987...4
1986...8
1985...-2
1984...8
1983..4
1982...0
1981...2
1980...-1
1979...0
1978...10
1977...-2
1976...-1
1975...15
1974...6
1973...7
1972...5
1971...4
1970...3
1969...11
1968...-1
1967...4
1966...8
1965...9
1964...9
1963...-2
1962....4
1961...-2
1960...8
1959...7
1958...3
1957...0
1956...14
1955...0
1954...7
1953...14
1952...8
1951...8
1950...5
 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted

The 12z GFS has an average low of around 4 degrees this run for NYC Friday night

between the 0 raw output and 9 degree MOS. We'll probably need to get to within

a few days to get a better idea of the exact low potential.

 

Text

 

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_knyc.txt

 

MOS

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/NY.MRF.htm

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS has an average low of around 4 degrees this run for NYC Friday night

between the 0 raw output and 9 degree MOS. We'll probably need to get to within

a few days to get a better idea of the exact low potential.

 

Text

 

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_knyc.txt

 

MOS

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/NY.MRF.htm

A few inches or more of snowcover would definitely help. If the upcoming storm doesn't work out I don't see many people getting below 10.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Guidance has backed off of the drastic cold somewhat. 0z euro about 10 degrees warmer than 12z yesterday which isn't a surprise with a less amplified system it is now showing. Still should be cold but I'm not sure below zero will be realized in the city. Perhaps next week says the euro after some brief moderation.

Below 0 was a long shot. -10 had no chance of happening. I do think it ends up below +5 though

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Three pieces of information relevant to the upcoming cold:

1. Last day in NYC with a maximum temperature below 20°: January 16, 2009 (High: 16°)

2. Last single-digit reading in NYC: January 24, 2011: 6°

3. Last reading of 5° or below: January 28, 2005: 5°

Single digits are a lock. Good chance of #1 and 3 happening too

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

some NYC cold facts...

Average decade seasonal minimum...

ten yr. ave...
1870's......................................
1880's.......................-0.5
1890's........................2.3
1900's........................3.7
1910's........................1.4
1920's........................3.8
1930's........................4.9
1940's........................4.7
1950's........................6.0
1960's........................4.1
1970's........................5.4
1980's........................4.1
1990's........................6.7
2000's........................9.7
2010's........................9.5
1880-

2009..........................4.3
1980-

2009..........................6.8
........................................................

winters coldest max...total days max below 20...
.since 1947-48 the most days below 20 were in 1981-82 and 1978-79 with six...1993-94 had 5...lowest max is 9 set in 1984-85...alltime lowest max is 2 set in 1917-18...That year also had 12 days with a max below 20...2001-02 had the highest coldest winter max of 31...1952-53 and 1997-98 were 29...
Year..... days max...

2013-14...1....18.........

2012-13...0....20..........
2011-12...0....27..........

2010-11...0....23..........
2009-10...0....20..........
2008-09...1....16..........
2007-08...0....20..........
2006-07...1....18..........
2005-06...0....24..........
2004-05...2....18..........
2003-04...4....15..........
2002-03...1....15..........

2001-02...0....31..........
2000-01...0....25..........
1999-00...1....19..........
1998-99...0....25..........
1997-98...0....29..........
1996-97...1....17..........
1995-96...3....17..........
1994-95...0....20..........
1993-94...5....10..........
1992-93...0....27..........
1991-92...0....23..........
1990-91...0....20..........
1989-90...1....18..........
1988-89...0....20..........
1987-88...1....17..........
1986-87...1....19..........
1985-86...0....22..........
1984-85...1......9..........
1983-84...3....13..........
1982-83...0....21..........
1981-82...6....15..........
1980-81...3....14..........
1979-80...0....21..........
1978-79...6....13..........
1977-78...0....21..........
1976-77...5....12..........
1975-76...2....15..........
1974-75...0....27..........
1973-74...0....22..........
1972-73...1....18..........
1971-72...1....15..........
1970-71...4....12..........
1969-70...3....14..........
1968-69...0....22..........
1967-68...4....13..........
1966-67...1....16..........
1965-66...1....19..........
1964-65...3....16..........
1963-64...0....22..........
1962-63...1....13..........
1961-62...0....24..........
1960-61...2....19..........

1959-60...0....23...........
1958-59...0....22...........
1957-58...2....10...........
1956-57...1....12...........
1955-56...1....18...........
1954-55...1....17...........
1953-54...0....21...........
1952-53...0....29...........
1951-52...0....20...........
1950-51...0....20...........
1949-50...0....22...........
1948-49...0....22...........
1947-48...2....18...........
......................................................................
1942-43...2......8...........
1935-36...4....16...........
1934-35...5....16...........
1933-34...6......8...........
1917-18.12......2...........
.................................................................

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the averages by decade -- I was sitting here doing them in my head.  It was interesting to see in data what I remembered as a kid, that the 80s had their share of very cold days, despite having very little snow here on LI other than the one '83 hit.  Compare with the averages from 93/94 onward.  Seemingly low correlation between minimum low temps and snowy winters, though I'm sure that's not news for the mets.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted

We could see records broken for cold  at local stations beginning on Friday when

the record lows are pretty high at sites other than NYC with the longer

period of record.

 

Record lows Friday 1-3

 

NYC....-4...1879

LGA....12...1981

JFK.....14...2008

EWR...10...1981

 

Record lows Saturday 1-4

 

NYC...-3...1918

LGA....4...1981

JFK....8...1981

EWR..1...1981

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

We could see records broken for cold  at local stations beginning on Friday when

the record lows are pretty high at sites other than NYC with the longer

period of record.

 

Record lows Friday 1-3

 

NYC....-4

LGA....12

JFK.....14

EWR...10

 

Record lows Saturday 1-4

 

NYC...-3

LGA....4

JFK....8

EWR..1

 

I think JFK, EWR and LGA has a shot at it Friday. NAM has temps in the single digits 06z Friday in and around the city.

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Fantom X

Fantom X

Posted
Posted

based on the local NWS forecast (really like that "heavy snow accumulation" in there)- looks like high temps will be reached after midnight Friday morning and possibly continue to fall all day - haven't seen a CAA day like this in a while- reminiscent of: http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/2004/1/9/DailyHistory.html

 

Thursday Night
nt_chancesnow.gif Snow. Blowing snow. Heavy snow accumulation. Very windy with lows around 16. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 3 below.
Friday
chancesnow.gif Mostly cloudy with snow in the morning...then sunny with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Blowing snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Windy and colder with highs around 15. Chance of snow 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 5 below in the morning.
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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Point and click forecasts are showing lows of -5F to -8F in the Middlesex County area (Edison/Piscataway area), but are only showing lows of +6F or so in Newark and other only slightly more urban areas.  Very surprised with the discrepancy, as I rarely see more than a couple of degrees difference, if any, between here and Newark. So, I looked more closely and the point and click lows are +5F in Rahway, 0F in Woodbridge and -5F in Edison - these three towns are lined up from NE to SW, bordering each other.  I can't imagine the temperature gradient being that steep. 

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

It never ceases to amaze me as to what the local news outlets do around these parts. Their top headline tonight is: "Coldest air in 20 years on the way for NYC." Yet, when the local meteorologist shows his/her 7-day forecast for the city, the lowest temperature is only 9 degrees. That's a far cry from when it plummeted down to -2 in 1993. Oh, the irony!!!

 

Guys, what am I missing here? I know most of the models have us plunging down to the lower single digits at least for NYC and the NAM/Euro has us below zero I think.

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

It never ceases to amaze me as to what the local news outlets do around these parts. Their top headline tonight is: "Coldest air in 20 years on the way for NYC." Yet, when the local meteorologist shows his/her 7-day forecast for the city, the lowest temperature is only 9 degrees. That's a far cry from when it plummeted down to -2 in 1993. Oh, the irony!!!

 

Guys, what am I missing here? I know most of the models have us plunging down to the lower single digits at least for NYC and the NAM/Euro has us below zero I think.

That was in Jan. 1994 not '93 by the way, to make it 20 years.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

0z NAM isn't as cold anymore. City stays above 0. Getting below 0 Sat AM looks like a slim chance now. I think we have better opportunity down the road, all globals indicating a major outbreak. I think areas outside the city Sat AM have a good chance at 0 or lower if they can radiate well. 

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user13

user13

Posted
Posted

0z NAM isn't as cold anymore. City stays above 0. Getting below 0 Sat AM looks like a slim chance now. I think we have better opportunity down the road, all globals indicating a major outbreak. I think areas outside the city Sat AM have a good chance at 0 or lower if they can radiate well. 

The 4k is actually colder for Sat am now...it has it down to -2 in the Park. That would be interesting

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

Posted
Posted

I think areas away from the city still have a good chance of getting below zero Saturday morning.  00z NAM may only drop the city down to 10F but SMQ still gets down to -2F.  I could not believe my eyes when I saw the NWS forecasted low of -11F here for Saturday morning, even though I think that's a little extreme.

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