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Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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The historic blocking that has developed this year near Alaska got the ball rolling toward

the record cold that is showing up in the forecast. That block has been a persistent 

feature for much of 2013. The strengthening  in recent weeks allowed the coldest readings

in the Northern Hemisphere to shift over to North America. This shift has been a big departure

for the 2006-2012 era when the coldest readings relative to means dominated the Eurasian

side of the Northern Hemisphere during this time of year. All that was needed was for the

+AO pattern to become just negative enough with a Davis Strait block for the cold to

invade the Northeast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The historic blocking that has developed this year near Alaska got the ball rolling toward

the record cold that is showing up in the forecast. That block has been a persistent 

feature for much of 2013. The strengthening  in recent weeks allowed the coldest readings

in the Northern Hemisphere to shift over to North America. This shift has been a big departure

for the 2006-2012 era when the coldest readings relative to means dominated the Eurasian

side of the Northern Hemisphere during this time of year. All that was needed was for the

+AO pattern to become just negative enough with a Davis Strait block for the cold to

invade the Northeast.

 

Its too bad temps will warm up before the next shot, I wonder if we could have had some portions of the east river freeze up

- Do you know the last time that happened? Would love to see that again

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Its too bad temps will warm up before the next shot, I wonder if we could have had some portions of the east river freeze up

- Do you know the last time that happened? Would love to see that again

 

During January 1977 large sections of Long Island Sound froze up. The back bays can freeze up the easiest after

several days of very cold temperatures.

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Upton now has KNYC getting down to 0 tonight. What are the chances that actually happens? Or get to -1?

The winds look too light to me, I think they will only make it to about 4 or 5 as the heat island effect will be able to take shape, they may pull it off Monday night though...the suburban areas though may get insanely cold tonight

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My forecasted high for Tuesday is NINE! Wow. When is the last time NE NJ or EWR has had a high temp in the single digits ?!

Impressive but you might get screwed by a midnight high in the low teens. We'll see, overall though some very impressive cold and maybe some snow later in the week.
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post-6-0-73356600-1388771302_thumb.png

How does it calculate those temperatures ? Maybe lower elevations = lower temps....for example, I'm in that area just about 10 miles NNW of Staten Island or so....in the light white area (right around 0)....and I am elevated more so than the area east of me in a valley and forecasted -5. Interesting!

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Guest Pamela

During the 1980's, both Bridgehampton & Patchogue (official NWS cooperatives on the S. Shore of Long Island) fell into the teens below zero on more than one occasion.

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Guest Pamela

I wonder how cold it can get in Westchester's elevated valleys...maybe -30F? Or is the sand's radiative effects more powerful than interior elevation for record cold.

Carmel...across the county line in Putnam County once hit -24 F...and since that co-op tends to run a bit warm..-30 F in northern Westchester is in the realm of possibility in some high valley. I think Bedford Hills all time low is -19 F...but that station is in a built up area which makes it harder to record very low temps. There were also a lot of gaps in the BH record.

The Yorktown Heights record does not help us any...as the station is on top of a hill and radiates poorly.

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