Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Enough. Its a straight up 3 - 6" event on the Euro with 10/1 ratios, more for William and the eastern most Jersey coast. Its cold so 12-15/1 is not out of the question. Hate these snow maps ...That's why I posted the total qpf. I wish I understood soundings more so I can figure out ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hate these snow maps ...That's why I posted the total qpf. I wish I understood soundings more so I can figure out ratios. WxBell has actually done really well for my area so far. Regardless, I never really expected more than 3 - 6". More is bonus of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So Boston goes from 24 inches to 4 lol. How do you think they feel... They seem to be pretty settled with their expectations. Hopefully more here can do the same. And for them it's more than 4 inches. I'd say pretty confidently they get more snow than we do from this, unless by some miracle the coastal storm can come back and blow up in time for us but start occluding for SNE like Boxing Day. This is a pattern that favors them a lot more than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Enough. Its a straight up 3 - 6" event on the Euro with 10/1 ratios, more for William and the eastern most Jersey coast. Its cold so 12-15/1 is not out of the question. Look at how the overrunning wave is centered along I-90. We need that to shift south to be confident of a lot here. That's probably how Boston gets most of its snow. We're much more dependent on any coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look at how the overrunning wave is centered along I-90. We need that to shift south to be confident of a lot here. That's probably how Boston gets most of its snow. We're much more dependent on any coastal development. The low basically slides ene off the Va Capes so most if not all of there snow would have to be from overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look at how the overrunning wave is centered along I-90. We need that to shift south to be confident of a lot here. That's probably how Boston gets most of its snow. We're much more dependent on any coastal development. Agreed and a 50 mile shift would put many here in business. Unfortunately the guidance this year likes to keep things north minus the Philly mega band back on dec 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minerva Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 _lurk off_ I almost never post - but I've been lurking on this board and over at Eastern since 2005. I felt compelled to chime in and say that no one should make any sort of determination of this storm yet. It's way too early. Countless times have I seen things turn around at the last minute. I've seen the naysayers and weenie suicides after every model run, I've watched the freak-outs happen during lulls and before wrap-around snows clobber us. If there is something I've learned from 8 years of quietly lurking and reading these forums is that *anything can happen* so don't count your chickens before they hatch. The models are a good tool, but they are far from perfect as we've seen many times. I have also seen the models "lose" a storm for a day. We could be here again tomorrow evening and all the cynics will suddenly forget they ever doubted at all. Calm down, and enjoy the ride. _lurk on_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 _lurk off_ I almost never post - but I've been lurking on this board and over at Eastern since 2005. I felt compelled to chime in and say that no one should make any sort of determination of this storm yet. It's way too early. Countless times have I seen things turn around at the last minute. I've seen the naysayers and weenie suicides after every model run, I've watched the freak-outs happen during lulls and before wrap-around snows clobber us. If there is something I've learned from 8 years of quietly lurking and reading these forums is that *anything can happen* so don't count your chickens before they hatch. The models are a good tool, but they are far from perfect as we've seen many times. I have also seen the models "lose" a storm for a day. We could be here again tomorrow evening and all the cynics will suddenly forget they ever doubted at all. Calm down, and enjoy the ride. _lurk on_ Good post. I can barely remember a single major storm where they *didn't* lose a storm for at least one model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z GFS QPF: BOS: 0.81" EWR: 0.34" HPN: 0.40" ISP: 0.51" NYC: 0.36" PHL: 0.20" 0z ECWMF QPF: BOS: 0.59" EWR: 0.41" HPN: 0.45" ISP: 0.69" NYC: 0.45" PHL: 0.34" I don't know if anyone here will know what I'm talking about, but shades of February 10, 1983 only that was the night before when the LFM cut QPF in half for a storm that the next day brought us 17.8" of snow, 20" at LGA. The difference? This is still 3 days out. That was the next day. Lesson? Don't make a forecast out of a snapshot of one model run cycle prior to a possible storm. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't know if anyone here will know what I'm talking about, but shades of February 10, 1983 only that was the night before when the LFM cut QPF in half for a storm that the next day brought us 17.8" of snow, 20" at LGA. The difference? This is still 3 days out. That was the next day. Lesson? Don't make a forecast out of a snapshot of one model run cycle prior to a possible storm. WX/PT This! In actuality, nothing really seems surprising anymore after the Eagles snow-bowl game where just a couple of hours before some areas got nearly a foot of snow those very same areas were being called for less than an inch!! We'll all know much better what's going to happen come Thursday/Friday after the storm has arrived/ended! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 12z thread better be much better than this, I do agree with ace though, there is definitely too many posts that dont have legitimate reasoning as to why this storm will probably outperform current model analysis. Back to the discussion..... we are still are lightyears away from the storm. A stronger ridge out west will help a ton downstream but as someone else said, the base of the trough needs to sharpen to bring this baby closer for more snow. Either way it looks like we'll get at least a couple inches anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 GEFS members are similar to 18z, but only 2 member has an epic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GFS MREF members: eight give NYC 0.25-0.5 (with more on LI), two give NYC 0.5-0.75, and two drop 1.00-1.50. The best news is that none of the twelve are whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF a tad wetter but to be expected with a wetter NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gfs is 4-8 from the 06z run. Highest totals from city-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z euro was 4-6 and had 8+ on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any word on the euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don't make a forecast out of a snapshot of one model run cycle prior to a possible storm. WX/PT I agree. This is still a complex situation with uncertainty. Already, the GFS has reverted back to more robust qpf at 6z similar to its 18z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any word on the euro ens? They show 4-5 inches for Northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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