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Early January Major/Potential Record Cold


Hoosier

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Does seem strange.  Will be interesting.  GFS not quite as impressive as other models at this point..

Euro has been so consistent...  Even has a nice little blob over Cyclone:

xdz5g1.jpg

 

 

Even the east coast looks like it gets blitzed with cold... strong return of south winds later on in the run...thank God this isn't hanging around.

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Saints-

 

The NAEFS is normal with even some above avg building in the plains... good sign that maybe this cold is over for awhile.  Don't care to see the heating bills after this.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

Been horrible a horrible start to the heating season.  Prepaid quite a bit a my heating fuel this year. Already burned through most of it.  If the storm to our east can wind up more like the GGEM is showing some of the windchills on the ridge tops could be incredible on sunday night and Monday morning.

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^  Nothing like 0% indoor humidity

Yeah...  I think that reading was wrong, or said the government...  Its all what your use to ...  -30F here is like 32F in Miami and so on... -30F here is a warm day in Tok :) 

 

If those winds are blowing, air should be mixed, so at least my brother up on the bluff won't be warmer then me, which always happens when we go calm in winter.  

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January 16, 2009 saw a min of -13F at CLE. The 2009 cold outbreak was the coldest for Northern Ohio since the January 1994 outbreak. 850mb temperatures with the January 16, 2009 event ranged from -24 to -26C across Northern Ohio. The 12z GFS ensemble mean shows 850mb temperatures of -26 to -28C Monday night into Tuesday morning across Northern Ohio...while the 12z Euro ensemble mean shows 850mb temperatures of -28 to -32C in the same timeframe across Northern Ohio. The op models are all a couple of degrees colder than these numbers.

 

The 2009 event featured clouds and winds on cold air advection (along with a few snow showers)...so given we may see similar conditions (clouds, winds staying up) as the January 2009 arctic outbreak but a somewhat colder airmass, -10F to -15F seems likely at CLE Tuesday morning for a min, even if the models modify a few degrees at 850mb between now and then. If the operational models hold and we see 850mb temperatures of colder than -30C Monday night into Tuesday morning (the January 19, 1994 outbreak was -30 to -35F across Northern Ohio) lows of -15 to -20F at CLE may be possible at CLE Tuesday morning. The all time record low temp for CLE is -20F set on 1/19/94.

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