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January 2-3 Winter Storm Potential


Ralph Wiggum

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It doesn't pay to get worked up about 48+ hr NAM runs.

 

The 60 hr NAM runs have been dead on so far this season for our area, I'd argue the most accurate out of any of the models at any time.  The next two runs are the ones to watch.

 

I know it hasn't been the norm, but this year alone, it has done well.

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I'm gonna go 2-5 inches for Trenton.  2 inches if QPF underperforms (as if that's ever happened), 5 inches if ratios really come into play.  May tighten that a bit tomorrow, but really, the EC and GFS are in reasonable agreement...

 

No really?  :lol:

 

Yeah they are pretty close within .10" and not like that won't change in the next two days

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Latest Wxsim run with 12z data from the GFS and NAM has 0.32" of liquid so somewhere between 3"-5" snow as temps will be falling pretty quickly during heaviest precip. I also still expect to see this trend a little wetter as we move toward tonight's 0z runs. Have not had a storm here in Chesco exceed 4.5" since October 30, 2011 storm that gave us 9"

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Many said this would be a year where we got nickled and dimed. Looks like this is shaping up to be another one of those events. As long as my grass is covered, I'm happy.

That was last year down this way at least. This winter has had some larger change in there, and some surprises, so far. We'll see if that continues. So far for this event it seems we are settling into a baseline of 2" with potential for more.

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Well the 12Z had 1-2", the 18Z has 3-5".

 

Either the next run or run after it will surely overcompensate and be useless for the next bunch of runs. 

 

So for now, 3-5" is what I'm sticking with!  If the next one comes in slightly more, I'll up the 3-5" to 4-6".  If it comes in way amped, I'm going to stick with 3-5".

 

It might be nothing, but my theory with the NAM has been pretty useful this year.

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All of our office snow graphics and my lengthy thoughts are listed in the AFD for both this event and Sunday-Monday.

Mitchell,

I noticed both the AFD and HWO mention a 2-4" snowfall for the Lehigh Valley, yet the Mt. Holly storm total snowfall forecast graphic shows 4-6" and I was wondering why the difference. Not quibbling, was just curious. Thanks.

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Mitchell,

I noticed both the AFD and HWO mention a 2-4" snowfall for the Lehigh Valley, yet the Mt. Holly storm total snowfall forecast graphic shows 4-6" and I was wondering why the difference. Not quibbling, was just curious. Thanks.

You're right at 4. Could go either way. I could see the Lehigh valley split between the two groups based on location. Our graphics don't have a 3-5. Though I could have done that in the AFD etc. You're were grouped in with areas further south on the HWO. 

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