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January 2-3 Winter Storm Potential


Ralph Wiggum

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QPF is the same but I remember reading a post back in the easternuswx days about how the wind breaks down the flakes some lessening the accumulation...I'm hoping for a few moments of bliss. Paul posted a dream map in the vendor forum from eastern pa wx you might want to look at....bettin you've already did.

It's more dense on the ground, so a little less to measure, but pretty awesome coming down. Yes, I saw the dream map, I hope it verifies, but I really try not to get too carried away this far out. People talk about how 2009-2010 was easy to sort out days in advance, and I remember being impressed how a major event could be so well forecast that far in advance (and more than once that winter). This is a more complex scenario, so while I am for sure excited about the possibility, I'm a little cautious yet, but enjoying the process. Especially today :lmao:

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It's more dense on the ground, so a little less to measure, but pretty awesome coming down. Yes, I saw the dream map, I hope it verifies, but I really try not to get too carried away this far out. People talk about how 2009-2010 was easy to sort out days in advance, and I remember being impressed how a major event could be so well forecast that far in advance (and more than once that winter). This is a more complex scenario, so while I am for sure excited about the possibility, I'm a little cautious yet, but enjoying the process. Especially today :lmao:

Boxing Day wasn't ironed out til 36 hours out.  Lets never forget that.

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0z GFS does nothing to inspire confidence. It's about as bad as it's least snowy ensemble at 18z. Still plenty of time 

 

 

The only model that showed a big ticket storm was the euro correct?

I agree about the GFS. It does look as if we should get a few inches of snow though by Friday

A complete shut out would be tragic :loon:

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0z models all have this "convective feedback" feature...I put that in quotes because that's probably not what it is. Why is the low so strung out and east, despite improvements at 500 mb?

 

I'm not the best at diagnosing this stuff, but it seems to me that there isn't a properly positioned baroclinic zone near the surface for the upper level dynamics to act on.  That's my best guess as to why this system doesn't seem to organize properly.

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