GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yep, really good...Miller A storm with enough suppression to get a lot of folks in the game. Looks like freezing rain to sleet/snow. Haven't checked soundings yet. Yep, she's baaaack! I guess the model healed from the 18Z run. Now nine of the last ten GFS runs as well as the last three Euro runs.have shown at least widespread NC sig. wintry precip. within 2/11-13! The 18Z looked weird anyway with the low going over ATL and into the heart of the CAD. As modeled, this would start in far NW TN in less than 5 days (2/10 evening). So, anyone thinking this is only in the wild fantasy category may want to think again. Also, keep in mind that the precip. of this storm is largely the same moisture that continues to be progged to give SF/N Cal. its heaviest rain event by far since Dec. of 2012 (~4" per this run)!! Follow the moisture. So, there appear to be tons of moisture with which to work. This run is even wetter than prior runs with a whopping 1.5 to 2.5" of qpf for many areas. Also, note how far south the cold 30's hold for 2/12 PM: Columbus, GA, to not far north of CHS! This wedge means business. However, the maps I see still show the 32 line staying NE of GA. Man I hope Brick is already getting shut-eye. It will be interesting to see what MeteoStar has to say but I wouldn't want Brick to see it tonight. We'll see what the King has to say in about 1.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 00Z RDU GFS OUCH!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Unfortunately, yes . Shawn and I recently figured this out. We didn't realize it when I was first looking at them for the 1/28-30 storm. However, we later figured out that each ensemble member is plagued with the same silly problem. Why the algorithm can include a line that requires 850's to be 0 C or colder is a mystery to us. Argh, well, that sucks. Nevertheless, it apparently wasn't showing any significant frozen precip of any type at 00z, so it's still an improvement. And that GFS run was a crushjob. Yummy. Perhaps the 18z run was a blip. That might be the most suppressed track as far as precip is concerned. DC gets fringed. Hope you're right. 25 is much better than 30. What hour are you looking at? TW The colder, the better, but if we get hammered like the GFS shows, I'm not too worried whether it's 30 or 25, haha. It would be nice to get a cold storm like we had on 1/28 (though it certainly won't be quite that cold). Snow with temperatures in the mid-20s is awesome and certainly beats the marginal temperature events we have to get. Details are unimportant, anyways. It's not like we're going to hold this exact setup for another ~30 runs. We just need to hope the players stay on the field and that things look good as we come towards crunch time. I'm still not confident in this one, but it's the best chance we've got at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hope you're right. 25 is much better than 30. What hour are you looking at? TW @168... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Larry, I posted in the TN thread bc this is, I believe, a legit threat. 1. Consistent high featured (exception 18z) 2. Slight west coast ridging at an opportune time. 3. Robust feature off the Pacific being forced southeast. 4. High generally locked in over the top of the developing storm. 5. AO projected to dive around this time frame 6. Nice overrunning setup well in advance of the main system (a staple of great winter storms of the past) It all adds up to me and like you said, it is projected to begin around hour 120+... This one has legs IMO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just checked Meteostar for GSO and you can scratch what I waid about this being a "warm" winter storm. GSO would get 1.39 with temps starting near freezing and falling as low as 22 at the end. Much of the storm is between 24-28. So, colder than what I thought according to Meteostar. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just checked Meteostar for GSO and you can scratch what I waid about this being a "warm" winter storm. GSO would get 1.39 with temps starting near freezing and falling as low as 22 at the end. Much of the storm is between 24-28. So, colder than what I thought according to Meteostar. TW That would be insane! Is upstate still in play at this moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 00Z RDU GFS OUCH!!!!!! My guess was wrong when I said sn/ip...LOL. I'll pass on that much zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That would be insane! Is upstate still in play at this moment? Yes it is. Just checked GSP and it starts as rain but then had around 1.24 as zr, with temps around 31/32 - so that's really close to a major deal. Then maybe a trace of snow to end. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yes it is. Just checked GSP and it starts as rain but then had around 1.24 as zr, with temps around 31/32 - so that's really close to a major deal. Then maybe a trace of snow to end. TW Thanks! I really think this trends colder, just from the snowcover and good high placement. With the front coming thru Sunday , we will have fresh high pressure to work with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 00z Canadian tries to keep the weekend hopes alive with presumably 1-3" across the northern tier of NC from the coastal, though 2m temperatures probably destroy that hope. FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 00z Canadian tries to keep the weekend hopes alive with presumably 1-3" across the northern tier of NC from the coastal, though 2m temperatures probably destroy that hope. FWIW... It's a shame too... all the 850 temps I've seen are pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 00Z RDU GFS OUCH!!!!!! My guess was wrong when I said sn/ip...LOL. I'll pass on that much zr. Yeah 1.234 ZR and .501 SN wold be a total mess and I'm with you I'll pass on the ZR also lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Larry, I posted in the TN thread bc this is, I believe, a legit threat. 1. Consistent high featured (exception 18z) 2. Slight west coast ridging at an opportune time. 3. Robust feature off the Pacific being forced southeast. 4. High generally locked in over the top of the developing storm. 5. AO projected to dive around this time frame 6. Nice overrunning setup well in advance of the main system (a staple of great winter storms of the past) It all adds up to me and like you said, it is projected to begin around hour 120+... This one has legs IMO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nice rundown! We're in agreement. I don't know how one wouldn't think it is a legit "threat" as of this time. Good luck in TN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Before the 0z Euro gets off and running...I see we are approaching 100 pages on this thread, should be begin new once the Euro Operational is complete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Before the 0z Euro gets off and running... I see we are approaching 100 pages on this thread, should be begin new once the Euro Operational is complete? Go for it ! I started a February forecast and discussion a week ago, but if y'all want winter part 3 , that's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Go for it ! I started a February forecast and discussion a week ago, but if y'all want winter part 3 , that's cool Awesome...I'll get it started. Also perfect timing now that we have a storm-specific thread for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anyone got the doc pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 See new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.