franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Will be happy to get a -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The pattern continues to look cold for at least the next 10 days, according to the Operational Euro and GFS solutions. Looking at just the Ops, one could make the argument that a SE ridge, along with a bit of a -PNA might start to emerge. But we've seen that show up before recently, and it hasn't panned out. Also, it could be a transient feature. Who knows. But suffice it to say, the next 10 days will feature below to much below normal temps for a good portion of the SE. I won't take away from Larry's thread by discussing specific storm chances here, but there are some. The CPC teleconnections look pretty much the same with a +PNA giving way to a -PNA, the NAO staying mainly positive and the AO staying mainly negative, with a short spike into positive territory indicated. The CFS (below for comparison with yesterday) for February continues to look colder and wetter as we move closer to the end of this month. Again, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the actual pictures, but the trend is perhaps what's the most important thing. It has trended colder. That seems to line up with Don's thoughts in the main forum. Regarding storm chances, I will say that a near miss-suppressed fantasy storm look at around 5 days out or so is a favorable place to be, in my mind. That's what we have. I'll take that all day long as opposed to that junk that was cutting west of the Apps earlier in the year. Anyone with Ensembles, please weigh in on what the pattern looks like longer term. Initiate: I agree. Good thing we don't live at 500mb, any slight ridge that does form on the SE is likely to be transient and weak. While I don't know what's going to happen out west with the PNA in the LR, it looks like the models are starting to agree on a -NAO/-AO package. The Euro EPS mean basically flipped this time period from terrible to favorable teleconnections in the LR: Euro EPS mean AO: goes negative 1/02 NAO: goes negative 1/02-1/03 OP GFS 16-day: AO: negative 1/02 by 1/07 it's -4, Euro ensemble individual members are off the charts same time period. NAO: negative 1/02-1/03 GEFS is spread basically on the CPC site but looking at AO individual members valid 1/02: 14/20 members are negative Same story for the GEFS NAO, +3.7 individual member is going to skew the mean: 14/20 members are negative. We all know what the CFSv2 shows for Feb. The ensembles ran 00z 1/23: Max snow depth from days 5-15 cover all of the SE, with areas as far as south GA with 6"+ on 2 out of 4 ensembles. Snow in Florida on 3 out of 4 ensembles (I don't remember seeing this modeled this winter yet) We might not need a +PNA to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I agree. Good thing we don't live at 500mb, any slight ridge that does form on the SE is likely to be transient and weak. While I don't know what's going to happen out west with the PNA in the LR, it looks like the models are starting to agree on a -NAO/-AO package. The Euro EPS mean basically flipped this time period from terrible to favorable teleconnections in the LR: Euro EPS mean AO: goes negative 1/02 NAO: goes negative 1/02-1/03 OP GFS 16-day: AO: negative 1/02 by 1/07 it's -4, Euro ensemble individual members are off the charts same time period. NAO: negative 1/02-1/03 GEFS is spread basically on the CPC site but looking at AO individual members valid 1/02: 14/20 members are negative Same story for the GEFS NAO, +3.7 individual member is going to skew the mean: 14/20 members are negative. We all know what the CFSv2 shows for Feb. The ensembles ran 00z 1/23: Max snow depth from days 5-15 cover all of the SE, with areas as far as south GA with 6"+ on 2 out of 4 ensembles. Snow in Florida on 3 out of 4 ensembles (I don't remember seeing this modeled this winter yet) We might not need a +PNA to cash in. Perhaps I missed the part about the ensembles 00z 1/23 showing all of the snow depth in the SE. Could you direct me to a good place to observe these myself? Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Will be happy to get a -pna. We agree on this. I think the fact the Pacific has absolutely "wrecked" us over the last decade leads many to believe we have to have that to get snow. Sure it can help, but it's been nothing but cold and dry so far so why not try a different Pacific. I'd rather get wrecked by something else (-PNA, SE RIDGE, NAO, AO) from here on out........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Perhaps I missed the part about the ensembles 00z 1/23 showing all of the snow depth in the SE. Could you direct me to a good place to observe these myself? Thanks, These are paid maps at weatherbell.com, so you'd need a subscription (or free trial) to view. I tend to stay away from posting unique maps to the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 These are paid maps at weatherbell.com, so you'd need a subscription (or free trial) to view. I tend to stay away from posting unique maps to the site. I kind of figured it must of been from a paid site. Can you be a bit more specific about the Fl/Ga aspects? (Time period etc) thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I agree. Good thing we don't live at 500mb, any slight ridge that does form on the SE is likely to be transient and weak. While I don't know what's going to happen out west with the PNA in the LR, it looks like the models are starting to agree on a -NAO/-AO package. The Euro EPS mean basically flipped this time period from terrible to favorable teleconnections in the LR: Euro EPS mean AO: goes negative 1/02 NAO: goes negative 1/02-1/03 OP GFS 16-day: AO: negative 1/02 by 1/07 it's -4, Euro ensemble individual members are off the charts same time period. NAO: negative 1/02-1/03 GEFS is spread basically on the CPC site but looking at AO individual members valid 1/02: 14/20 members are negative Same story for the GEFS NAO, +3.7 individual member is going to skew the mean: 14/20 members are negative. We all know what the CFSv2 shows for Feb. The ensembles ran 00z 1/23: Max snow depth from days 5-15 cover all of the SE, with areas as far as south GA with 6"+ on 2 out of 4 ensembles. Snow in Florida on 3 out of 4 ensembles (I don't remember seeing this modeled this winter yet) We might not need a +PNA to cash in. Thanks for the Ens context Jon. Good stuff. Even with some of the -PNA looks that the Ops are showing, there's still cold air nearby and plenty of opportunity for damming. This only increases if the NAO goes negative and is configured favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I kind of figured it must of been from a paid site. Can you be a bit more specific about the Fl/Ga aspects? (Time period etc) thanks It's kind of pointless talking specifics when it's a sub-weekly CFSv2 run, it's better to use for trends. The maps tend to think Ga/Fl cash in near day 8-10, or essentially beginning of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's kind of pointless talking specifics when it's a sub-weekly CFSv2 run, it's better to use for trends. The maps tend to think Ga/Fl cash in near day 8-10, or essentially beginning of Feb. Ok...no I really didnt mean I wanted specifics other than the trend aspects. Those who live by the models die by the models...but they are good to follow trends. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We agree on this. I think the fact the Pacific has absolutely "wrecked" us over the last decade leads many to believe we have to have that to get snow. Sure it can help, but it's been nothing but cold and dry so far so why not try a different Pacific. I'd rather get wrecked by something else (-PNA, SE RIDGE, NAO, AO) from here on out........lolI think its was 09-10 the last time a +pna gave us a snowstorm. Will gladly take a couple overunning events to try and salvage climo. Thats really sad since its been so cold and above average in precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is that a -NAO I see showing up on the GFS and Euro in the LR now? Nice -PNA look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Strong -ao, epo on the euro ensembles. Better looking west based nao too. This is combined with a -pna. #will it finally snow in the parts of the upper south that average a decent amount of snow every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 -PNA is not what we want to see. Maybe I'm reading it wrong but it sounds like you guys are trying to polish a turd in regards to a -PNA being a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 -PNA is not what we want to see. Maybe I'm reading it wrong but it sounds like you guys are trying to polish a turd in regards to a -PNA being a good thing.storms! Unless you prefer cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't know alot, but even I know a + PNA means trough in the west, and that is not what we need for cold and snow in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't know alot, but even I know a + PNA means trough in the west, and that is not what we need for cold and snow in the SEIt depends on how negative the PNA is and what the rest of the pattern is doing. A deep, full-latitude trough in the west is not good for us, but some troughiness next to a rollover ridge means split flow. If the Atlantic cooperates, then it's definitely a better pattern than the cold and dry of a full on +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't know alot, but even I know a + PNA means trough in the west, and that is not what we need for cold and snow in the SE Some of our best storms come from +PNA regimes. You guys are just flat out confused I believe. -PNA means West coast storms and we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I thought a positive phase of the PNA pattern is associated with above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western United States, and below-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S. Why would we want a negative PNA and the converse (above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S.)? Wouldn't we want a positive to neutral PNA with Atlantic blocking instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pna_index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pna_index.php Precisely. (Positively/Neutral) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Some of our best storms come from +PNA regimes. You guys are just flat out confused I believe. -PNA means West coast storms and we get screwed.I put wrong thing, +pna means ridge out west, -PNA generally means trough out west. I was confused #old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So, December 2010 had a -PNA? That was a great month for Southeastern winter weather. Can't you get a split flow with a -PNA? EDIT: I don't mean to imply it's ideal, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 But... we want a little -PNA in this case to move the cold just a little further west. You can see it's been pretty positive lately and you see where the snow fell, in many cases along the coast. A little neutral to negative might not hurt in this case. The -PNA may allow the ridge to further develop like Robert was talking about. We're talking little shifts here and there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just to make sure everyone is clear and not confused. The ideal setup for a good east coast snowstorm would include a +PNA ridge out west and a trough over the eastern half of the country (preferably with some Atlantic blocking and a nice strong high sitting to our north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just to make sure everyone is clear and not confused. The ideal setup for a good east coast snowstorm would include a +PNA ridge out west and a trough over the eastern half of the country (preferably with some Atlantic blocking and a nice strong high sitting to our north). My post above (#1938) - agree 1000% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Basically expanding on my post this AM about the teleconnections:12z OP Euro not only gave us a fantasy storm, but flipped which follows the the trends the 00z EPS mean showed. Not only past day 10 but in the 7 day as well. They go negative and STAY negative. As you can see from the 12z Euro and the multi-colored previous runs, the 12z is vastly different. 12z Euro: NAO: AO: 12z Euro EPS mean: AO: Goes negative 1/01 and ensemble members are off the charts negative (past -5) NAO: Goes negative 1/01 and ensemble members are as far negative as -4 18z GFS AO: Crashes to -2 by 1/03 stays negative NAO: -1 around 1/03 and neutral through 1/06-1/07 Now if we can see some life in a neutral or +PNA somewhere in the LR we'll be set for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Some of our best storms come from +PNA regimes. You guys are just flat out confused I believe. -PNA means West coast storms and we get screwed.not necessarily, we can get screwed just as easy with a + pna if the ridge axis is too far east or west, the ridge is not amplified enough. I would much ratber have slightly negative pna with a strong ao/nao combo than this crappy ridge that wont retrograde. I am tired of wind chill warnings and advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Basically expanding on my post this AM about the teleconnections: 12z OP Euro not only gave us a fantasy storm, but flipped which follows the the trends the 00z EPS mean showed. Not only past day 10 but in the 7 day as well. They go negative and STAY negative. As you can see from the 12z Euro and the multi-colored previous runs, the 12z is vastly different. 12z Euro: NAO: AO: 12z Euro EPS mean: AO: Goes negative 1/01 and ensemble members are off the charts negative (past -5) NAO: Goes negative 1/01 and ensemble members are as far negative as -4 18z GFS AO: Crashes to -2 by 1/03 stays negative NAO: -1 around 1/03 and neutral through 1/06-1/07 Now if we can see some life in a neutral or +PNA somewhere in the LR we'll be set for Feb. the positive height anomalies are centered over the Davis straits too. West based nao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just to make sure everyone is clear and not confused. The ideal setup for a good east coast snowstorm would include a +PNA ridge out west and a trough over the eastern half of the country (preferably with some Atlantic blocking and a nice strong high sitting to our north). But the key in that type of setup is to also have an El Nino like southern stream plowing into California and across the southern states, and undercutting the western North American ridging. Without that, the +PNA tends cold and dry with predominant northern stream influence, NW flow...of course, that can work out too (like next week maybe), but not as favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 But the key in that type of setup is to also have an El Nino like southern stream plowing into California and across the southern states, and undercutting the western North American ridging. Without that, the +PNA tends cold and dry with predominant northern stream influence, NW flow...of course, that can work out too (like next week maybe), but not as favorable.exactly! Which is why I would like to transition to a -pna. Without a southern stream we will have to take a -pna to get any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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