January Pattern Discussion

[CAPE]

Folks in the southern third of VA, including Richmond, probably should post in the SE sub-forum. Climo there has become "detached" from places just to the north, and is more like that of Central NC. Consider all the big storms and Blizzards over the past 20 years...Richmond area has mostly been excluded. If a worse micro snow hole than DC exists, it is Richmond.

[Ji]

i talked to RaleighWx yesterday. He said none of his winter analogs had blocking. We may not get a -NAO this winter

[aldie 22]

i talked to RaleighWx yesterday. He said none of his winter analogs had blocking. We may not get a -NAO this winter

And may still end up with normal snow in your backyard...lucky break really

[CAPE]

i talked to RaleighWx yesterday. He said none of his winter analogs had blocking. We may not get a -NAO this winter

How about the stratospheric warming that was being discussed a few days ago. Is it legit warming? Or maybe due to the PV being so far displaced. If it is a major event, that should increase odds of getting a -NAO, maybe by early Feb.

[Bob Chill]

Ever since the upgrades, the Euro at long leads is still Dr. NO. But then it becomes Dr. Meh, then Dr. Maybe, Then Dr. OK WHATEVER GFS and NAM SAY, as the event nears.

Euro ens are caving to the gfs in the lr. Warm period is looking to be 1week before returning to ridge West trough east. No big cold verbatim but this is a good month to get lucky with normal air.

So far the pattern looks to be ns dominant with vorts over top of western ridging. Have no idea if the ss will be active. No real blocking showing so mixy verbatim. It's a long ways out and not worth fine details. Nice to see the euro make this step today though. A 2 week crap period will get on my nerves. Could still happen but out of sight out of mind for now.

[CAPE]

Euro ens are caving to the gfs in the lr. Warm period is looking to be 1week before returning to ridge West trough east. No big cold verbatim but this is a good month to get lucky with normal air.

So far the pattern looks to be ns dominant with vorts over top of western ridging. Have no idea if the ss will be active. No real blocking showing so mixy verbatim. It's a long ways out and not worth fine details. Nice to see the euro make this step today though. A 2 week crap period will get on my nerves. Could still happen but out of sight out of mind for now.

Yeah a 2 week warm spell in the heart of winter sucks. I will take it and not complain after mid Feb, but I want cold and snow chances during the optimal period for this area.

[winter_warlock]

lol nws calling for a low of 29 where I live in sparrows point.. im already at 28 lol  and still clear skies although I don't know why the little box to my left says 30 , lol my high tech thermometer is always right and says 28.2

[winter_warlock]

Euro ens are caving to the gfs in the lr. Warm period is looking to be 1week before returning to ridge West trough east. No big cold verbatim but this is a good month to get lucky with normal air.

So far the pattern looks to be ns dominant with vorts over top of western ridging. Have no idea if the ss will be active. No real blocking showing so mixy verbatim. It's a long ways out and not worth fine details. Nice to see the euro make this step today though. A 2 week crap period will get on my nerves. Could still happen but out of sight out of mind for now.

normal air actually  has been know to give us good snows

[winter_warlock]

i talked to RaleighWx yesterday. He said none of his winter analogs had blocking. We may not get a -NAO this winter

hmm I though NAO's were never really able to be seen more then a few weeks out so  we could see  a neg NAO .  long way to go bud only jan 4th

[Bob Chill]

i talked to RaleighWx yesterday. He said none of his winter analogs had blocking. We may not get a -NAO this winter

I'd like to see years he's using. On the monthly averages I believe we'll end up with an overall +ao/nao this year. Kinda stark so far. But very few years if any don't have some periods of blocking mixed in the fray. We just got an ok storm with a -ao/neutral nao.

I'm not as hung up on that stuff as I used to be. We had a monster -ao in dec last year but I barely needed a jacket most of the month. This past december was a pretty big +ao but it felt more wintry than any of the 2 previous ones. I know you are chasing ku's only. That's a rough chase imo. Odds are always stacked against us for those. I like this winter a lot so far.

The AO was +2 in Nov and +1.5 in Dec. If I had to make a guess Jan will end up positive but maybe not by much. Most likely under or well under 1.5 on the averages. I really don't have many thoughts on Feb. I like HM's references to nino's qualities to this winter. If we can keep an active ss we could probably get a good storm next month. I haven't really thought about it much. I only focus on 2-4 week leads and they are volatile enough.

GFS op runs and now both gefs and euro ens are supporting a return to more potential by the 20th. That's where my head is at.

[winter_warlock]

heres something  different..   this is the view from my bedroom balcony window looking down to the water... I now have ice forming on the bay in front of my house, haven't seen that in a few years here., I think in the coming days ( Monday night and Tuesday ) the ice will only expand....

[Bob Chill]

18z gefs look colder in the lr. Warm period 5-6 days. Pattern amplifies and decent signal for fairly deep ec trough.

I'm liking the trends as we move forward. Similar to the previous 2-3 warm signals. Tempering as we move forward. We might squeak a neg departure for the month if things go well. Except for dc. They arent going to stockpile like the other airports. Last night was a good example.

Hopefully trends keep up as we get into better range.

[87storms]

18z gefs look colder in the lr. Warm period 5-6 days. Pattern amplifies and decent signal for fairly deep ec trough.

I'm liking the trends as we move forward. Similar to the previous 2-3 warm signals. Tempering as we move forward. We might squeak a neg departure for the month if things go well. Except for dc. They arent going to stockpile like the other airports. Last night was a good example.

Hopefully trends keep up as we get into better range.

 

we do patterns fairly well here...wouldn't surprise me if we keep getting cold waves trough the winter given that's been the trend the last couple months.  maybe we can squeak out a good, COLD, powdery snowstorm from start to finish.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'd like to see years he's using. On the monthly averages I believe we'll end up with an overall +ao/nao this year. Kinda stark so far. But very few years if any don't have some periods of blocking mixed in the fray. We just got an ok storm with a -ao/neutral nao.

I'm not as hung up on that stuff as I used to be. We had a monster -ao in dec last year but I barely needed a jacket most of the month. This past december was a pretty big +ao but it felt more wintry than any of the 2 previous ones. I know you are chasing ku's only. That's a rough chase imo. Odds are always stacked against us for those. I like this winter a lot so far.

The AO was +2 in Nov and +1.5 in Dec. If I had to make a guess Jan will end up positive but maybe not by much. Most likely under or well under 1.5 on the averages. I really don't have many thoughts on Feb. I like HM's references to nino's qualities to this winter. If we can keep an active ss we could probably get a good storm next month. I haven't really thought about it much. I only focus on 2-4 week leads and they are volatile enough.

GFS op runs and now both gefs and euro ens are supporting a return to more potential by the 20th. That's where my head is at.

To add to what you said, Wes' snow chart he posted a while back had several nice events when the AO and NAO were both positive.

[WinterWxLuvr]

we do patterns fairly well here...wouldn't surprise me if we keep getting cold waves trough the winter given that's been the trend the last couple months. maybe we can squeak out a good, COLD, powdery snowstorm from start to finish.

I'd happily trade a big snow for about a four week period of cold and small snows/icing events, lotsa cloudiness, snow cover, etc. As you might have guessed, it's the whole winter experience I like. A big snow followed two days later with 50 degree temps doesn't do much for me.

[jviper]

When was the last time the bay froze over? Or at least. Rivers like the south and Severn? Just asking.

[mitchnick]

When was the last time the bay froze over? Or at least. Rivers like the south and Severn? Just asking.

76/77 they did

there may have been some partial freezing since then but nothing like that year

I walked out on the Bay around 50' one day at Sandy Point State Park...solid and a lot of black ice which may going any further stupider than I had already been going out 50'

[Huffwx]

this may be dumb, but I cheer for our sub forum. I'd rather Winchester get snow than NYC or BOS. 

 

 

these last 2 winters have exposed what many of us who grew up here have known for years...that in a number of winters we are not all in this together...huge discrepancies across the area that are out of whack with climo....of course this smooths out over time....which is part of the reason I am DC centric...because there is no "us" that spans the region....of course we arent going to have 1000 subforums, but people need to recgonize there is no "us" for many events....I enjoy seeing others in the region get snow...in particular the folks to the west.....but in winters like this I really couldnt care less about the York PA's and Cecil County MD's because what is happening there has nothing to do with me

[golia1w]

Folks in the southern third of VA, including Richmond, probably should post in the SE sub-forum. Climo there has become "detached" from places just to the north, and is more like that of Central NC. Consider all the big storms and Blizzards over the past 20 years...Richmond area has mostly been excluded. If a worse micro snow hole than DC exists, it is Richmond.

 

I feel like someone makes a post like this a few times each winter, yet when I look at snowfall records from RIC (which is demonstrably lower than even the rest of the metro Richmond region) they are closer to DCA than, say RDU. Has anyone ever studied numbers to substantiate the claim that Richmond has become "detached," or is this just a regional bias playing out?

[yoda]

18z gefs look colder in the lr. Warm period 5-6 days. Pattern amplifies and decent signal for fairly deep ec trough.

I'm liking the trends as we move forward. Similar to the previous 2-3 warm signals. Tempering as we move forward. We might squeak a neg departure for the month if things go well. Except for dc. They arent going to stockpile like the other airports. Last night was a good example.

Hopefully trends keep up as we get into better range.

 

00z GFS in la la land likes a big ridge out west and a decent trough out east days 10-14

[Bob Chill]

00z GFS in la la land likes a big ridge out west and a decent trough out east days 10-14

It does and evidence is slowly mounting towards the warmup being brief vs prolonged. We need a dang block tho. Progressive flow will make it tough to time something. Not complaining either way. Ive been worried about a prolonged period with zero chances. Worries are slowly fading but nothing classic on the horizon yet.

[PivotPoint]

GFS ens have been hinting the last two days at some above normal heights/blocking over Greenland at 10-14 day range.

This could make sense to me given:

1. GFS has handled our longer range pattern better this fall/winter than it has previous two winters. And appears to have a decent grasp on our current atmospheric dynamics.

2. Pattern variability can actually be advantageous to our teleconnections, via large synoptic events that ride these short lived waves of change.

Just saying, that I like a little bit of "dynamic action" in the atmosphere during the height of our meteorological winter. It can lead to optimal setups (at times).

[clskinsfan]

What warmup? The Gefs and Euro have a short shot of warmth. Then bring back the chill. We have a real winter pattern so far this season. Lets kill the negative stuff. We could be heading for a nice end to winter.

[Heisy]

Did EURO show a snow/ice event at 120-144hrs? It looks cold enough. 

[Heisy]

Anyone see the mega ice storm the GFS has for N VA? 

 

[BristowWx]

Anyone see the mega ice storm the GFS has for N VA? 

 

ice.gif

126hr is even better. But good ice here seems to require that second blue line to be waving hello

[clueless]

Did EURO show a snow/ice event at 120-144hrs? It looks cold enough.

New thread started for this.

[usedtobe]

How about the stratospheric warming that was being discussed a few days ago. Is it legit warming? Or maybe due to the PV being so far displaced. If it is a major event, that should increase odds of getting a -NAO, maybe by early Feb.

It wasn't a legit warming event.  To be one it has to turn the winds to easterly at 30mb....that was not clsoe to happening.  The stratospheric polar temps still are below normal and winds are westerly. 

[mitchnick]

this is all you need to know about JAN folks

[mitchnick]

...and FEB