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MetHerb

January 2014 pattern discussion

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And folks, with the core of the cold over the Midwest a few weeks ago they snowed aplenty. Most major climo sites way above including ORD.

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Wow op Euro doesn't even have a trace of snow for me through D10. That would be very painful.

Your call looks spot on! Perhaps could have gone 15 days

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And folks, with the core of the cold over the Midwest a few weeks ago they snowed aplenty. Most major climo sites way above including ORD.

 

 

There's a reason that the most similar patterns in this did produce snow within 5 days of the best analogs. Some will listen and some won't.

 

Some understand probabilistic forecasting, and others don't. You can tell from the posts. Should be a fun couple of weeks.

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I like to play in snow but not likely in an environment of coastal sne. That's why New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine were invented. :P

Some absolutely beautiful cross country trails have been developed, sledding hills, snow mobile trails.There is plenty of winter sports activities to be had in the great winters and I have a sneaky suspicion we reap those benefits in our back yards before long.

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There's a reason that the most similar patterns in this did produce snow within 5 days of the best analogs. Some will listen and some won't.

 

Some understand probabilistic forecasting, and others don't. You can tell from the posts. Should be a fun couple of weeks.

 

Well, I will say that many of the :weenie: posts lead by Kevin were locking in 3 accumulating snowfalls starting with Wednesday of this week, then the Saturday deal, and then next Tuesday.

 

It was pretty easy to post 4 days ago and said that all of those looked tenuous at best.

 

I certainly don't think a quiet (but cold) pattern is unreasonable for at least M-F next week. As I've mentioned I think next weekend, prior to reload, we have a chance. 

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Well, I will say that many of the :weenie: posts lead by Kevin were locking in 3 accumulating snowfalls starting with Wednesday of this week, then the Saturday deal, and then next Tuesday.

 

It was pretty easy to post 4 days ago and said that all of those looked tenuous at best.

 

I certainly don't think a quiet (but cold) pattern is unreasonable for at least M-F next week. As I've mentioned I think next weekend, prior to reload, we have a chance. 

I think a lot of the angst eminates from the fact that we are coming  out of a rather mundane 2 week thaw, and this reload has been greatly anticipated to say the least....so kicking it off with another 10 days of cold and dry is going to have a lot of folks ready to smoke a tail pipe at the prospect of having to endure nearly a month of ennui on the heals of what was a fun stretch.

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I think a lot of the angst eminates from the fact that we are coming  out of a rather mundane 2 week thaw, and this reload has been greatly anticipated to say the least....so kicking it off with another 10 days of cold and dry is going to have a lot of folks ready to smoke a tail pipe at the prospect of having to endure nearly a month of ennui on the heals of what was a fun stretch.

deja vu from last year, total deja vu

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Well, I will say that many of the :weenie:posts lead by Kevin were locking in 3 accumulating snowfalls starting with Wednesday of this week, then the Saturday deal, and then next Tuesday.

 

It was pretty easy to post 4 days ago and said that all of those looked tenuous at best.

 

I certainly don't think a quiet (but cold) pattern is unreasonable for at least M-F next week. As I've mentioned I think next weekend, prior to reload, we have a chance. 

 

 

Well that goes without saying. Locking in tedious snow threats 8 days out is just as bad as punting the rest of January for cold/dry like some were doing.

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Need the SE ridge to flex a bit-get a battleground going.  A big dump of a cold PV into the area isn't going to do much for snow chances...

 

You probably don't want that. At least if you're looking for more significant storm opportunities

 

There's already +NAO ridging over the N Atlantic. Any height rising over the SE will just increase mass gradients, increase upper level winds, shearing apart any disturbance that gets in that flow.

 

What you'd like to see is -NAO blocking develop, with lower heights across the Atlantic, and higher heights toward the Davis Straits.

 

By actually lowering heights over the SE, disturbances have a much easier time amplifying. And just through that process, troughs will break NEward, with significant coastal cyclogenesis, etc.

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You probably don't want that. At least if you're looking for more significant storm opportunities

 

There's already +NAO ridging over the N Atlantic. Any height rising over the SE will just increase mass gradients, increase upper level winds, shearing apart any disturbance that gets in that flow.

 

What you'd like to see is -NAO blocking develop, with lower heights across the Atlantic, and higher heights toward the Davis Straits.

 

By actually lowering heights over the SE, disturbances have a much easier time amplifying. And just through that process, troughs will break NEward, with significant coastal cyclogenesis, etc.

Good explanation-thank you!

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Last year I think it was more warranted.....this season, I think its more a manifestation of the season's variability into folks' psyches.

I was more talking about the physicality of the situation. The analogs, pattern, all suggest a big storm is the result but many folks are saying wasted cold. The period dryness will all be forgotten like last year. 

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You probably don't want that. At least if you're looking for more significant storm opportunities

There's already +NAO ridging over the N Atlantic. Any height rising over the SE will just increase mass gradients, increase upper level winds, shearing apart any disturbance that gets in that flow.

What you'd like to see is -NAO blocking develop, with lower heights across the Atlantic, and higher heights toward the Davis Straits.

By actually lowering heights over the SE, disturbances have a much easier time amplifying. And just through that process, troughs will break NEward, with significant coastal cyclogenesis, etc.

I actually think the SE ridge would help a bit as the PV retros a bit. We aren't really seeing a -NAO and no real subtropical jet to help lower heights over the SE until maybe heights lower out west. So with ridging there in combo with a retro PV you almost have a SWFE type deal. I think we will see heights rise a bit and some milder air move into the easy to start Feb. That may also come with SWFE type stuff or Milller Bs.

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I actually think the SE ridge would help a bit as the PV retros a bit. We aren't really seeing a -NAO and no real subtropical jet to help lower heights over the SE until maybe heights lower out west. So with ridging there in combo with a retro PV you almost have a SWFE type deal. I think we will see heights rise a bit and some milder air move into the easy to start Feb. That may also come with SWFE type stuff or Milller Bs.

You can see on the 12z as the pv retros west things get a lot more active. In all honesty thur-sat should be watch for eastern New England and after that I feel we get a bigger threat

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Well that goes without saying. Locking in tedious snow threats 8 days out is just as bad as punting the rest of January for cold/dry like some were doing.

 

LOL yeah... punting the rest of January is foolish as is locking in deep snow cover and multiple wintry threats over the next 7 days. I think many have accurately predicted an ugly period of thaw and the potential for a dry/snowless start to the cold streak. Those voices of reasons have been drowned out by the :weenie: marching band. 

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I actually think the SE ridge would help a bit as the PV retros a bit. We aren't really seeing a -NAO and no real subtropical jet to help lower heights over the SE until maybe heights lower out west. So with ridging there in combo with a retro PV you almost have a SWFE type deal. I think we will see heights rise a bit and some milder air move into the easy to start Feb. That may also come with SWFE type stuff or Milller Bs.

 

That's why I made a point of saying "significant" storms. Maybe should've said "major"? haha. But anything with a SE ridge will be fast moving, only having a very narrow stripe of WAA and DVA forcing just north of the low track. I don't think there would really be much chance of decent Miller B development either.

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LOL yeah... punting the rest of January is foolish as is locking in deep snow cover and multiple wintry threats over the next 7 days. I think many have accurately predicted an ugly period of thaw and the potential for a dry/snowless start to the cold streak. Those voices of reasons have been drowned out by the :weenie: marching band. 

actually I read the opposite, seems the great majority here who understand the processes involved and have not jumped on any one threat. of course hearing and reading on TV and print when Mets put in possible big storm next week creates some of the expectations..

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LOL yeah... punting the rest of January is foolish as is locking in deep snow cover and multiple wintry threats over the next 7 days. I think many have accurately predicted an ugly period of thaw and the potential for a dry/snowless start to the cold streak. Those voices of reasons have been drowned out by the :weenie: marching band. 

 

 

Yeah I agree...patience was preached, but it's usually never taken to heart. I thought 1/22 was a decent threat but it looks to be going by the wayside now, but we could still get a modest event from that in the form of more of a clipper.

 

But certainly beyond that we'll have chances. I posted earlier in this thread several days ago that I'd be disappointed if the Jan 20-31 period didn't produce. I still feel that way. I'd feel a bit fleeced if we went the whole rest of the month with nothing...though you certainly cannot rule out the possibility. At the minimum, I'd expect some minor events and still think there is a pretty good chance for something moderate/major.

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actually I read the opposite, seems the great majority here who understand the processes involved and have not jumped on any one threat. of course hearing and reading on TV and print when Mets put in possible big storm next week creates some of the expectations..

 

It's a D6-D7 forecast. I think putting in a chance for snow was a reasonable call at the time but again... that's  D6-D7 forecast without much wiggle room. 

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It's a D6-D7 forecast. I think putting in a chance for snow was a reasonable call at the time but again... that's  D6-D7 forecast without much wiggle room. 

wasn"t speaking specifically of you though, there were many cute teasers on TV this week, major pattern change return to cold with a possible significant storm next week I am watching, details at 11, la di da di da...

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The PV retrogression by the 28th, just as ridging flexes its muscles over Alaska and the arctic. That's when a larger winter event could happen.

 

HM posted these thoughts 3 days ago too. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Something that unfortunately has been lacking.

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2011-2012 was a game changer. After that winter you appreciate what falls. Life has become too busy for me to whine about snow. There is just a lot more that's important.

Haha okay okay we get it. You have a kid and own a house but you aren't fooling anyone weenie! You can't be too busy to have nine billion posts. You want it to snow just as bad!!

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I was more talking about the physicality of the situation. The analogs, pattern, all suggest a big storm is the result but many folks are saying wasted cold. The period dryness will all be forgotten like last year

I mean over the course of the next week...the "dryness".

I'm not speaking of the next month in its entirety.

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